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Can we say goodbye to the MSY theory and a pessimistic view of the state of the world fisheries? : 

Can we say goodbye to the MSY theory and a pessimistic view of the state of the world fisheries? FAO suggested that the total world landings do not increase any more. The Maximum Sustainable Yield theory always guarantees the stock persistence; The adaptive management is one of the best ways against uncertain ecosystems. Anonymous straw man says

Can we say goodbye to the MSY theory and a pessimistic view of the state of the world fisheries? : 

Can we say goodbye to the MSY theory and a pessimistic view of the state of the world fisheries? FAO suggested that the total world landings do not increase any more. The Maximum Sustainable Yield theory always guarantees the stock persistence; The adaptive management is one of the best ways against uncertain ecosystems. I say the adaptive management sometimes results in undesired outcomes; I say the MSY theory does not guarantee coexistence of species = food web constraint; 4WFC organizer gave us the title of “getting more fish and reconciling fisheries with conservation”;

Today’s my talk: 

Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

Can the world catch not really increase?: 

Can the world catch not really increase? http://www.fao.org/fi/publ/circular/c920/intro.asp#A2 Species base statistics

Landings of demersal marine fish has not grown since 1970s （FAO1996): 

Landings of demersal marine fish has not grown since 1970s （FAO1996) http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/FISHERY/publ/sofia/fig5e.asp

Landings of small pelagic fish is still increasing with fluctuation: 

Landings of small pelagic fish is still increasing with fluctuation http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/FISHERY/publ/sofia/fig4e.asp

Fishing Down– Is this bad?: 

Fig. 1. Global trends of mean trophic level of fisheries landings, 1950 to 1994 Pauly et al. (Science1998:279:860;) Fishing Down– Is this bad? Marine areas inland areas mean trophic level Catch of lower trophic levels is a smaller impact. Decrease of mean trophic level in environment is bad.

I often eat lower trophic level fish, but should eat more.: 

21 I often eat lower trophic level fish, but should eat more. 650 yen (US$6) with coffee

Whales consume fish more than human(Tamura & Ohsumi 1997): 

Whales consume fish more than human (Tamura & Ohsumi 1997)

“Initial” and recent biomass of whales: 

“Initial” and recent biomass of whales Source: SeaWorld web site except minke whales (F. Kasamatsu, book in Japanese)

Nothern Pacific minke whales eat anchovy.: 

http://www.icrwhale.org/02-E.htm Nothern Pacific minke whales eat anchovy.

Two phenotypes of whales-fisheries competition idea : 

Two phenotypes of whales-fisheries competition idea By Japan Gov. Whales destroy the ocean. “...in a complicated food web structure, indirect effects of culling top predator (whales) on abundance of target fish is either positive or negative,...” 　By Yodzis 2001 Trend Ecol Evol Fisheries destroy the ocean.

Who is more familiar with environment?Rich or poor nations?Analysis of Ecological footprint （source WWF 2002): 

Who is more familiar with environment? Rich or poor nations? Analysis of Ecological footprint （source WWF 2002) http://www.wwf.or.jp/activity/lpr2002/ EFP: global ha/person

My comments on whale-fisheries competition: 

My comments on whale-fisheries competition Top predators eat fish more than human We can get more fish if top predators decrease Top predators have decreased. Whales eat anchovy, do not directly compete with human or fisheries. We must consider reconciling with conservation

Pelagic fish stock is unstable-- species replacement --: 

Pelagic fish stock is unstable -- species replacement -- Matsuda & Katsukawa 2002 Fish Oceangr

Cyclic Advantage HypothesisMatsuda et al. (1992) Res. Pop. Ecol. 34:309-319 : 

Cyclic Advantage Hypothesis Matsuda et al. (1992) Res. Pop. Ecol. 34:309-319 The next dominant to sardine is anchovy – -- Yes! As I predicted in 1992. The second next is chub mackerel -- Many people agree now

Why did sardine stock collapse in 1990s?: 

Why did sardine stock collapse in 1990s? Natural fluctuation (Watanabe et al. 1995 CJFAS) Failure of recruitments (getting older) Fallacy of critical period theory We can get more sardine in 1980s, more anchovy and Pacific saury now. At low stock level, fishing pressure may prevent from recovering...

Q&A: 

Q&A Q: Will western Pacific chub mackerel really recover? A: It depends on the fishing pressure

Large fluctuation of recruitmentin Northeastern Pacific chub mackerel: 

Large fluctuation of recruitment in Northeastern Pacific chub mackerel Strong year classes appeared twice Kawai et al. 2002 Fish Sci

Strong year classes were caught before the age at maturity: 

Strong year classes were caught before the age at maturity Kawai et al. 2002 Fish Sci

Fishers missed chance of recoveryKawai,…,Matsuda, Fish. Sci. 2002: 

Fishers missed chance of recovery Kawai,…,Matsuda, Fish. Sci. 2002 actual stock abundance (million tons)

Probability of stock recoveryKawai,…,Matsuda 2002 Fish Sci: 

Probability of stock recovery Kawai,…,Matsuda 2002 Fish Sci The decade of 1990s was “Japan’s lost 10 years” Probability of stock recovery

Future of Pelagic Fish Populations in the north-western Pacific:: 

Future of Pelagic Fish Populations in the north-western Pacific: If overfishing of immatures continues, Chub mackerel will not recover forever; If cyclic replacement hypothesis is true, Sardine will not recover forever; Do not catch immatures too much The overfishing is an experiment for my hypothesis. (Adaptive mismanagement)

Today’s my talk: 

Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield Theory: 

Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield Theory Ecosystems are uncertain, non-equilibrium and complex. MSY theory ignores all the three. Does MSY theory guarantee species persistence? - No!! Stock abundance surplus production

Kyoto Declaration and Plan of Action on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security in 1992 (FAO): 

Kyoto Declaration and Plan of Action on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security in 1992 (FAO) Article 14 “When and where appropriate, consider harvesting multiple trophic levels in a manner consistent with sustainable development of these resources”. http://www.fao.org/fi/agreem/kyoto/kyoe.asp

Examples of biological community at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams in review): 

2 5 4 Examples of biological community at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams in review) 1 2 3 5 6 (b) 1 2 3 5 6 4 (a) 1 2 5 (c) Solution maximizing total yield from community MSY solution often reduces species and links; 1 2 6 4 (d) 1 3 6 (e)

Examples of biological community at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams in review): 

Examples of biological community at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams in review) 1 2 3 5 6 (b) 1 2 3 5 6 4 (a) 1 2 5 (c) 4 3 6 4 exploit more species, more trophic levels. 1 2 6 4 (d) 1 3 6 (e) Constrained MSY that guarantee coexistence

Conclusion of story 2: 

Conclusion of story 2 MSY theory does not guarantee species coexistence Fisheries must take care of biodiversity conservation explicitly = Foodweb constraint to reconciling fisheries with conservation

Today’s my talk: 

Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

Feedback control in fishing effort is powerful...: 

Feedback control in fishing effort is powerful... A straw man says; Even though the MSY level is unknown, the feedback control stabilizes a broad range of target stock level. Stock size N f(N)

Feedback control with community interactions also result in undesired outcomes.(M & A in preparation): 

Feedback control with community interactions also result in undesired outcomes. (M & A in preparation) r = (0.454,1.059,1.186,0.247,-0.006,-0.028,-0.059,-0.704,-0.308,-0.238) A = (aji) = e9 = 0.1, ei = 0

Feedback control may result in extinction of other species (sp. 6).: 

Feedback control may result in extinction of other species (sp. 6). de9/dt = u(N9-N9*) ratio

Conclusion of story 3: 

Conclusion of story 3 Single stock monitoring is dangerous Target stock level is much more sensitive than we have considered in single stock models. We must monitor not only stock level of target species, but also the “entire” ecosystem.

Today’s my talk: 

Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

Recommendations #1: 

Recommendations #1 Do fishing down in food items!! Eat small pelagic fishes We can eat more fish, not use as fish meal!! Reduce discards before and after landings (our dishes); Establish food market of temporally fluctuating fishes at lower trophic levels Improve technology for effective use of lower trophic levels (Japan Soc. of Fisheries) Seafoods)

Recommendations #2: 

Recommendations #2 Switch a target fish for sp. replacement (Matsuda & Katsukawa 2002 Fish. Oceanogr) Monitor the ecosystems Conserve immatures; Improve technology for selective fishing Conserve both fishes and fisheries; Say goodbye to MSY reference points;

I express sincere thanks to : 

I express sincere thanks to The organizers for comfortable hospitality, especially Yvonne Sadovy; The audience who chose this session; I apologize that I must confess that I said as the straw man said; my English is very awk; I looked for positive answer for the session title