Presentation Transcript
The 'China Effect' on South-South Relations : The 'China Effect' on South-South Relations
Dr. Barbara Hogenboom (CEDLA)
&
Dr. Alex E. Fernández Jilberto (UvA)
Changing power relations in the world economy : Changing power relations in the world economy Before 2040 Western economies will be outrun by the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
Since 2003, no rules for the global economy can be set without BRIC consent (WTO summit Cancún)
1. Global neoliberalisation: convergence and divergence : 1. Global neoliberalisation: convergence and divergence
Convergence LA en China: : Convergence LA en China: Deregulation and economic opening
(end of ‘living’ socialism)
Top-down policies, often by authoritarian regimes
Negative social effects: economic concentration, inequality, social discontent
Divergence LA and China: : Divergence LA and China: Origin of reforms: exogenous / endogenous
Small state (privatisation) vs transformed state
Slow vs rapid modernisation; volatile vs steady growth
2. LA and China’s entry into the WTO : 2. LA and China’s entry into the WTO * 1986 (GATT) - 2001 (WTO)
* Bilateral negotiations: Mexico, Brazil, Chili
* Recognition of China as market economy: Western resistance, LA pragmatism
3. Investments: cause of LA-China competition and cooperation Regional Distribution FDI 1990/1997-2004 (billions of dollars) : 3. Investments: cause of LA-China competition and cooperation Regional Distribution FDI 1990/1997-2004 (billions of dollars)
Mexico and Central America: competition : Mexico and Central America: competition NAFTA and CAFTA expectations: modernisation through maquiladorisation for the US market
FDI in export production: assembly of Chinese/Asian parts
China’s WTO membership harms M&CA comparative advantages
South-America: cooperation : South-America: cooperation ALCA??
FDI in export production: commodities (and some processed raw materials)
‘China effect’: rising demand and prices of oil, copper, soya, etc.
WTO membership stimulates C-SA investment in complementary areas.
4. New South-South politics : 4. New South-South politics De-ideologised relations
G-20 and pro-South globalisation
China’s (asymmetric) diplomacy in LA
Composition of China’s export and import, 2004 (%) : Composition of China’s export and import, 2004 (%)
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