Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies

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Slides for a talk on "Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies" given at the CILIP West Midlands Annual Members Day event on Learning Technologies and Libraries by Brian Kelly on 10 February 2017. See


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Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies Brian Kelly, UK Web Focus:

1 Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies Brian Kelly, UK Web Focus A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies CILIP West Midlands 2017 Annual Members Day, Birmingham on 10 Feb 2017:

Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies CILIP West Midlands 2017 Annual Members Day, Birmingham on 10 Feb 2017 Brian Kelly Independent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus Ltd. UK Web Focus at UKOLN, 1997-2013 Innovation Advocate at CETIS, 2013-2015 Contact Details Brian Kelly Email: Twitter : @briankelly Blog : Slides and further information available at UK Web Focus Event hashtag: # cilipwmamd View slides & abstract at Tweet comments using #cilipwm17


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Abstract We continue to see developments in online services which provide both opportunities and challenges for librarians. The implications of technical developments on library services is made difficult to predict in light of financial, political and cultural uncertainties . Brian Kelly will describe the methodology used by the NMC (New Media Consortium) for the NMC Horizon Report > 2014 Library Edition , NMC Horizon Report > 2017 Higher Education Edition and the forthcoming NMC Horizon Report > 2017 Library Edition  for identifying technological developments likely to be important. Brian will then introduce a methodology for developing plans for making use of such developments within the institution. Learning Outcomes: Understand limitations of approaches to future-gazing Learn about future-gazing methodology used by NMC Hear about application of methodologies across library sectors Be aware of resources which can be used locally 4


Contents Introduction About me Identifying Developments The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries & the Delphi process: What are the major technology trends ? Beyond the technology trends – the drivers accelerating technology adoption Beyond the technology trends & drivers – the challenges impeding technology adoption Carrying out your own technology predictions Institutional Planning Preparing for the implications Conclusions 5 Introduction

About Me:

About Me Brian Kelly UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013 Innovative Advocate at Cetis from 2013-2015 Now independent consultant Interests in promoting use of innovative technologies and practices in higher education & library sectors In recent years: Gave talks on planning for the future at ILI (Internet Librarian International) & JIBS events Delivered “planning for the future” half-day workshops at international library conferences in South Africa & Bath Invited expert for the NMC Horizon Report, Academic Libraries 2014 Presented paper on “ Reflecting on Yesterday, Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow ” paper at Umbrella 2013 6 Introduction


“Experts” Today’s environment: Experts are being criticised “ Post - truth politics : political culture in which debate is framed largely by appeals to emotion disconnected from the details of policy, and by the repeated assertion of talking points to which factual rebuttals are ignored. ” 7 Critiquing Brexiteers / Trumpeters is easy – but what if there is some validity to argument?! The real reason that we don‘t trust experts anymore , Julie Shaw, The Independent, 8 July 2016 xx The real reason that we don‘t trust experts anymore , Julia Shaw, The Independent, 8 July 2016

Predicting the Future: The Risks:

Predicting the Future: The Risks Risks in attempting to predict the future: We get it wrong – the future didn’t materialise We get it wrong – we were too cautious Futurologists have biases 8 Predictions

Looking at the Futurologists:

Looking at the Futurologists Gartner report 9


Gartner Beware vested interests which may be threatened by implications of predictions 10 Gartner May Be Too Scared To Say It, But the PC Is Dead , Mark Hachman , Readwrite Web, 5 April 2013


We commission reports from experts in the field 11 PDF


We commission reports from experts in the field 12 … is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years. In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.

Invention, Innovation, Improvement:

Invention, Innovation, Improvement From Wikipedia: Invention : the creation of the idea or method itself. Innovation : the use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method. Improvement : doing current activities better. Assertion 1: Our focus is on innovation and improvement Assertion 2: Innovations and improvement will (now) already be known to us (forget the first time you saw the Web!) Assertion 3: You will learn about relevant Innovations and improvements from from peers 13

A Collaborative Approach:

A Collaborative Approach We could use Twitter 14 Tweet your ideas with event hashtag I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future! #cilipwm17 58 Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off from visiting when it’s raining! # cilipwm17 22 and implications for libraries We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to the library # cilipwm17 41 Discuss alternative implications … So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library building? # cilipwm17 48 14 & issues such as legal implications, business models, … What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use? Importing banned book? … # j cilipwm17 #wtf 27 Feel free to add implications for users … Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh insights, … (but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!)

THE Article :

THE Article Article which summarised the “ 6 key trends accelerating technology adoption in higher education in 2015 ” published in Times Higher Education on 23 Feb 2014 Based on the NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Higher Education Edition 15

About the NMC Horizon Library Study:

About the NMC Horizon Library Study 16 NMC Horizon Report, 2014: Library edition: Published in Aug 2014 Based on ideas from panel of experts Ideas refined using Delphi process Report available under Creative Commons licence Your interests: What are the technology trends? What are the implications for me? What is the ‘ Delphi process ’? Can I use it?

NMC Panel:

NMC Panel Panel composed of 47 library and technology experts from 16 countries on five continents (including 3 from UK) 17 Note NMC Horizon Library Report 2017 is still being prepared (due for publication at ACRL 2017 on 23 March 2017)

Short-Term Technology Trends:

Short-Term Technology Trends What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 18 Seven key categories were identified: Technology Trends

Short-Term Technology Trends:

Short-Term Technology Trends Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to adoption) were identified and prioritised: 19 “ electronic publishing is redefining the tools between print and digital, still image and video, passive and interactive ” Report gives examples of innovative uses e.g. ANU Press, established in 2003 to explore & enable new modes of scholarly publishing. “ the way we think about software itself is changing, and whole industries are adjusting to a new world in which sophisticated but simple tools routinely sell for 99 cents or are completely free ” Technology Trends

What’s Missing?:

What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!): What significant learning technology trends do you feel will have an impact in the short term (< 1 year) Tweet (or shout) your ideas! Session chair will record ideas This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of experts 20 Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important: Area 1 Area 2 This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined and prioritised Technology Trends hashtag: #jibs15fut

Medium-Term Drivers:

Medium-Term Drivers What trends driving technology adoption in the medium term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 21 Trends are sorted into three movement-related categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within (2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years. After summarising technologies important in short-term, lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption Technology Drivers

Medium-Term Drivers:

Medium-Term Drivers Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5 years to adoption) were identified and prioritised: 22 “ Once limited to print-based journals and monographic series, scholarly communications now reside in networked environments and can be accessed through an expansive array of publishing platforms ”. “ Academic & research libraries are gradually embracing the movement toward openness as the Internet has opened the floodgates of information and scientific knowledge”. Technology Drivers

What’s Missing?:

What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process: What significant drivers of learning technology adoption do you feel will have an impact in the medium term (3-5 years) Tweet (or shout) your ideas! Session chair will record ideas This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of experts 23 Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important: Area 1 Area 2 This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined based on your experiences Technology Drivers hashtag: # jibs15fut

The Challenges:

The Challenges What challenges impeding technology adoption in academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 24 These were classed as: Solvable Challenges : those that we understand and know how to solve Difficult Challenges : Those that we understand but for which solutions are elusive Wicked Challenges : Those that are complex to even define, much less address The Challenges

The Challenges:

The Challenges Two difficult challenges were identified: 25 “ It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserved alongside the research derived from them for future use and in longitudinal studies, but this presents a perpetual challenge for library acquisition and archiving practices as formats continue to evolve ”. “.. advents in Internet technology are fostering changes in patron behavior , challenging libraries to either participate in the online knowledge exchange or risk becoming obsolete over time. ”. The Challenges

What’s Missing?:

What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process: What: Solvable  Difficult  Wicked challenges are missing? Tweet (or shout) your ideas! Session chair will record ideas 26 Choose one idea per category: Solvable Difficult Wicked This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context The Challenges hashtag: # jibs15fut


Review NMC Horizon report: Provides insights into technological trends, driver & barriers for library Open methodology which caters for experts highlighting their own particular interests But: It may not be applicable to your specific context It doesn’t address “ What do I need to do next? ” 27 Review

The Full NMC Horizon Report:

The Full NMC Horizon Report NMC Horizon report for Libraries 2014: 50 pages 18 topics 6 key trends 6 significant challenges 6 important technologies 28 2 1 3

Tools for Futurists:

Tools for Futurists Some tools which can help you to predict the future: Quick surveys Observing recent developments Trip reports from conferences ( cf Sarah Purcell) Not covered in talk (ideas for reinterpreting the present and providing fresh insights): The History Of The Web Backwards , UK Web Focus blog, 19 Nov 2007 Reversible, Reverse History and Side-by-Side Storytelling , OUseful blog, 22 March 2010 29 Tools

The Future Is Already Here!:

The Future Is Already Here! Hands up if you have: Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed Options: Yes, No or I’m indecisive! 30 “ 20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed ” 2010 Informal survey (Twitter & blog post), March 2012 “ The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed ” What are the implications of this ‘platform’? Tools

Trip Reports:

Trip Reports What topics are covered at conferences What topics interested my peers 31 Tools Our favourite sessions Louise Drumm , from Glasgow Caledonian University, presented ‘Connections between theory and practice: rhizomatic teaching with digital technologies ’ where she discussed the findings of a doctoral research project which asked the question ‘ what role does theory play in university teaching with digital technologies? ’ Andrew Raistrick and Steven Bentley, from the University of Huddersfield, discussed their new approach to staff development courses in ‘ Flipping heck! Be careful what you wish for ‘. Manchester Metropolitan University’s presentation, ‘ An experiment in open-access, micro-learning for educational technology training ’ gave an interesting look at how they are engaging academic colleagues in technology enhanced learning training.

What Did You Notice Recently?:

What Did You Notice Recently? “ What did you notice for the first time today (recently)? ” Can be important for trend spotting May signify that something is becoming mainstream that you hadn’t appreciated before ( WiFi on bus, …) 32 Amazon locker (Feb 2013) Video on underground (Dec 2008) Tools Thanks to Tony Hirst Next steps

Action Brief Statement:

Action Brief Statement Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Next Steps Having identified future developments of relevance to the organisation, you will now need to convince senior management of the potential. From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC Planning template from assignment 2: Action Brief Statement: Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________ which will ________ because _______. 33 Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones This tool was used in a number of Planning for Future workshops (with voting and prizes) Planning


Risks The Need to Explicitly Address Risks From “ Risks and Opportunities Framework for Exploiting the Social Web ” by Kelly & Oppenheim : Summarise risks Summary risks of not adopting technology Summarise strategies for minimising (or accepting) risks Evidence base Document biases and prejudices 34 Can you innovate without taking risks? Planning

Warning From The Past:

Warning From The Past Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web 35 In 1993 Gopher was the safe bet for an important technological innovation

The Serenity Prayer:

The Serenity Prayer The Serenity Prayer 36 Serenity Prayer

Scenario Planning for Addressing the Unexpected:

Scenario Planning for Addressing the Unexpected 37 Commercialisation Devolved ownership The niche librarian Everyone’s an IT expert Possible scenarios for libraries and the Cloud Steady as she goes Outline challenges and opportunities for libraries based on an expanded version of these scenarios) Everyone’s a librarian Planning

Acknowledge & Engage With Challenges:

Acknowledge & Engage With Challenges Need to acknowledge unpleasant truth and engage with realities: Trump  Brexit Post-truth  Privacy Commercialisation (commercial providers of HE) Aging work force  …. 38 Planning Difficult Challenges: Truth, trust, advocacy Existential challenges ‘Librarian’ brand Thinking the Unthinkable When does ‘engage’ mean ‘challenge’ and when ’accept’?

Do it For Yourself:

Do it For Yourself Do it for yourself! Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop available under a Creative Commons licence 39 Workshop held at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences. See: As described Institutional planning Planning

Further Reading:

Further Reading NMC Horizon Reports: Libraries 2017 Wiki (report in March 2017) Higher Education 2017(Preview) Higher Education 2016 Libraries 2015 40 TEF? TEF+Libraries


Conclusions We have: Seen examples of technology trends, drivers & challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel Learnt about the NMC’s Delphi processes Contributed our perspectives Voted on the ideas provided Heard about follow-up approaches Next steps: Read the NMC Horizon Report and use it to inform planning processes Implement an institutional event to help prepare your organisation for the future (run it annually?) Invite an independent consultant to facilitate  41


Questions? 42

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