scenarios vienna

Scenarios in Education: 

Scenarios in Education Instruments for reflection, learning and innovation Comenius course Scenario Writing in Education Vienna, September 2004 ATEE/RDC19

Imagine: A bustrip to Rome: 

Imagine: A bustrip to Rome The Roman-Catholic Touringcar Organization The Roman-Catholic Travel Agency The Touringcar Organization for RC Travels The Consultancy Office for RC Travels

The Roman-Catholic Touringcar Organization: 

The Roman-Catholic Touringcar Organization fixed route RC church (the national Archbishop) decides on the destination, required quality and price Driver is experienced, entertaining, caring for needs of passengers Passengers don’t have to bother: sit back and relax

The Roman-Catholic Travel Agency RCTA : 

fixed destination, alternative routes RC church (the national Archbishop) decides on the destination, required quality and price Passengers have individual wishes (sight seeing, stop-over, boarding half way) Drivers need to be flexible in using alternative routes (touristic, express, …) The Roman-Catholic Travel Agency RCTA Amsterdam Rome

The Touringcar Organisation for RC Travels : 

The Touringcar Organisation for RC Travels Alternative destinations, fixed routes Local parish decides on the destination, required quality and price Driver is experienced on different destinations Fixed price for minimum number of passengers Amsterdam Rome Santiago Lourdes

The Consultancy Office for RC Travels CORCT: 

The Consultancy Office for RC Travels CORCT Alternative destinations, fixed routes Local parish decides on the destination, required quality, price, route, type of transport, … Local priest can act as travel guide, local parisher/truckdriver is hired as busdriver CORCT is a negotiating office and expertise center, offering broad range of services Rome Santiago Lourdes Amsterdam

A bustrip to Rome: 

A bustrip to Rome Central steering Flexible routes Fixed routes Local autonomy The future of education?

Why scenarios: 

Pupils Why scenarios The context of education is changing Society Schools Learning Teachers Lifelong learning Mobility Status of the teacher Collaborative work Job careers Teacher shortage ICT & knowledge society Market approach Lifelong learning Cultural diversity and tension Economic challenges/competition Need for values Professional organisations Autonomy HRM Shared responsibility Work based learning Reflective learning Competence/standards based learning Work based learning Collaborative learning Authentic learning Growing diversity Resources outside school Risks of drop-outs Competition with other media/entertainment

Why Scenarios: 

Why Scenarios Starting point for changes in education The problems of today? Developments in the future? Internal concerns? Developments and needs of society? Ad hoc? Based on an explicit view on education for the future?

Goal of scenarios: 

Goal of scenarios To get free of the traditional frame of reference To anticipate the future instead of reacting on the past To become sensitive to trends and changes in the environment To stimulate imagination and creativity

What are scenarios?: 

What are scenarios? No predictions of the future Descriptions of possible ‘futures’ Descriptions, images, maps, ‘a day in the life of …’, etc. Instruments for awareness, strategy and decisionmaking

Scenarios are no forecasts: 

Scenarios are no forecasts

What are scenarios?: 

“Scenarios are stories. They are works of art, rather than scientific analyses. The reliability (of the content) is less important than the types of conversations, learning and decisions they spark” What are scenarios?

Scenarios for (teacher) education: 

Scenarios for (teacher) education Four scenarios for the future of public education (GBN, 1986) Six scenarios for the future of schooling by the OECD (2002) Four scenarios for the future of teacher education (ATEE/RDC19, 2002) Four scenarios for the future of teacher education in The Netherlands (VELON, 2003) Four scenarios for the future of eLearning

GBN: Scenarios for the future of public education (1986): 

GBN: Scenarios for the future of public education (1986) Hierarchical Participatory Inclusive Exclusive Orthodoxies Wired for learning Learning society Orthodoxy

OECD-scenarios (2001): 

OECD-scenarios (2001) 1 Robust bureaucratic organisations that are resistant against change 2 Extending the market-model: private-commercial companies get access to the education market 3 Schools as core professional development centres with strong bonds with society 4 Schools as learning organisations and expertise- and assessmentcentre

OECD-scenarios: 

OECD-scenarios 5 Learner networks: Communities organise their own education through non-formal professional development networks 6 ‘Meltdown’: Low status of the teaching profession, decrease of the number of teachers, decrease in the faith of society in education, decrease in the willingness to invest in education.

ATEE-scenarios (2001): 

ATEE-scenarios (2001) Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Individualism Idealism Pragmatism Social Coherence

ATEE-scenarios: 

ATEE-scenarios Individualism Idealism Pragmatism Social Coherence

Dutch scenarios for TE: 

Dutch scenarios for TE General facility of society Competencies Curriculum Market activity

Scenario 1: 

Scenario 1 Fixed curriculum, regulated and funded by the government Like a Roman Catholic bus company: - A bus trip to Rome - fixed route - RC church (the national Archbishop) decides on the destination, required quality and price

Scenario 4: 

Scenario 4 Competence based flexible curriculum, regulated and funded by the schools Like a travel agency for RC travels: - no fixed destination: Rome, Lourdes, Taizé, Vienna, ... - different routes and startingpoints - different demands concering the destination, route, required quality, price - local priest as travel guide - they even can do without the travel agency

Scenarios for the future of eLearning (2004): 

Scenarios for the future of eLearning (2004)

The use of scenarios 1: 

The use of scenarios 1 Strategic desicions: What is the best future? What can we do to make it happen? What if …? Are you prepared?

The use of scenarios 2: 

Reflection and learning Opening up perspectives (restrictions of here and now) Making sense of trends and developments Stimulating reflection by imagination and creativity (changing mental maps) Stimulating group discussions and group reflections on the future  collaborative learning The use of scenarios 2

The use of scenarios 3: 

“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands, but seeing with new eyes” The use of scenarios 3

Developing scenarios: Step 1 Defining fields of change: 

Developing scenarios: Step 1 Defining fields of change Defining the context: Key question (The future of primary and secondary education in Europe) and time-frame (10 years) Identifying important fields of change E.g.: Suppose you have access to an oracle, what questions regarding the future of (the relevant context of) education do you want to be answered?

Developing scenarios: Step 2Selecting important dilemmas and trends: 

Developing scenarios: Step 2 Selecting important dilemmas and trends Analyse the importance of the FoCh: - Impact on education is high or low - Unpredictability of the change is high or low

Selecting key-dilemmas: 

Selecting key-dilemmas Unpredictability

Developing scenarios: Step 3 Setting up the scenario-matrix: 

Developing scenarios: Step 3 Setting up the scenario-matrix Select the two most important dilemmas Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 3 Dilemma 1 Dilemma 2

Developing scenarios: Step 4 The scenarios coming to life: 

Developing scenarios: Step 4 The scenarios coming to life Make a description of each scenario Criteria: Consistent Plausible Challenging Recognizable E.g.: a day in the life of a pupil/teacher/teacher educator, the architecture of the building, pictures, organisation models, metaphors, newspapers, etc. Each scenario is attractive and inviting!!!

Using scenarios in education: 

Using scenarios in education With pupils With students With teachers With management On team level, institutional level, local level, national level, international level.

Learning by doing: 

Learning by doing Design your own scenarios (two groups) Present them to the other group (Thursday afternoon) Reflection on the scenario (Friday) Reflection on the scenario method and possibilities to use it in your own situation (Friday)

Resources: 

Resources Scenarios for the future of Teacher Education in Europe. ATEE/RDC19 2001 www.lhs.se/atee/papers/scenario_document.doc Schooling for Tomorrow. What schools for the future? OECD 2001 www.oecd.org