HPAI risk perception of poultry keepers in Egypt

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Presented during the 13th ISVEE conference in Maastricht 20-24 August 2012

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Perceptions of HPAI risk among traditional poultry keepers in Egypt:

Perceptions of HPAI risk among traditional poultry keepers in Egypt Ellen Geerlings Livestock Development Group School of Agriculture, Policy and Development

Overview :

Overview A brief introduction to: HPAI in Egypt Risk perception Traditional poultry sector in Egypt Methodology & data analysis Results Conclusion

HPAI H5N1 in Egypt:

HPAI H5N1 in Egypt First outbreaks in February 2006. Egypt hardest hit country outside Asia: To date168 H5N1 confirmed human cases, with 60 fatalities (CFR=36%) . Over 40 million birds culled in the first wave of outbreaks. HPAI now endemic in Egypt: outbreaks are regularly reported from different governorates.

Risk perception:

Risk perception Risk: the likelihood of an HPAI outbreak occurring, and the extent of perceived consequences, i.e. severity. Emotional factors also contribute towards risk perception. ‘Measuring’ risk perception: participant rating of the likelihood of infection & severity i.e. human or poultry fatality.

The traditional poultry sector in Egypt:

The traditional poultry sector in Egypt Poultry is a major and for some the only animal protein source in rural areas . A large proportion (80-90%) of households in rural areas keep poultry . Poultry keeping is one of the very few income generating activities available to women.

The traditional poultry sector in Egypt and…:

The traditional poultry sector in Egypt and…

…the poultry keepers and their birds:

…the poultry keepers and their birds

What threats does HPAI pose to these poultry keepers? :

What threats does HPAI pose to these poultry keepers?

Methods The study site:

Methods The study site Participants lived in 24 villages in four different Governorates

Methods:

Methods Sample Data analyses 140 individual interviews Levels of risk were assessed via a 3-point Likert -scale: Human infection probability Flock infection probability Flock infection severity Levels of fear were assessed using a 3-point Likert - scale: Flock infection Content analyses Non-parametric tests: Pearson’s chi-square test and Fisher’s exact test Parametric tests: Independent t-test

Results:

Results

Perceptions of likelihood of human infection :

Perceptions of likelihood of human infection ‘Imagine this village being infected with bird flu, how likely or probable would it be that you or your family members would be infected? ’ ‘not likely’ = Low ‘somewhat likely’ = Medium ‘very likely’ = High

Rationales for low and high perceptions of likelihood of human infection with HPAI:

Rationales for low and high perceptions of likelihood of human infection with HPAI High Beliefs about HPAI : HPAI is an airborne disease χ 2 (1, N =108), p< . 005 Contact levels: Human-poultry contact χ 2 (1, N = 108), p< . 005 Low Control practices: R eduction of human-poultry contact χ 2 (1, N = 108) p< .0001 Hygiene χ 2 (1, N = 108) p< . 05 Beliefs about HPAI: Scepticism about human susceptibility χ 2 (1, N = 108 ) p< . 005 On average those with low risk perception experienced more outbreaks in their flock ( M=1.09, SD= 0.17) than those with high risk perceptions (M =0.63, SD= 0.12), t(83)=2.23, p<0.05

Perceptions of likelihood of flock infection with HPAI:

Perceptions of likelihood of flock infection with HPAI ‘Imagine this village being infected with bird flu, how likely or probable would it be that your flock would be infected?’ ‘ not likely’ = Low ‘somewhat likely’ = Medium ‘very likely’ = High

Rationales for low and high perceptions of likelihood of flock infection with HPAI:

Rationales for low and high perceptions of likelihood of flock infection with HPAI High Beliefs about HPAI : HPAI is an airborne disease χ 2 (1, N = 89), p< . 0001 Infection is spread by wild birds χ 2 (1, N = 89), p< .0001 Low Control practices: R eduction of contact between flocks χ 2 (1, N = 89), p< . 05 R educe flock size or stop keeping poultry χ 2 (1, N = 89), p < . 05 On average those with low risk perception experienced less outbreaks (M =0.76, SD= 0.16) than those with high risk perceptions (M =0.76, SD= 0.17), t(74)=2.00, p<0.05

Perceptions of severity of flock infection with HPAI:

Perceptions of severity of flock infection with HPAI ‘Imagine this village being infected with bird flu, how severe (morbidity/mortality) would it affect the health of your poultry flock if they would be infected?’ ‘not severe’ = Low ‘somewhat severe’ = Medium ‘very severe’ = High

Rationales for low and high perceptions of severity of flock infection with HPAI:

Rationales for low and high perceptions of severity of flock infection with HPAI High Exposure: High mortality rates χ 2 (1, N = 80) , p< .0001 Previous infection in own flock χ 2 (1, N = 79) , p< . 0005 Low Control practices: Vaccination χ 2 (1, N = 89), p< . 05 On average those with low risk perception experienced less outbreaks (M =0.67, SD= 0.15) than those with high risk perceptions (M =1.31, SD= 0.19), t(51)=-2.12, p<0.05

Fear of flock infection:

Fear of flock infection ‘Imagine this village being infected with bird flu, how afraid would you be that your poultry flock would be infected ?’ ‘not afraid’ = Low ‘somewhat afraid’ = Medium ‘very afraid’ = High

Rationales for low vs. high fear for flock infection:

Rationales for low vs. high fear for flock infection High Livelihood impact: Food security χ 2 (1, N = 91) , p< .0001 Loss of investment χ 2 (1, N = 91) , p< . 005 Low Control practices: Reduce flock size or stopped k eeping poultry χ 2 (1, N = 91) , p< . 01 On average the number of outbreaks (2006-2010) was lower for those with ‘low’ fear (M=0.47, SD=0.13) compared to those with ‘high’ fear (M=1.21, SD=1.21), t(86)=-3.67, p<.0001 On average food insecurity score was lower for those with ‘low’ fear ( M =1.88, SD= 0.40) compared to those with ‘high’ fear (M =3.17, SD =0.28) , t (58) = -2.76, p<. 01

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