Slide 1: Climate change impacts and policy in Mexico Dr. Adrián Fernández Bremauntz
Instituto Nacional Ecología, Mexico
XIV Meeting of the Canada/Mexico/U.S. Trilateral Committee for
Wildlife and Ecosystem Conservation and Management
Miami, Florida USA
May 12, 2009 Carbon dioxide concentrations over time : Carbon dioxide concentrations over time (Source: IPCC AR4, 2007) Surface temperature anomaly : Surface temperature anomaly Source: NASA, J. Hansen Slide 4: Impacts of Climate Change on Multiple Cropping Production Potential of Rain-fed Cereals Max-Planck Institute/ECHAM4 2080s Heterogeneity of climate change impacts Impacts of climate change : Impacts of climate change Source: IPCC AR4, 2007 Disaster costs (billions of US dollars) : Disaster costs (billions of US dollars) Source: IPCC, AR4 WGII, 2007 Global distribution of vulnerability to climate change : Global distribution of vulnerability to climate change Slide 8: Growing desertification in the Central and North portions of Mexico. Reduction of agricultural potential. Difficulties for water supply in several areas.
Flooding in coastal areas.
Increase of extreme hydro-meteorological events.
General effects in forest areas (forest degradation and increase in fires) and hydrological effects.
Loss of biodiversity.
Impacts on human health. Most important effects of climate change in Mexico Slide 9: Scenarios for temperature and precipitation in Mexico It is very likely that temperatures will be between 2 and 4°C warmer in average for 2050-2080 (in respect to 2000), with the greatest increase in the North.
Precipitation during winter will decease by 15% in the central portion of Mexico, and 5% in the Gulf region.
During summer, 5% less rain in the central portion of México.
Rain season will be delayed. Slide 10: Water availability: projections to 2030 Over the next decades an increased stress on water availability is expected, due to the impacts of climate change, and this situation that may worsen due to the pressure already imposed by economic development and population growth.
At the national level, a 10% decrease on water availability is expected by 2030, compared to 2000, according to scenarios
Baja California and Sonora, on the Northwest of Mexico, will be facing a critical situation. The South and Southeast of Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, may face a medium to high stress over water availability. Stress on water as a resource -present day Stress by 2030 Slide 11: Changes on Mexican soil aptitude for rain-dependant maize cultivation under climate change scenario A2 Climate scenarios for 2020 project a moderate reduction on the soil aptitude for rain-dependant maize cultivation.
An additional 4.2% of land will not be adequate for maize cultivation.
The hottest period of the year “will come” without water more frequently. Most of those crops dependant on rain will be severely affected. Expected impacts of climate change in Mexico Slide 12: Sea level rise scenarios in different coastal areas Tamaulipas Slide 13: In average, 4 destructive cyclones hit the Mexican territory every year, producing intense rain, floods and landslides.
The lack of land use planning, and environmental degradation add to the magnitude of these events, increasing risks to the population.
Heavy rain generates intense streams of water in rivers and mudslides that have destroyed infrastructure, such as houses, hospitals, schools and roads.
Hailstorms affect some agricultural land, obstruct sewage systems, and cause damages to structures in urban areas.
Droughts cause severe economic losses to stockbreeding and agriculture for periods of months to years. Zones with floods in Mexico Hydro-meteorological phenomena Slide 14: Doing nothing? It is no longer an option.
Mitigation of GHG emissions – The Kyoto Protocol gives a first step, although it is a very small one
Climate change is unavoidable no matter what, so the implementation of some adaptation measures and policies is necessary, after assessing vulnerability
Both responses: mitigation of GHG emissions and adaptation, are required Possible responses to climate change Slide 15: Scientific research
Analysis of national circumstances
National greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory
GHG emissions, concentrations and impacts modeling, scenarios and projections
Vulnerability assessments to climate variability and extreme events
Public awareness strategies
Design and analysis of policies for GHG mitigation and adaptation to climate change
Policy implementation at national, regional and local scales, and at general or sector-specific levels Roadmap for climate change policy in Mexico Climate change capacity – What we have in Mexico : Inter-secretariat Commission for Climate Change.
National Development Plan and sector programs.
Special Program for Climate Change in almost ready
Program devoted to climate change research at INE, which was recently promoted to the level of a “coordination”.
Policy and management structures at SEMARNAT and SENER, and small units within other organizations.
Capacity has developed at universities, but is still highly concentrated in certain institutions and in specific fields.
Capacity at local and state levels is limited, but increasing. Climate change capacity – What we have in Mexico Slide 17: OBJECTIVE 11
To promote adaptation measures to face climate change Axis 4. Environmental sustainability
Section 4.6 Climate Change OBJECTIVE 10
To reduce GHG emissions http://pnd.presidencia.gob.mx/ National Development Plan 2007 – 2012 Mexico and the UNFCCC : Mexico and the UNFCCC Mexico signed the UNFCCC in 1992, and ratified it in 1993.
The Convention came into force for Mexico on March 21, 1994.
Mexico signed the Kyoto Protocol on June 9, 1998. The Mexican Senate approved the Kyoto Protocol on April 29, 2000.
Establishment of the Mexican Committee for GHG mitigation projects. January 23, 2004.
Establishment of the Interministerial Commission on Climate Change on April 25, 2005. Slide 19: the design and implementation of national policies for preventing and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions
adapting to the effects of climate change and, in general
promoting the development of climate change action programs and strategies geared to the fulfillment of the commitments made by Mexico within the UNFCCC and other instruments deriving from it, in particular the Kyoto Protocol. Interministerial Commission on Climate Change The Inter Ministerial Climate Change Commission (ICCC) was established for the purpose of coordinating the actions of the agencies and entities of the Mexican Federal Government related to: National Institute of Ecology (INE) : National Institute of Ecology (INE) INE is a decentralized body of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT).
INE has under its mission the coordination of research on environmental issues, in order to provide data, ideas, proposals, and technical inputs for decision-making to support the environmental and natural resources management of Mexico. Regarding Climate Change, INE is in charge of:
Developing and integrating the National Communications of Mexico to the UNFCCC
Up-dating of National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Technical studies on GHG mitigation
Vulnerability assessments and adaptation options to climate change.
Analysis of mitigation options and policies.
State-level climate action plans.
Supporting international negotiations. National Communications to the UNFCCC : National Communications to the UNFCCC The Third National Communication was presented in Nairobi in November 2006. It follows the GEF procedures “Guidance on Stocktaking and Stakeholder Consultation” We are currently preparing our 4th National Communication to the UNFCCC, which should be ready by November 2009. Mexico: Third National Communication to the UNFCCC : Mexico: Third National Communication to the UNFCCC Introduction,
Executive summary (Spanish and English)
National GHG Emission Inventory (1990-2002).
Institutional arrangements to implement the Convention.
Programmes and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change.
Programmes and measures to mitigate climate change.
Other relevant information: Research, systematic observation, education and public awareness, capacity building and technology transfer, international cooperation.
Constrains and gaps, and related financial, technical and capacity needs.
References. http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/comnal.html Slide 23: http://pembu.atmosfcu.unam.mx/~climatico/index.html Slide 24: To strengthen the decentralization of some attributions to analyze, design and implement policies related to climate change.
To induce cooperation among institutions at all levels and in all relevant sectors of the public administration, academia, the private sector, and society in general, in order to sustain policies and actions related to climate change.
To take advantage of the “local” knowledge of climate change-related issues, and to support capacity building.
To improve the public perception about climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at the state and local levels.
To serve as a demonstrative project to other states, and even to municipalities. State-level Climate Action Plans Slide 25: Revision of the state-of-the art on the knowledge of climate change and climate variability in the State in quest
Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (state-level emissions inventory)
Climate change scenarios at the state-level
Analysis of the state vulnerability to CC (by regions and by sectors)
Analysis of the legal and institutional framework, and of socioeconomic factors
Design and evaluation of possible climate change mitigation and adaptation measures
Integration of the State Climate Action Plan
Outreach activities, public presentation, media campaigns What is included in the State Plans Slide 26: Increased bilateral cooperation, particularly for CDM and research projects
Cooperation and funding for specific projects from international organizations and development agencies, commonly with intervention from Mexican public agencies
CONACYT environmental “sector fund”: climate change focus
Some industry and private involvement – energy efficiency for instance
Strong cooperation with academic institutions Major cooperation initiatives Slide 27: Mexico is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and has a relatively small contribution to global GHG emissions.
We need to design and implement a national climate change strategy for mitigation and adaptation
We need to prioritize policy options, looking for co-benefits
It is crucial to develop an analysis of quantitative targets
We face the challenge of designing and implementing inter-sectorial policies
We understand that sustainable development (and climate change) is a highly complex subject and that efforts are needed on numerous fronts to tackle this issue.
The capacity at state and local levels should be improved
Research into the effects of climate change and socioeconomic factors is still in its early stages in Mexico Response capacity in Mexico – What we need Toward the “Special Climate Change Program” : Toward the “Special Climate Change Program” HENAC ENACC PECC
2005-2006 2007 2008-2012 November 2006 May 2007 June 2009 Special Climate Change Program Ideal emission reductions by 2050 at global scale - energy : Ideal emission reductions by 2050 at global scale - energy Marginal cost of CO2 in 2050: 205 US$/tCO2 This is the ideal case which assumes a uniform marginal cost of CO2 emission reductions among countries and sectors. However, any realistic institutional measures would be too weak to achieve this target. Tentative results Slide 30: Mitigation potential in Mexico Slide 31: Example of mitigation potential in Mexico (MEDEC Study) Preliminary results - transportation Slide 32: We still need to prioritize CC research needs
Several CC research areas are still little explored
Promoting technology development and technology transfer
Road-mapping mitigation and adaptation strategies
Broadening capacity building
Improving the transmission of information to society
Further incorporating research on climate change and vulnerability into policies and practices
Connecting global long-term climate strategies with concrete local near-term benefits. Climate change - Challenges Slide 33: THANK YOU Adrián Fernández Ph. D.
President of the National Institute of Ecology
Periférico Sur 5000, 5to. Piso
Col. Insurgentes Cuicuilco
04530 México, D.F.