Let's Predict The Future: The Need and the Risks (B1)

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Slides for a workshop session on "Let us Predict the Future!" given by Brian Kelly, Cetis, UK at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria on 3 June 2014. See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

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Let's Predict the Future!:

Let's Predict the Future! A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis Slides available under a Creative Commons licence ( CC-BY) 1 B1 : Predicting The Future: The Need and the Risks

PowerPoint Presentation:

Optimism 2

Time of Growth :

Time of Growth  1990s & early 2000s saw: Increased funding across education sector Significant developments in IT sector Willingness by senior managers & funding bodies to invest in innovative IT developments (e.g. JISC development programmes) 3 “ Great proposal – we’ll fund it ” Image from Flickr. CC BT-NC-SA licence: http ://www.flickr.com/photos/inlinguamanchester/5036313154/

From the Sea of Tranquility to the Perfect Storm:

Stormy times 4 From the Sea of Tranquility to the Perfect Storm

Time of Growth is Over :

Time of Growth is Over  Late 2000s and beyond: Decreased funding across education & public sector Acknowledgements that innovation can provide growth and cost savings Significant developments continue in IT sector Investment in innovative IT developments need to be based on evidence of benefits & likleyhood of success 5 Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-ND licence: http:// www.flickr.com/photos/drewleavy/339489258// “ You want how much? And no evidence it will work! You’re crazy! ”

The Future: A Quick Summary:

The Future: A Quick Summary What technological developments might have an impact in the future? For the impatient, here’s a summary! 6

The Future: A Quick Summary:

The Future: A Quick Summary In the future: Data will be Big Content and services will be open Services will use open source software We’ll continue to see a growth in importance of online services This will lead to a recognition of the value of libraries and librarians We will travel to work by monorail We will use jetpacks on weekends We will go to lunar base for our summer holidays 7

The Future from the Past:

The Future from the Past The future was exciting in 1956! 8 Monorail, Incorporated built a short test track of their suspended system at Arrowhead Park in Houston, Texas. Each bogie was powered by a 310-horsepower Packard automobile engine. The driver was seated high above the passenger carriage on one of the two bogies. After eight months of testing, the track was dismantled and rebuilt at the Texas State fairgrounds where it ran for many years. Its promoters claimed it could reach speeds of 160 km but no Skyway transit installations were ever built.

“Eagle has Landed”:

“Eagle has Landed” 9 Awoken at 3 am on 16 June 1969 to watch lunar landing on black and white TV. But the future was exciting!

The Future from the Past:

The Future from the Past 1969 was exciting! 10

What I Expected in the Future:

The future is exciting! 11 What I Expected in the Future

The Present: Better than Predicted:

The Present: Better than Predicted Star Trek’s predicted mobile phones 12 Nokia 8110 “ stole the show in 1998 ” but not smart phones!

Has the Future Arrived?:

Has the Future Arrived? Mobile phones 13

The Future from the Past:

The Future from the Past The future is exciting! 14

Shush!:

Shush! 15 Librarians will appropriate technological developments to support their activities! Acknowledgements to Patrick Hochstenbach (@ hochstenbach )

What Can We Conclude?:

What Can We Conclude? Assumptions of: Inevitability of technological developments Economic growth (we can afford them) Political and social environment (no legal or environmental barriers) There is a need to: Be wary of predictions which: Simply justify our organisation’s current approaches (cf. music industry) Reflect personal beliefs Base predictions on evidence Acknowledge that evidence may challenge organisational or personal beliefs / prejudices 16

The Context:

The Context In the future mobiles will be smaller & faster; Data will be Big and content and services will be open. Lots of opportunities for librarians  17

Questions:

Questions Any questions? 18

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