Let's Predict the Future: Conclusions (F1)

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Slides for a workshop session on "Let us Predict the Future!" given by Brian Kelly, Cetis, UK at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria on 3 June 2014. See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

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Let’s Predict the Future!:

Let’s Predict the Future! A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY) 1 F 1 : Let’s Predict the Future: Conclusions

Conclusions:

Conclusions To conclude: Technological developments and changes continue User expectation will continue to grow Organisations will need to be able to respond to such change Temptations to assume changes will be managed and beneficial to organisation Need for: Evidence-based mechanisms for detecting changes Open approaches for interpretting trends and planning for implications of developments 2

Methodology:

Methodology Summary of methodology : Monitor signals of developments and trends: Quantative : e.g. numerical analyses Qualitative: e.g. literature surveys Document mechanisms used for observing trends Provide interpretations of trends & implications e.g. see OUseful and UK Web Focus blogs Use systematic processes within organisation / sector: Delphi process Scenario planning 3

Finding Our More (1):

Finding Our More (1) NMC (New Media Consortium): An international community of experts in educational technology Includes: Practitioners who work with new technologies every day Visionaries who are shaping the future of learning at think tanks, labs, research centers Staff and board of directors Produces many useful reports including forthcoming 2014 Horizon Project Summit report on Future of Academic and Research Libraries 4 61993 reads

The 2012 Horizon Project Retreat :

The 2012 Horizon Project Retreat Top 10 trends: The world of work is increasingly global and increasingly collaborative. People expect to work, learn, socialise , and play whenever and wherever they want to. The Internet is becoming a global mobile network — and already is at its edges. The technologies we use are increasingly cloud-based and delivered over utility networks, facilitating the rapid growth of online videos and rich media. Openness — concepts like open content, open data, and open resources, along with notions of transparency and easy access to data and information — is moving from a trend to a value for much of the world. 5 Bed?!

The 2012 Horizon Project Retreat :

The 2012 Horizon Project Retreat Top 10 trends: Legal notions of ownership and privacy lag behind the practices common in society. Real challenges of access, efficiency, and scale are redefining what we mean by quality and success. The Internet is constantly challenging us to rethink learning and education, while refining our notion of literacy. There is a rise in informal learning as individual needs are redefining schools, universities, and training. Business models across the education ecosystem are changing. 6 Leaving the institution

Finding Our More (2):

Finding Our More (2) IFLA Trend Report: “ a selection of resources to help you understand where libraries fit into a changing society Insights Document summarises information contained on the Trend Report website for IFLA members. It identifies five high level trends and considers possible future "collision points" between trends affecting the role and identity of libraries .” 7 See http://trends.ifla.org /

IFLA Trends :

IFLA Trends 8 The IFLA Trends Process

IFLA Trends :

IFLA Trends The IFLA Trends Process: Highlights privacy as one of the top 5 trends 9

IFLA Trends :

IFLA Trends The IFLA Trends Process: Highlights privacy as one of the top 5 trends Also highlights opportunities for ‘ hyper-connected societies ’ 10

Thoughts:

Thoughts Some final thoughts: How do the NMC and IFLA Trends predictions relate to ours? Would you like to use the scenario planning exercise based on the NMC and IFLA Trends predictions in your orgaisation? 11

Next Steps:

Next Steps For you to consider: What action plans do you intend to implement when you return to work? What recommendations do you intend to make to your colleagues? 12

Questions:

Questions Any final questions or comments? 13

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