Q4 2010

Views:
 
Category: Education
     
 

Presentation Description

No description available.

Comments

Presentation Transcript

Strategic Investment OverviewQ4 2010 : 

Strategic Investment OverviewQ4 2010

The Fear Index : 

The Fear Index

The Fear Index now : 

The Fear Index now

A Brighter World Since Last Quarter : 

A Brighter World Since Last Quarter Asian stocks hit two-year high S&P best month in a decade 3. VIX (Fear Index)

Slide 5: 

All Four Prongs Working Asset Class YTD return Gain since Last Quarter Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging + 2% + 9% + 13% + 17%

Slide 6: 

All Four Prongs Working Asset Class YTD return Gain since Last Quarter Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging Credit + 2% + 9% + 11% + 13% + 17% + 9%

Slide 7: 

All Four Prongs Working Asset Class YTD return Gain since Last Quarter Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging Credit Hedge + 2% + 9% + 11% + 0% + 13% + 17% + 9% + 1%

Slide 8: 

All Four Prongs Working Asset Class YTD return Gain since Last Quarter Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging Credit Hedge + 2% + 9% + 11% + 0% + 3% + 13% + 17% + 9% + 1% + 14% Commodities & Energy

Slide 9: 

All Four Prongs Working Asset Class YTD return Average Fund Return YTD Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging Credit Hedge + 2% + 9% + 11% + 0% + 3% + 8% + 12% + 7% - 1% + 5% Commodities & Energy

Understanding The Dynamics : 

Understanding The Dynamics Global Growth – where it’s coming from Inflation/ Deflation/ Reflation 3. Currencies, currencies, currencies

Global Growth: Where it’s coming from : 

Global Growth: Where it’s coming from The world in two parts: Developed economies Emerging economies

Global Growth (GDP%): Where it’s coming from : 

Global Growth (GDP%): Where it’s coming from Quantitative Easing has worked: Promoted strong growth in Emerging economies Emerging Economies doing well and moving ahead

Global Growth (GDP%): Where it’s coming from : 

Global Growth (GDP%): Where it’s coming from China India Emerging Economies 10.5% 9.7% 7.1%

Shift in the Economic Centre of Gravity : 

Shift in the Economic Centre of Gravity Strong China Growth Drives strong Asia Growth Drives Commodity producers supplying Asia Drives Domestic growth Imports Western goods/ services

Slide 15: 

Shift in the Economic Centre of Gravity

Slide 16: 

2030: China will ADD more city dwellers than the size of the US population India’s share of global GDP already bigger than UK’s In 12 years India and China economy’s will be 60% of US Shift in the Economic Centre of Gravity

Shift in the Economic Centre of Gravity : 

Healthy export market Low interest rates Attractive valuations Shift in the Economic Centre of Gravity

Inflation/ Deflation/ Reflation : 

Emerging Markets Inflation = 5.9% India Inflation = 8.5% Clear Western policy changes Inflation/ Deflation/ Reflation

Currencies, Currencies, Currencies : 

Shift in the Economic Centre of gravity Currencies, Currencies, Currencies

Currencies, Currencies, Currencies : 

Increases exports Currencies, Currencies, Currencies A Weak Currency: Reduces real cost of deficits Promotes GDP growth Allowing economic restructuring Promotes new growth areas

Currencies, Currencies, Currencies : 

Developed Market currencies need to weaken Emerging Market currencies need to strengthen Currencies, Currencies, Currencies Necessary and Unavoidable

Currencies, Currencies, Currencies : 

Gradual change to currency strengths China’s massive Foreign Reserves Currencies, Currencies, Currencies

Slide 23: 

All Four Prongs Working Portfolio Over/ Under weight USD EURO £ - - 5% - 2% + 4% - 40% - 15% 0% + 400% EM Currencies Global Weighting + 62% + 27% + 4% + 7% Portfolio Over/ Under weight YTD Change Against USD

The Decision Quadrant : 

The Decision Quadrant Long Term Long Term Short Term Short Term Buy now Accumulate Avoid Reduce / DCA

High Conviction: : 

High Conviction: Rational basis for positioning with conviction Then living with the short term volatility EM Equity markets Credit markets Inflation Defense Protect with Hedge

A Brighter World : 

A Brighter World