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Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript Twelve trends for the future offood production : Twelve trends for the future offood production We have come a long way : We have come a long way And we still have a long way to go : And we still have a long way to go It will require: Ability to adapt Ability to manage Ability to innovate Management of soils and land : Management of soils and land Preservation of fertile land Development of new arable land Managing urbanism and agriculture Prevention of pollution by excessive manure, minerals, heavy metals, chemicals Avoiding soil depletion and erosion Choice of crop rotation and crop combinations Management of water : Management of water Reducing waste Provide just the necessary amount Recycling systems Water treatment Prevention of water pollution Management of rivers Urbanism vs. agriculture Dealing with droughts Irrigation systems and strategies Management of the sea : Management of the sea Like for land development, economic zoning of oceans will develop much further and become a critical management tool Conflicts about ownership Expect major programs to repopulate fish stocks More regulations for fisheries and its sustainability Aquaculture will have to be involved as a sea manager Strategies for food securitywill intensify : Strategies for food securitywill intensify Food and water will become more strategic than oil has been Countries below self-reliance will seek to secure food sources Purchase or lease of land by countries and private companies or investors More mergers in the agri-food sector Further development of trade agreements Geographical alliances Lots of politics Tensions will rise Still many will remain underfed (1 billion people today) Government interventionand regulation will increase : Government interventionand regulation will increase Will happen under pressure of the people Will be aimed at social stability Power struggle between governments, corporations and land owners for the control of food Stricter regulations of commodities futures markets Possible nationalizations More regulations on Pollution standards Sustainability Food safety Traceability and origin of food Use of antibiotics and hormones Use of herbicides, pesticides and chemicals Food prices will increase : Food prices will increase Supply and demand will rule Speculation and greed Competition between People People and farm animals People and fuel Animal protein will become very expensive, especially the species that have a poor feed conversion Stronger polarization of markets (1) : Stronger polarization of markets (1) Strong emergence of two opposite strategies between commodities and specialties Commodities will be mostly a global business Specialties will be mostly a local business Specialty agriculture will grow faster than commodity Local trade will increase faster Result of transportation costs and energy conservation Redevelopment of local economies at communities’ level Urban farming will be big business Consumer looking for “authentic” and “trusted origin” Stronger polarization of markets (2) : Stronger polarization of markets (2) One “mature” food market in Western countries Continuation of today’s trend Consumption per capita will not increase Focus on quality, food safety and dining experience One “emerging” food market in emerging countries Similar to Western countries after WWII Change of diet towards higher value food At first, sourcing of cheap commodity type of foods Will mature later depending on economic welfare Stronger polarization of markets (3) : Stronger polarization of markets (3) Retailers will lead market evolution: More demands on product quality standards Traceability systems will become basic requirement Suppliers will have to demonstrate sustainability Health aspects of food will become increasingly important Lots of money will be made in agriculture and food World food trade will shift (1) : World food trade will shift (1) Shift of consumption centers from Western countries to Asia (> 50% world population) Emerging countries will attract commodities China, India want to feed their huge populations (no social unrest) South East Asia will feed the Chinese giant and itself Arab countries want to have food while saving their water reserves World food trade will shift (2) : World food trade will shift (2) Russia wants to add food to natural resources to keep political leverage Brazil wants to become a superpower thanks to agriculture and energy African countries need development and the money it requires Western countries are aging Innovation and efficiency : Innovation and efficiency Need to feed more people on limited agricultural area requires new techniques Most successful productions will be the most efficient ones Techniques that increase efficiency in: Energy use Fertilization Water use Feed conversion ratio Efficiency is not the same as intensification Research against diseases (plants and animal) will become critical Breeding and genetic engineeringwill join forces (1) : Breeding and genetic engineeringwill join forces (1) Breeding will remain the backbone of genetic selection Genetic engineering will shift from a support activity to other business (for ex. herbicide) to bring solutions for more fundamental problems Breeding and genetic engineeringwill join forces (2) : Breeding and genetic engineeringwill join forces (2) New developments will come in: Disease resistance Animal feed efficiency Water efficiency Fertilizer efficiency Use of air N2 by plants Aquaculture will keepgrowing strongly : Aquaculture will keepgrowing strongly Aquaculture is the fastest growing food source today and will stay that way Wild fish stocks have decreased strongly and demand for fish is high Growth in high population density areas for local communities Needs to learn from land farm animal husbandry Must address pollution issues Must cohabitate with fisheries Must solve disease issues Fast growing species, such as tilapia and pangasius, will do very well Farming of carnivore species, such as salmon, will not grow as much Aquaculture will have to play a pivotal role in the proper management of oceans Production systems will becomemore natural : Production systems will becomemore natural Two main drivers: Consumer markets Governments (as reaction to consumer demand) The “green” movement will gather momentum Retailers will demand proof of sustainability Natural before industrial (as perceived so) Emphasis will shift to quality before quantity, yet provide necessary volumes People will become better informed and will make decisions accordingly Recap : Recap It will be a different world and a different market place There will be increased competition for food Innovation and technology will bring many answers Food will be one of the most strategic economic activities For more on this topic andhow we can help : For more on this topic andhow we can help Website: www.hfgfoodfuturist.com Email: 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