EMERGENCE: EMERGENCE Estimation and Mapping of Employment Relocation in a Global Economy in the New Communications Environment


The Consortium - partners: The Consortium - partners IES, Institute for Employment Studies, UK (lead partner) DTI, Danish Technological Institute, Denmark FORBA, Forschungs- und Beratungsstelle Arbeitswelt, Austria HIVA, Hoger Instituut Voor de Arbeid, Belgium ISB, Institute of Sociology, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary IRES, Economic and Social Research Institute, Italy IMIT, The Institute for Management of Innovation and Technology, Sweden NOP Business, UK CPROST, The School of Communications at Simon Fraser University, Canada The Faculty of Business and Public Management at Edith Cowan University, Australia


… and subcontractors: ISERES, Trade Union Institute for Economic and Social Study and Research, France CIREM, Fundacio Centre D’Indiciatives I Requerces Europe a la Mediterranea, Spain FAST, Forschungsgemeinschaft fuer Aussenwirtschaft, Struktur- und Technologiepolitik, Germany Valter Fissamber Associates, Greece Warsaw Institute of Labour and Social Studies, Poland Prague Research Institute for Labour and Social Affairs, Czech Republic plus associates in: USA Japan India Thailand South Africa Jordan and many other countries … and subcontractors


The research problem: The research problem speed of change lack of clear definitions convergence between sectors lack of statistics on trade in services or new occupations or forms of work lack of international comparability lack of clear analytical framework scarcity of up-to-date case study material


EMERGENCE’s deliverables : EMERGENCE’s deliverables Global Statistical Review and Analysis International Employer Survey Discussion paper for Statistics Offices Case Studies Model Conference, seminars, workshops Interactive website Newsletters Report on Implications for SMEs Report on EU Candidate Countries Report on Southern Europe Regional Development Toolkit


… and additional work:: … and additional work: Extension of survey and case studies to Australia Canada NAS states USA and Japan Case studies in developing countries Supplementary surveys of small firms in the knowledge sector (Denmark and Ireland already under way) Global dissemination activities


Global statistical analysis: Global statistical analysis Literature survey Global database - 171 variables; 204 countries Cluster analysis - national level EU occupational and sectoral data analysed at NUTS1 regional level


Global statistical analysis: Global statistical analysis


Where the Butterfly Alights: Where the Butterfly Alights e-leader - 6 large dominant ‘source’ economies e-capable - 23 smaller highly developed ‘source’ economies e-hare - 25 small but rapidly developing countries - potential ‘destinations’ e-tiger - 17 large rapidly developing countries, often existing ‘destinations’ e-maybe - 19 states - with small, highly educated population - ‘source’ or ‘destination’ e-loser - 114 underdeveloped countries at serious risk of exclusion


European establishment survey : European establishment survey


EMERGENCE employer survey1st phase: EMERGENCE employer survey 1st phase 7,500 interviews in the EU + Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic 18 countries; 17 languages computer-aided telephone interviewing sample: employers across the whole economy with >50 employees stratified by size stratified by sector establishment based weighted results


Differing forms of delocalisation: Differing forms of delocalisation partial homework plus hot-desking nomadic working fully home-based working by employees specialist business services suppliers telemediated outsourcing Individualised On employers’ premises in-house (internal) outsourced (external) Remote back offices call centres distributed teams Freelance homework independent nomadic working


conceptual map of the eOrganisation: conceptual map of the eOrganisation


Structure of the questionnaire: Structure of the questionnaire EMERGENCE


Business services covered: Business services covered Software development/IT support Data processing/input/typing Sales (telesales and mobile reps) Customer service/information/advice Accounting/invoicing/debt collection Design/editorial Management/training/HR


Data collected on:: Data collected on: home-based teleworking multi-locational teleworking work on in-house remote sites / call centres (including location and reason for choice) freelances outsourced work (including location and reason for choice) ‘downstream’ ‘upstream’ outsourcing - location of customers


eWork in Europe (demand side) by type of eWork (% of establishments with >50 employees): eWork in Europe (demand side) by type of eWork (% of establishments with >50 employees)


Use of outsourced business services (% of establishments with >50 employees): Use of outsourced business services (% of establishments with >50 employees) Source: EMERGENCE employer survey, 2000


E-work demand by business function (% of establishments with >50 employees): E-work demand by business function (% of establishments with >50 employees) Source: EMERGENCE employer survey, 2000


Use of home-based eEmployees by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees): Use of home-based eEmployees by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees) Source: EMERGENCE employer survey, 2000


Use of multilocational eWorkers by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees): Use of multilocational eWorkers by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees) Source: EMERGENCE employer survey, 2000


Use of ‘eLancers’ by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees): Use of ‘eLancers’ by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees) Source: EMERGENCE employer survey, 2000


Outsourcing outside own country, by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees): Outsourcing outside own country, by country (% of European establishments with >50 employees) Source: EMERGENCE employer survey, 2000


Statistical Indicators of eWork : Statistical Indicators of eWork


Reasons for collecting data on eWork: Reasons for collecting data on eWork Transport policy Environmental policy Planning and land use policy Education and training policy Social inclusion policy Trade and industry policy Development aid policy


Challenges: Challenges Industrial structure What is a sector? Occupational structure Professional qualifications/generic skills Organisational structure Legal or geographical definition? Enterprise vs establishment


Collection instruments: Collection instruments Labour force/other population censuses and surveys Could include household or travel surveys Establishment censuses/surveys (geographically based) Enterprise-based data sets including trade records


Other issues: Other issues International compatibility Compatibility with historical time series Regular updating Speed Potential for disaggregation to regional level


Modelling eWork in the EU: Modelling eWork in the EU


Existing data: Existing data Individualised forms Fully home-based Multilocational eLance Some longitudinal data exist (UK) ‘collective’ forms No existing longitudinal data sets – only very crude proxies for some indicators Main focus therefore on individualised forms


’Individual’ forms - procedure: ’Individual’ forms - procedure Use results of EMERGENCE establishment survey to obtain comparative picture Use Community LFS individual data and enterprise data to estimate national comparisons of establishments/ employees broken down by >50/<50 employees Public/private sector


Procedure (continued): Procedure (continued) Use UK lfs to establish relationship between employer use of ework at establishment level and prevalence of eWork in workforce within these categories Assume that this relationship remains constant within these categories across the EU


Procedure (continued): Procedure (continued) Calculate prevalence of eWork in the EU for: Fully home-based teleworkers Multilocational teleworkers eLancers (taking account of differing size & sector structure) Use UK lfs time series to predict growth rates


‘collective’ forms of eWork: ‘collective’ forms of eWork Use ‘source’ and ‘destination’ information to test hypotheses developed in the global statistical analysis BUT this is very unreliable at present because of small sample sizes


For more information, go to: For more information, go to www.emergence.nu www.analytica.org.uk www.employment-studies.co.uk