Keeping Middle Grade Students on the Path to High School Graduation: Successive Cohorts Keeping Middle Grade Students on the Path to High School Graduation Recent Research Findings Robert Balfanz NASBE Middle School Study Group Jan. 25, 2008


Research Question: What Role do the Middle Grades Play in Enabling or Preventing High School Graduation : Research Question: What Role do the Middle Grades Play in Enabling or Preventing High School Graduation


Research Finding: The Middle Grades Play Quite a Large Role in Establishing the Odds that a Student will Graduate from High School, Particularly in High Poverty Environments: Research Finding: The Middle Grades Play Quite a Large Role in Establishing the Odds that a Student will Graduate from High School, Particularly in High Poverty Environments


Why the Middle Grades Matter: Why the Middle Grades Matter Students who enter high school more than a grade level behind struggle to succeed in standards-based courses and pass exit exams Half or more of eventual dropouts may fall off the path to graduation in the middle grades Failing to succeed in the middle grades is a major risk factor for involvement with the juvenile justice system and teenage pregnancy which in turn severely limit the chances that student will graduate The middle grades are when students make an independent choice about school engagement and effort


Study 1: What Factors Influence Large Achievement Gains in High Poverty Middle Schools: Study 1: What Factors Influence Large Achievement Gains in High Poverty Middle Schools We found that having a better than average teacher two out of three years, and student attendance, behavior, and effort all had independent effects In 3 representative high poverty middle schools-75% of students who came to school every day, tried hard, had good behavior and better than average teachers two out of three years gained 10 NCE’s in math between 5th and 8th grade


Impact of Attendance: Impact of Attendance


Impact of Behavior: Impact of Behavior


Impact of Effort: Impact of Effort


Large Achievement Gains Cont.: Large Achievement Gains Cont. The postscript is that only 29% of the students in the three schools had strong attendance, good behavior, high effort and better than average teachers two out of three years.


Study 2: How Early in the Middle Grades Can we Identify Students Who Are Falling Off the Path to Graduation?: Study 2: How Early in the Middle Grades Can we Identify Students Who Are Falling Off the Path to Graduation? We wanted to find variables that had both high reliability-at least 75% of the students with the characteristic did not graduate-and high yield-collectively the variables should identify at least 25% of future dropouts


Data and Methods: Data and Methods We followed students enrolled in the 6th grade in Philadelphia in 1996-1997 through 2003-2004 (one year beyond standard time to graduate) We also looked at more recent cohorts of 6th graders (1998-99, 2000-01, 2002-03) to verify our findings We did a preliminary screen of about 20 variables (i.e., test scores, overage, course failures, attendance, behavior marks) to see which, if any, could identify as early as 6th grade students at high risk for falling off the graduation track


Initial Findings-- 4 Powerful 6th Grade Predictors of ‘Falling Off Track’: Initial Findings-- 4 Powerful 6th Grade Predictors of ‘Falling Off Track’ Attending school less than 80% of the time Receiving a poor final behavior mark Failing Math Failing English


Significant Numbers of 6th graders had these Risk Factors : Significant Numbers of 6th graders had these Risk Factors Each year, between 1000 to 2000 6th graders in Philadelphia have each of these risk factors Students typically have one or two risk factors. Only a few have three, virtually none have all four Altogether about 3500 6th graders in 1996/97 had one or more of these risk factors


These 6th Graders Account for Large # of the Districts Non-Graduates: These 6th Graders Account for Large # of the Districts Non-Graduates 6th graders who do not attend regularly, receive poor behavior marks, or fail math or English have no more than a 10-20% chance of graduating on time, and a 25% chance of graduating at all These students account for about 40% of all students who will not graduate on time, if at all


Comparison Group: Comparison Group Sixth graders with 90%+ att., excellent behavior, passed math and English, and scored at or above basic on the 5th grade PSSA math and reading have more than a 3 in 4 chance of making it to the 12th grade on time 69% graduate on time or with one extra year


Follow Up Studies: Follow Up Studies Looked at later cohorts, replicated in two other cities-predictive power of attendance, behavior, and course performance held (ABC’s) Controlling for the ABC’s made being over-age on in special education non-significant, as well as prior achievement Found that key to attendance is being in the bottom of the distribution not an exact level, in one city 80% or below is highly predictive, in another 90% or below Continuous mild misbehavior is as problematic as being suspended 85% of 6th graders who failed English and 75% of those who failed Math also received a poor final behavior mark and/or attended less then 80% of the time


A Closer Look: Why Are Attendance, Behavior and Course Performance So Critical and Why do they Decline in the Middle Grades: A Closer Look: Why Are Attendance, Behavior and Course Performance So Critical and Why do they Decline in the Middle Grades


Poverty Plays a Big Role: Poverty Plays a Big Role


Impact of Poverty on 6th Grade Risk Factors: Impact of Poverty on 6th Grade Risk Factors


In High Poverty Neighborhoods Attendance Declines Significantly in the Middle Grades: In High Poverty Neighborhoods Attendance Declines Significantly in the Middle Grades


Impact of Adolescence and Poverty on Attendance in Baltimore: Impact of Adolescence and Poverty on Attendance in Baltimore


Why Does Attendance Decline and Behavior Worsen and Effort Lessen in the Middle Grades?: Why Does Attendance Decline and Behavior Worsen and Effort Lessen in the Middle Grades?


The Onset of Adolescences Combined with Concentrated, Inter-generational Poverty Creates its own Set of Risk Factors: The Onset of Adolescences Combined with Concentrated, Inter-generational Poverty Creates its own Set of Risk Factors There are the Developmental and Cognitive challenges all middle grade schools face-magnified by the freedoms of urban environments and large numbers of students with below grade level academic skills There are neighborhood challenges-gangs and criminal enterprises need young adolescent males There are the family responsibilities brought on by poverty which increase with adolescences


These Challenges are Met with an Inadequate Educational Response which Makes Matters Worse: These Challenges are Met with an Inadequate Educational Response which Makes Matters Worse There is the intense concentration of large numbers of students with emotional, social, and academic needs in a sub-set of middle grade schools There is an insufficient number of skilled and intransient adults in these schools and neighborhoods committed to middle grade student’s development There are often poor physical facilities


As a result middle grade students in high poverty schools begin to disengage from schooling in large numbers and at a rapidly accelerating rate: As a result middle grade students in high poverty schools begin to disengage from schooling in large numbers and at a rapidly accelerating rate Some stop attending school on a regular basis-flight Some start acting out and being disruptive in class-fight Some just stop trying and start failing their courses-withdram


Absent Sustained Interventions these Behaviors do not Self-Correct Themselves: Absent Sustained Interventions these Behaviors do not Self-Correct Themselves


Study 3: An Unsuccessful Transition to the Middle Grades and Involvement with the Juvenile Justice System and Teenage Pregnancy: Study 3: An Unsuccessful Transition to the Middle Grades and Involvement with the Juvenile Justice System and Teenage Pregnancy


Research Question: Do Students with Off-Track Indicators in the Middle Grades Experience Out of School Consequences: Research Question: Do Students with Off-Track Indicators in the Middle Grades Experience Out of School Consequences


Research Finding: Yes, they represent the majority of males who will receive out of home placements in the Juvenile Justice System and Females who will give birth in High School : Research Finding: Yes, they represent the majority of males who will receive out of home placements in the Juvenile Justice System and Females who will give birth in High School


School Disengagement Proceeds Involvement with the Juvenile Justice System and Teenage Pregnancy: School Disengagement Proceeds Involvement with the Juvenile Justice System and Teenage Pregnancy


What’s the Solution?: What’s the Solution?


Study 4:Comprehensive Whole School Reforms Make A Difference: Study 4:Comprehensive Whole School Reforms Make A Difference Each component impacts a different lever of improvement-a small but significant amount This is why partial implementation or a focus on one aspect always leads to disappointing outcomes


Case Study of Two High Poverty Middle Schools Implementing Comprehensive Whole School Reform: Case Study of Two High Poverty Middle Schools Implementing Comprehensive Whole School Reform Examined impact of the first two TDMS schools on high school graduation Found a significant and substantial impact-equal to impact found for pre-k or reduced class size in elementary schools Supported importance of reducing off-track indicators-they went down in the TDMS schools, achievement went up, graduation rates followed


Slide36: Chart 5 – Progression of Control school students from 6th grade to 12th


Slide37: Chart 4 – Progression of TDMG school students from 6th grade to 12th


Comprehensive Whole School Reform, however, is not Enough to Keep All High Poverty Students on the Graduation Path: Comprehensive Whole School Reform, however, is not Enough to Keep All High Poverty Students on the Graduation Path Although significantly reduced substantial numbers of students still had off-track indicators Overall graduation rate, even though, considerably higher than control schools did not break 50% Students attend a very dysfunctional high school but can’t assume it’s the only reason they did not graduate


What Additional Interventions Does Research Indicate Needs to be Done : What Additional Interventions Does Research Indicate Needs to be Done


Link Early Warning Systems to Tiered Interventions: Link Early Warning Systems to Tiered Interventions Need to be able to respond to the first signs that a student is falling off track Need school-wide, targeted, and intensive responses but need intervention discipline only use intensive response if school-wide and targeted has not worked Great place to use National Service organizations (City Year, Americorps) can provide the person power to provide mentoring, tutoring, home work support, and manage attendance and behavior programs at the needed scale for an affordable price


Use a Public Health Prevention Model for Student Disengagement: Use a Public Health Prevention Model for Student Disengagement


Keeping Middle Grade Students on Track to Graduation: Keeping Middle Grade Students on Track to Graduation


Develop Strong Instructional Programs: Develop Strong Instructional Programs Focus on the quality of student’s coursework-the work they are asked to do- not just the topics that should be covered or the skills taught Back-map middle grades curriculum from meaningful intellectual accomplishments rather than vague notions of college readiness Have state or district wide common final exams in anchor subjects/years-not as promotion gates but quality checks


Have a Plan to Turnaround Low Performing Schools: Have a Plan to Turnaround Low Performing Schools Acknowledge that reform lite does not work Specialized skills are required to turnaround dropout production facilities-the high poverty middle school which feed high schools with low graduation rates-need to develop or recruit sufficiently skilled teams to do the work Provide the freedom and authority necessary to transform these schools in return for high levels of accountability-see forthcoming Mass Insight Report on the Turnaround Challenge Make sure the ratio of skilled adults in the school is equal to the magnitude of the educational challenge they face


Advocate for New Federal Support Dedicated to Improving Low Performing Secondary Schools: Advocate for New Federal Support Dedicated to Improving Low Performing Secondary Schools Success in the Middle Secondary Innovation Fund Graduation Promise Act


Use it to Innovate : Use it to Innovate For example, in High Poverty Neighborhoods Create Grade 6 to 14 Community Schools that open early and close late are filled with service and supports and provide a clear path from early adolescence to the obtainment of an associates or bachelors degree They would rapidly pay for themselves-as juvenile crime and teenage pregnancy have their roots in failed high poverty middle schools


To Learn More: To Learn More Obtain the power point at www.gradgap.org See “What Your Community Can Do to End its Dropout Crisis” at www.csos.jhu.edu E-mail rbalfanz@csos.jhu.edu