GR2012-01 Global Climate Change - Dr Newman

Climate Change & Health:What You Need to Know : 

Climate Change & Health:What You Need to Know Thomas B. Newman, MD, MPH Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Pediatrics, UCSF Thanks to PSR, the Climate and Health Literacy Consortium, CDC, Ed Maibach, Gina Solomon, Peter Joseph, Peter Bacchetti

What you need to know about global climate change : 

What you need to know about global climate change Its real We’re causing it It’s bad for us We can solve it There are “co-benefits.”

“Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century… The impacts will be felt all around the world – and not just in some distant future but in our lifetimes and those of our children.” --The Lancet, 11/09Source: http://www.thelancet.com/climate-change : 

“Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century… The impacts will be felt all around the world – and not just in some distant future but in our lifetimes and those of our children.” --The Lancet, 11/09Source: http://www.thelancet.com/climate-change 3 USDA, Wikimedia Commons NOAA, Wikimedia Commons Suat Eman, freedigitalphotos.net Jami Dwyer, Wikimedia Commons NOAA, Todd Heitkamp Wikimedia Commons USEPA, Wikimedia Commons National Parks Service, Wikimedia Commons

Recent Warming : 

Recent Warming 4 20th century +1.4F Estimates for 21st century +4 F to +11.5 F. IPCC AR4 = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report

Temperature changes surface, sea and snow cover : 

Source: IPCC, 2007 5 Temperature changes surface, sea and snow cover IPCC-AR4

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The world energy system is increasingly dominated by oil and gas and gas Hydro + means hydro power plus renewables besides biomass 6 Kennedy, Donald and the Editors of Science Magazine, State of the Planet 2008-2009

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Source: IPCC, 2007 7 GWP*=1 GWP=23 GWP=298 *Global Warming Potential

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8 Source: http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html

Not just warming : 

Not just warming Models project more extreme climate events, not just gradual warming Best science summary from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate scientists from around the world 130 countries, 450 lead authors, 2500 expert reviewers Peer review process - high level of transparency and scrutiny Google “IPCC” 9

Climate change models : 

Climate change models

Positive feedback loops : 

Positive feedback loops These are scary and increase uncertainty of projections Warmer temperatures  ice melts  less heat is reflected, more is absorbed  warmer temperatures Warmer temperatures  more water vapor (a greenhouse gas)  warmer temperatures Warmer temperatures  permafrost melts  release of methane  warmer temperatures

Methane release from melting permafrost : 

Methane release from melting permafrost Twice as much carbon in permafrost as in the atmosphere It’s melting http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2009-02/big-thaw-0?page=3 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/science/earth/warming-arctic-permafrost-fuels-climate-change-worries.html?pagewanted=all

Extreme Weather, 2011 : 

Extreme Weather, 2011

More certainty is not required : 

More certainty is not required Given risks and disproportionate effects, even low probability would warrant action Interventions have co-benefits Reduced dependence on foreign oil Reduced air pollution and environmental degradation from extraction and burning of coal and oil Better health from eating less meat and exercising more

Heat Waves : 

2006 California heat wave Daytime temperatures > 100 degrees for 2 weeks Record nighttime highs > 1 million people lost electricity Excess ER visits: 16,000 Excess hospitalizations: 1000 Deaths: 150-450 2003 European heat wave Death toll > 35,000 1995 Chicago heat wave Death toll: 900 16 NASA NASA Heat Waves

Heat increases ozone : 

Heat increases ozone 17

Increase in Wildfires : 

Increase in Wildfires More fires due to higher temperatures, earlier snowment and drought 4x increase in major fires, 6x increase in area burned in Western US, 1987-2005 vs. 1970-86* Increased particulate pollutants and ozone Most vulnerable: elderly, children, people with respiratory illnesses Another positive feedback loop 18 Photos: FEMA, Florida Division of Forestry *Westerling et al. Science 2006; 313:940-943

Zoonotic and Vector-Borne Diseases : 

Zoonotic and Vector-Borne Diseases Increased geographical range and risk of current diseases Re-emergence of formerly prevalent diseases Examples: West Nile Virus, Dengue Fever, Malaria 19 CDC/ Wikimedia Commons USDA

Sea Level Rise : 

Sea Level Rise More coastal flooding during storms Loss of coastal wetland ecosystems Salt water intrusion into fresh water supplies IPCC estimate +7” to +23” by 2100; some estimates much higher 20 Photos: EPA

Increased Precipitation and Flooding : 

Increased Precipitation and Flooding Direct injuries and deaths Long term psychological and physical effects Increased risk of infectious diseases Contaminated water supplies Sacramento river delta vulnerable 21 Orkut images, wikimedia Commons Van Nuys, CA

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta : 

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta 2,600 miles of levees (7x the length of the New Orleans system); Areas >20 feet below sea level; >300,000 people in direct path of a flood; Drinking water for 24 million people. Fixing Califonria;s Delta: See http://www.kcwa.com/kcwa_delta.pdf

We’re all causing climate change. : 

We’re all causing climate change. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the … increase in (human-caused) green-house gas concentrations (in our atmosphere). —IPCC (2007)

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But some more than others... Carbon emissions, 2000 worldmapper.org

Who is affected? : 

Killed by Floods, 1975-2000 Carbon emissions, 2000 Killed by Storms, 1975-2000 Who is affected? www.worldmapper.org

Deaths Attributed to Climate Change: 150,000 per year : 

Deaths Attributed to Climate Change: 150,000 per year 26

What you can do : 

What you can do As a health proffessional, advocate actions that improve health and reduce greenhouse gas emissions (such as eating less meat, walking and biking more, using public transit) Reduce your own carbon footprint Try to improve healthcare value Be a change agent – get politically active! Or at least give money! 27

Estimating your carbon footprint : 

Estimating your carbon footprint Many online calculators Most include household electricity and gas and transportation Best ones include food, show effects of changes you can make, and are state-specific Google “Carbon footprint calculator” (I recommend The Nature Conservancy site.)

Importance of airplane travel : 

Importance of airplane travel 1 East Coast round trip from California = 1-2 tons CO2 Typical California per capita household electricity consumption ~ 3 tons CO2 Reduce travel by Combining trips Skipping trips Videoconferencing, Skype, etc.

Carbon Offsets : 

Carbon Offsets Basic idea: for each ton of CO2 you generate, absorb or prevent a ton from another source Examples Subsidize new renewable energy projects (e.g., wind farms) Methane capture from manure Tree planting (not as good) Many websites now sell carbon offsets

Carbon Offsets Controversies : 

Carbon Offsets Controversies Comparison to indulgences in middle ages Pay money instead of repenting and changing Satirized, e.g. CheatNeutral.com: “What is Cheat Offsetting?When you cheat on your partner you add to the heartbreak, pain and jealousy in the atmosphere. Cheatneutral offsets your cheating by funding someone else to be faithful and NOT cheat. This neutralises the pain and unhappy emotion and leaves you with a clear conscience. “Can I offset all my cheating? First you should look at ways of reducing your cheating. Once you've done this you can use Cheatneutral to offset the remaining, unavoidable cheating.” http://www.cheatneutral.com accessed 6/2/10

Cheat Neutral : 

Cheat Neutral

Carbon Offsets - Controversies : 

Carbon Offsets - Controversies Analogies fail because CO2 is fully interchangeable Emitting 1 ton and preventing another ton is the same as not emitting 1 ton and not preventing the other ton Passes the “What if everybody did it?” test Problem: being sure you are preventing that other ton from being emitted.

Carbon Offsets: Evaluation : 

Carbon Offsets: Evaluation Certification Do independent auditors verify claims? “Gold” standard toughest Additionality Could the project have happened anyway? Economic viability Irony: generating energy from methane capture reduces “additionality” because the project becomes more economically viable

Costs of Carbon Offsets : 

Costs of Carbon Offsets Marked variability in price for a clear conscience: Cost in same range as the value of frequent flier miles All websites accessed 1/12/12, based on 4838 miles

Carbon footprint of your food* : 

Carbon footprint of your food* Livestock contribution to global warming Deforestation N2O: 296 x CO2 Global Warming Potential (GWP) CH4: 23 x CO2(GWP) Increasing steeply “Rearing cattle produces more greenhouse gases than driving cars”* Source: *UN Food and Agriculture Organization, U.N. News Centre. 29 Nov 06

Carbon footprint of your food* : 

Carbon footprint of your food* *Gidon E, Martin PE. Diet, energy and global warming. Earth Interactions 2006; 10:1-17. http://pge.uchicago.edu/workshop/documents/martin1.pdf

Carbon footprint of your food* : 

Carbon footprint of your food* *Gidon E, Martin PE. Diet, energy and global warming. Earth Interactions 2006; 10:1-17. http://pge.uchicago.edu/workshop/documents/martin1.pdf Red meat ~ SUV Poultry, fish, dairy, eggs ~Camry Plants only ~ Prius

Improve Healthcare Value : 

Improve Healthcare Value Healthcare currently 1/6 of US GDP; enormous use of natural as well as financial resources Discretionary funding for ANYTHING (including infrastructure, conservation, renewable energy) severely constrained by healthcare costs Trying to reduce the environmental footprint from healthcare without examining what we do is like trying to reduce our footprint from travel without considering what trips we take.

International Comparison of Spending on Health, 1980–2006 : 

International Comparison of Spending on Health, 1980–2006 Average spending on healthper capita ($US PPP) Total expenditures on healthas percent of GDP Data: OECD Health Data 2008 (June 2008). From Commonwealth fund

We’re #37 : 

We’re #37

A Solar Grand Plan* : 

A Solar Grand Plan* “By 2050 solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions.” “But $420 billion in subsidies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive” This is about 4 months of excess US spending on health care (compared with median of OECD countries)** *Zweibel K et al. Scientific American. January, 2008. **Teslik LH. Healthcare costs and US Competitiveness. Council on Foreign Relations, May, 2007 Tucson Electric Power's 4.6-megawatt plant in Springerville, AZ.

Become a change agent : 

Become a change agent Don’t count on the market Speak up Work together; have fun Be persistent Set an example Get politically active

Market failure : 

Market failure "Climate change is a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen…The problem of climate change involves a fundamental failure of markets: those who damage others by emitting greenhouse gases generally do not pay.” ---Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

Speak Up : 

Speak Up

San Mateo-Hayward Bridge : 

San Mateo-Hayward Bridge

Existing sign outside Foster City Costco, 2001 : 

Existing sign outside Foster City Costco, 2001

E-mail excerpts - #1 : 

E-mail excerpts - #1 Below is the result of your feedback form.  Wednesday, September 5, 2001 at 20:41:08 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- On behalf of the Social Action Committee of the Unitarian Universalists of San Mateo (which thinks globally and acts locally), I'm writing to call attention to a problem that wastes time and energy.   The problem is that it is too easy accidentally to get on Highway 92 Eastbound at Foster City Blvd, and be forced to drive all the way to Hayward…

E-mail excerpts -#7 : 

E-mail excerpts -#7 At 02:32 PM 10/22/2002 -0700, Robert_Haus@dot.ca.gov wrote:Dear Dr. Newman:I forwarded your remarks, once again,  to the person in charge of Signing for San Mateo County…  As we said previously:  Signing is a matter of balance...    Too few signs can lead to confusion, but too many signs can lead to the same result…

E-mail excerpts, #28 : 

E-mail excerpts, #28 December 12, 2004 Greetings, Mr. Haus --        I was over at the Foster City Costco this afternoon, so naturally my thoughts turned to you.  How are you doing?  I hope you have a happy holiday season, and don't forget that the wish of the Unitarian Universalists of San Mateo this year, as in 2001, 2002, and 2003, is that someday every trip to Hayward will be a wanted trip to Hayward.          Will our wish someday come true?  You could make it happen.

Entrance to San Mateo Bridge (before) : 

Entrance to San Mateo Bridge (before)

Entrance to San Mateo Bridge (after) : 

Entrance to San Mateo Bridge (after)

Instead of this : 

Instead of this We get this

Instead of this : 

We get this Instead of this

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Lower CO2 Emissions Increased Physical Activity Less Osteoporosis Fewer Injuries Lower Air Pollution Lower Infrastructure Costs Increased Social Capital Less Depression Increased Happiness

Summary : 

Summary Climate change poses grave threats to health of people and the planet Healthcare contributes because of its own large footprint and its costs You can reduce your own environmental footprint by conserving energy, reducing travel, eating less meat, and offsetting carbon This will not be enough. We all need to become change agents! There are CO-BENEFITS Get involved! Join PSR (www.psr.org) Let me know what you do! newman@epi.ucsf.edu

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References and Resources : 

References and Resources