BoFConference2005RJG

Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure: 

Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure Robert Glass1, Walt Beyeler1, Kimmo Soramäki2, Morten Bech3 and Jeffrey Arnold3 1Sandia National Laboratories 2European Central Bank 3Federal Reserve Bank of New York

First Stylized Fact: Multi-component Systems often have power-laws & “heavy tails”: 

log(Size) log(Frequency) “Big” events are not rare in many such systems Earthquakes: Guthenburg-Richter Wars, Epidemics, Cities Power Blackouts Telecom outages Extinctions, Forest fires Traffic jams, Stock crashes First Stylized Fact: Multi-component Systems often have power-laws & “heavy tails”

Power Law - Critical behavior – Phase transitions: 

Temperature Correlation Tc External Drive What keeps a non-equilibrium system at a phase boundary? Equilibrium systems: Power Law - Critical behavior – Phase transitions e.g., Magnets & the Curie point

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1987 Bak, Tang, Wiesenfeld’s “Sand-pile” or “Cascade” Model Lattice “Self-Organized Criticality” power-laws fractals in space and time

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Illustrations of natural and constructed network systems from Strogatz [2001]. Food Web New York state’s Power Grid Molecular Interaction Second Stylized Fact: Networks are Ubiquitous

Special properties of the “Scale-free” network: 

tolerant to random failure Properties: vulnerable to informed attack… Hierarchical with “King-pin” nodes Special properties of the “Scale-free” network Power-law degree distribution

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Network Adapt & Rewire PolyNet Built in Repast Our Conceptual Approach: Rules ON Networks for Bottoms up Simulation of Infrastructures

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Stylized Physical Infrastructure Applications: High Voltage Electric Power Grids Payment and Banking Systems Epidemics Self-organized Terrorist/Extremist groups Stylized Social Applications: Social/Report Network Evolution Where we are headed: Combined Physical-Human “Infrastructure” Systems Information Networks Crisis and recovery from WMD & Bio attacks Physical + SCADA + Market + Policy Forcing Development & Applications Abstract Studies

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BTW sand-pile on varied topology Random sinks Sand-pile rules and drive 10,000 nodes

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Cascading Blackouts Sources, sinks, relay stations, 400 nodes DC circuit analogy, load, safety factors Random transactions between sources and sinks

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Cascading Liquidity Loss within Payment Systems banks payments

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Cascading Liquidity in Scale-free Network

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13 Cascading Infectious Diseases Parameters can change when Symptomatic

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14 Without Immunity With Immunity & Mortality Behavioral Changes when Symptomatic Agent differentiation Influenza Epidemic in Structured Village of 10,000: Increasing Realism Structure: Heterogeneous Network + Like with Like

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Flu Epidemic Mitigation: Vaccination Strategies <60% required Network Structure + Physics of Transmission Process Allows Effective Mitigation Design

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General Remarks: Developmental directions Generalization/Abstraction Detailed applications with Domain experts Concepts from Complexity Science are valuable and allow a simulation approach for critical infrastructures that is flexible and has wide ranging applications Focus on POLICY Tools/Insight for Rapid deployment Encapsulation/Integration -NABLE -BOF simulator