The case for AGI

Slide 1: 

Testing testing testing David Wood - Principal, Delta Wisdom Blog: http://dw2blog.com Twitter: @dw2

Slide 2: 

The case for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) David Wood - Principal, Delta Wisdom Blog: http://dw2blog.com Twitter: @dw2

HardwareSoftwareNetworked : 

HardwareSoftwareNetworked Machines withHuman+ level of intelligence Analyse huge amounts of data Review hypotheses Discern patterns Propose hypotheses Propose experiments Recommend actions Supplement human reasoning

Human problemsdeserving super-intelligence : 

Human problemsdeserving super-intelligence What uses of nanotechnology can be recommended, to safely boost the creation of healthy food? What are the causes of different diseases – and cures? Methods of earthquake prediction – and prevention? Are there safe geo-engineering methods that will head off the threat of global warming, without nasty side effects? What changes, if any, should be made to the systems of regulating the international economy, to prevent dreadful market failures? Which existential risks deserve the most attention?

Implementing super-intelligence : 

Implementing super-intelligence Individual hardware power (accelerating)

Improvement in supercomputer power : 

Improvement in supercomputer power Source: Shane Legg, http://www.vetta.org/2009/12/tick-tock-tick-tock-bing/

Limits to growth(?) : 

Limits to growth(?) All exponential acceleration comes to an end Skyscrapers ... Empire State Building (1931) Passenger airplane speed ... Concorde (1969) Lack of customer interest -> growth stalls We could have gone to Mars by now... Will Moore’s Law run out of steam? Intel has, on several occasions predicted that Moore’s Law will last at least another 10 years It’s a question of society’s motivation And of whether we can solve system issues

Implementing super-intelligence : 

Implementing super-intelligence Individual hardware power (accelerating) Software algorithms (lots of room to improve) Compound hardware power, when many different computers are networked together Number of developers and researchers who are applying themselves to the problem The ability to take advantage of previous results (“to stand on the shoulders of giants”) Coordination rather than chaos The ability to learn from study of human brains The degree of motivation applied

Example of motivation surge : 

Example of motivation surge Motivation for people studying powered flight “Cranks” studied this for 100s of years Often with fatal consequences Internal breakthrough: 1903 Wright brothers solved engineering problems Light structure; mechanisms for balance Restricted public knowledge at this time External breakthrough: 1908 Wright brother public flight demo at Paris “Aviation went from a screwball hobby to the rage of the age and kept that cachet for decades” The amount of development took off enormously

Motivations for progress in AI : 

Motivations for progress in AI Deep human problems deserving super-intelligence To improve the interface to large search databases, so that users can more quickly find material Accelerating language translation To improve the user experience of interacting with complex software The need for games to provide ever more realistic “AI” features for the virtual characters in these games The “arms race” with spam detection systems To save costs via automation, and via robots To research ideas about the nature of mind To research ideas about uploading human minds For the joy of creating new life forms To prevent competitors getting there first

The development of super-intelligence : 

The development of super-intelligence Maturingsub-components Commercial motivations Human motivations Supportive infrastructure Numerous researchers

Slide 12: 

Preventive medicine Better than well Anti-aging treatments Improved reasoning skills Freedomfrom fundamentalism Education aboutaccelerating technology Cognitive enhancement& intelligence augmentation Artificial general intelligence Robotics supporting humans Nanotechnology Synthetic biology Large-scale clean energy Next generation ICT Patent system reform Smart market regulation Collaborative voluntary enterprise Vibrant democratic involvement Expansion of human autonomy New measures ofhuman accomplishment Geo-engineering capability