E1: Scenario Planning

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Slides "E1: Scenario Planning" for a one-day workshop on "Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond" by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst at the ILI 2015 conference. Held on Monday 19 October 2015. For further information see http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future

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Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond E1: Scenario Planning:

Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond E1: Scenario Planning Brian Kelly Independent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus Ltd. Tony Hirst Senior lecturer at The Open University Contact Details Brian Kelly Tony Hirst Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email : tony.hirst@gmail.com Twitter : @briankelly Twitter: @ psychemedia Blog : http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/ Slides and further information available at http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/ UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut

Scenario Planning:

Scenario Planning Scenario planning is: A strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Processes: Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios Step 5 - write the scenarios Step 6 - identify issues arising 2 From http://en.wikipedia.org / wiki/ Scenario_planning

Radical Scenarios:

Radical Scenarios Two day planning meeting for Intute (formerly RDN (Resource Discovery Network) in 2007 External facilitator set group exercise: “ The M artians have landed and taken away Intute’s servers. You decide to launch a rescue mission. What aspects of your service are your top priority? ” Suggestions: The catalogue records The management tools The personalisation features They can have the technology: the most important aspect is o ur community of cataloguers! 3 Note the Martians ( in the form of money men) did arrive and removed the Intute servers, offices and staff!)

Examples of Scenarios:

Examples of Scenarios Context: effect of changes in Europe to library sector 4 Possible Scenarios UK leaves EU Scottish independence Greater power for European Court Withdrawal from European Court - ve : Move towards right; less public funding; more links with US + ve : Rediscovery of British culture Differential charging for students Greater emphasis on privacy Difficulties for US IT companies Development of EU alternatives Data hosting in EU countries Weaker human rights, privacy & data protection legislation Move towards US-model

Need for Scenarios:

Need for Scenarios Context from NMC Horizon report – two difficult challenges: 5

Scenario Design:

Scenario Design In small groups: Choose a context: Competition from alternative sources of discovery Significantly changed roles for librarians Your own choice Provide a set of bullet points: Highlighting possible scenarios (Possible implications of scenarios) (Ways of spotting signals of scenarios becoming true) 6 Group Exercise

Scenarios From ILI 2013 Workshop:

Scenarios From ILI 2013 Workshop Possible scenarios 7 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian

Scenario 1: Commercialisation:

Scenario 1: Commercialisation By 2016: Libraries had responded by financial pressures by making significant use of commercial services Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits 8 Scenario 2: Devolution By 2016: Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, … There was a move towards small-scale services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations

Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian:

Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian By 2016: The majority are now connected using social networks and are comfortable in using the services Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many The role of the dedicated generalist librarian is questioned 9 Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian By 2016: We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts The professional body asked its few remaining members for thoughts on the future of the profession

Conclusions:

Conclusions 10 People typically don’t envisage the demise of their organisation or key services But organisations and services do fold ( Intute , UKOLN, Netskills, AHDS, …) Scenario planning can provide a non-threatening ways of exploring implications

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