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Climate change impacts and policy in Mexico Dr. Adrián Fernández Bremauntz Instituto Nacional Ecología, Mexico XIV Meeting of the Canada/Mexico/U.S. Trilateral Committee for Wildlife and Ecosystem Conservation and Management Miami, Florida USA May 12, 2009

Carbon dioxide concentrations over time : 

Carbon dioxide concentrations over time (Source: IPCC AR4, 2007)

Surface temperature anomaly : 

Surface temperature anomaly Source: NASA, J. Hansen

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Impacts of Climate Change on Multiple Cropping Production Potential of Rain-fed Cereals Max-Planck Institute/ECHAM4 2080s Heterogeneity of climate change impacts

Impacts of climate change : 

Impacts of climate change Source: IPCC AR4, 2007

Disaster costs (billions of US dollars) : 

Disaster costs (billions of US dollars) Source: IPCC, AR4 WGII, 2007

Global distribution of vulnerability to climate change : 

Global distribution of vulnerability to climate change

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Growing desertification in the Central and North portions of Mexico. Reduction of agricultural potential. Difficulties for water supply in several areas. Flooding in coastal areas. Increase of extreme hydro-meteorological events. General effects in forest areas (forest degradation and increase in fires) and hydrological effects. Loss of biodiversity. Impacts on human health. Most important effects of climate change in Mexico

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Scenarios for temperature and precipitation in Mexico It is very likely that temperatures will be between 2 and 4°C warmer in average for 2050-2080 (in respect to 2000), with the greatest increase in the North. Precipitation during winter will decease by 15% in the central portion of Mexico, and 5% in the Gulf region. During summer, 5% less rain in the central portion of México. Rain season will be delayed.

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Water availability: projections to 2030 Over the next decades an increased stress on water availability is expected, due to the impacts of climate change, and this situation that may worsen due to the pressure already imposed by economic development and population growth. At the national level, a 10% decrease on water availability is expected by 2030, compared to 2000, according to scenarios Baja California and Sonora, on the Northwest of Mexico, will be facing a critical situation. The South and Southeast of Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, may face a medium to high stress over water availability. Stress on water as a resource -present day Stress by 2030

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Changes on Mexican soil aptitude for rain-dependant maize cultivation under climate change scenario A2 Climate scenarios for 2020 project a moderate reduction on the soil aptitude for rain-dependant maize cultivation. An additional 4.2% of land will not be adequate for maize cultivation. The hottest period of the year “will come” without water more frequently. Most of those crops dependant on rain will be severely affected. Expected impacts of climate change in Mexico

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Sea level rise scenarios in different coastal areas Tamaulipas

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In average, 4 destructive cyclones hit the Mexican territory every year, producing intense rain, floods and landslides. The lack of land use planning, and environmental degradation add to the magnitude of these events, increasing risks to the population. Heavy rain generates intense streams of water in rivers and mudslides that have destroyed infrastructure, such as houses, hospitals, schools and roads. Hailstorms affect some agricultural land, obstruct sewage systems, and cause damages to structures in urban areas. Droughts cause severe economic losses to stockbreeding and agriculture for periods of months to years. Zones with floods in Mexico Hydro-meteorological phenomena

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Doing nothing? It is no longer an option. Mitigation of GHG emissions – The Kyoto Protocol gives a first step, although it is a very small one Climate change is unavoidable no matter what, so the implementation of some adaptation measures and policies is necessary, after assessing vulnerability Both responses: mitigation of GHG emissions and adaptation, are required Possible responses to climate change

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Scientific research Analysis of national circumstances National greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory GHG emissions, concentrations and impacts modeling, scenarios and projections Vulnerability assessments to climate variability and extreme events Public awareness strategies Design and analysis of policies for GHG mitigation and adaptation to climate change Policy implementation at national, regional and local scales, and at general or sector-specific levels Roadmap for climate change policy in Mexico

Climate change capacity – What we have in Mexico : 

Inter-secretariat Commission for Climate Change. National Development Plan and sector programs. Special Program for Climate Change in almost ready Program devoted to climate change research at INE, which was recently promoted to the level of a “coordination”. Policy and management structures at SEMARNAT and SENER, and small units within other organizations. Capacity has developed at universities, but is still highly concentrated in certain institutions and in specific fields. Capacity at local and state levels is limited, but increasing. Climate change capacity – What we have in Mexico

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OBJECTIVE 11 To promote adaptation measures to face climate change Axis 4. Environmental sustainability Section 4.6 Climate Change OBJECTIVE 10 To reduce GHG emissions National Development Plan 2007 – 2012

Mexico and the UNFCCC : 

Mexico and the UNFCCC Mexico signed the UNFCCC in 1992, and ratified it in 1993. The Convention came into force for Mexico on March 21, 1994. Mexico signed the Kyoto Protocol on June 9, 1998. The Mexican Senate approved the Kyoto Protocol on April 29, 2000. Establishment of the Mexican Committee for GHG mitigation projects. January 23, 2004. Establishment of the Interministerial Commission on Climate Change on April 25, 2005.

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the design and implementation of national policies for preventing and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions adapting to the effects of climate change and, in general promoting the development of climate change action programs and strategies geared to the fulfillment of the commitments made by Mexico within the UNFCCC and other instruments deriving from it, in particular the Kyoto Protocol. Interministerial Commission on Climate Change The Inter Ministerial Climate Change Commission (ICCC) was established for the purpose of coordinating the actions of the agencies and entities of the Mexican Federal Government related to:

National Institute of Ecology (INE) : 

National Institute of Ecology (INE) INE is a decentralized body of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT). INE has under its mission the coordination of research on environmental issues, in order to provide data, ideas, proposals, and technical inputs for decision-making to support the environmental and natural resources management of Mexico. Regarding Climate Change, INE is in charge of: Developing and integrating the National Communications of Mexico to the UNFCCC Up-dating of National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Technical studies on GHG mitigation Vulnerability assessments and adaptation options to climate change. Analysis of mitigation options and policies. State-level climate action plans. Public awareness. Supporting international negotiations.

National Communications to the UNFCCC : 

National Communications to the UNFCCC The Third National Communication was presented in Nairobi in November 2006. It follows the GEF procedures “Guidance on Stocktaking and Stakeholder Consultation” We are currently preparing our 4th National Communication to the UNFCCC, which should be ready by November 2009.

Mexico: Third National Communication to the UNFCCC : 

Mexico: Third National Communication to the UNFCCC Introduction, Executive summary (Spanish and English) National circumstances. National GHG Emission Inventory (1990-2002). Institutional arrangements to implement the Convention. Programmes and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change. Programmes and measures to mitigate climate change. Other relevant information: Research, systematic observation, education and public awareness, capacity building and technology transfer, international cooperation. Constrains and gaps, and related financial, technical and capacity needs. References.

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To strengthen the decentralization of some attributions to analyze, design and implement policies related to climate change. To induce cooperation among institutions at all levels and in all relevant sectors of the public administration, academia, the private sector, and society in general, in order to sustain policies and actions related to climate change. To take advantage of the “local” knowledge of climate change-related issues, and to support capacity building. To improve the public perception about climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at the state and local levels. To serve as a demonstrative project to other states, and even to municipalities. State-level Climate Action Plans

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Revision of the state-of-the art on the knowledge of climate change and climate variability in the State in quest Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (state-level emissions inventory) Climate change scenarios at the state-level Analysis of the state vulnerability to CC (by regions and by sectors) Analysis of the legal and institutional framework, and of socioeconomic factors Design and evaluation of possible climate change mitigation and adaptation measures Integration of the State Climate Action Plan Outreach activities, public presentation, media campaigns What is included in the State Plans

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Increased bilateral cooperation, particularly for CDM and research projects Cooperation and funding for specific projects from international organizations and development agencies, commonly with intervention from Mexican public agencies CONACYT environmental “sector fund”: climate change focus Some industry and private involvement – energy efficiency for instance Strong cooperation with academic institutions Major cooperation initiatives

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Mexico is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and has a relatively small contribution to global GHG emissions. We need to design and implement a national climate change strategy for mitigation and adaptation We need to prioritize policy options, looking for co-benefits It is crucial to develop an analysis of quantitative targets We face the challenge of designing and implementing inter-sectorial policies We understand that sustainable development (and climate change) is a highly complex subject and that efforts are needed on numerous fronts to tackle this issue. The capacity at state and local levels should be improved Research into the effects of climate change and socioeconomic factors is still in its early stages in Mexico Response capacity in Mexico – What we need

Toward the “Special Climate Change Program” : 

Toward the “Special Climate Change Program” HENAC ENACC PECC 2005-2006 2007 2008-2012 November 2006 May 2007 June 2009 Special Climate Change Program

Ideal emission reductions by 2050 at global scale - energy : 

Ideal emission reductions by 2050 at global scale - energy Marginal cost of CO2 in 2050: 205 US$/tCO2 This is the ideal case which assumes a uniform marginal cost of CO2 emission reductions among countries and sectors. However, any realistic institutional measures would be too weak to achieve this target. Tentative results

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Mitigation potential in Mexico

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Example of mitigation potential in Mexico (MEDEC Study) Preliminary results - transportation

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We still need to prioritize CC research needs Several CC research areas are still little explored Promoting technology development and technology transfer Road-mapping mitigation and adaptation strategies Broadening capacity building Improving the transmission of information to society Further incorporating research on climate change and vulnerability into policies and practices Connecting global long-term climate strategies with concrete local near-term benefits. Climate change - Challenges

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THANK YOU Adrián Fernández Ph. D. President of the National Institute of Ecology Periférico Sur 5000, 5to. Piso Col. Insurgentes Cuicuilco Delegación Coyoacán 04530 México, D.F. ?   Web page:

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