Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; ..

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Slides for a talk on "Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future" to be given by Brian Kelly, Cetis at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa.

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Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future:

1 Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference Brian Kelly, Cetis

Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future:

Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference Talk to be given by Brian Kelly, Cetis at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa on 5 June 2014 Further details and slides: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

About Me:

About Me Brian Kelly: Innovation Advocate at Cetis ( Centre for Educational Technology, Interoperability and Standards ) Based at University of Bolton Was UK Web Focus, UKOLN from 1996-2013 Role as a national advisory post to UK HEIs Long-standing Web evangelist (since 1993) Prolific blogger (~1,300 posts since Nov 2006) Prolific speaker (~425 talks since 1996) Author of peer-reviewed papers on various Web topics Member of NMC Horizon Report Panel of Experts 3 Contact details : Twitter: @briankelly email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Twitter: # saoim14

About This Talk:

About This Talk How should libraries predict and plan for technological developments? When it comes to future planning, how can libraries identify the ‘weak signals’ which may indicate possible significant changes? If we look back to the past to our childhood we may have had over-optimistic views on benefits which technological developments would provide. This talk describes a methodology used by Cetis in their work with Jisc to systematise the prediction of technological developments. 4

In the Future:

In the Future Data will be Big 5 Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA

In the Future:

In the Future Content and services will be open 6 Web is Agreement by Paul Downey. CC BY

In the Future:

In the Future We will own our services and content 7

In the Future:

In the Future We will see a growth in use of online services 8

In the Future:

In the Future We will see a growth in use of online services 9 FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on new opportunities in the FinTech space, April 2014

In the Future:

In the Future We will see a growth in use of online services 10 NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computing Services for Mars Rover Curiosity, August 2012

In the Future:

In the Future We will see the importance of librarians and information professionals acknowledged 11 Causes, ALA

In the Future:

In the Future We will see greater investment in libraries 12 £ 298k investment! ‎ The Library is committed to enhancing its services and facilities to deliver the very best library experience for users. During 2013/14 we are directing £ 298k  to boost access to core materials.  This sum is in addition to the millions spent on library resources across the Colleges. Enhancing Core Library Collections 2013/14, University of Exeter, UK

In the Future:

In the Future We will travel to work by monorail 13

In the Future:

In the Future We will use jetpacks at weekends 14

When Did You Stop Believing?:

When D id You Stop Believing? At what point did you become sceptical? 15 Big data Growth in online Open source Open content Value of librarians Greater investment Monorails Jetpacks

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 1 16 You will be inclined to believe in predictions which reflect personal beliefs and interests or reflects the organisational or sectoral culture

Looking at the Futurologists:

Looking at the Futurologists Gartner report 17

Gartner:

Gartner Beware vested interests which may be threatened by implications of predictions 18 Gartner May Be Too Scared To Say It, But the PC Is Dead , Mark Hachman , Readwrite Web, 5 April 2013

PowerPoint Presentation:

We commission reports from experts in the field 19 PDF

PowerPoint Presentation:

We commission reports from experts in the field 20 … is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years. In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.

Looking at Other Sectors:

Looking at Other Sectors What can we learn from the changes in the music industry? Record labels & music distributors reluctance to respond to: Growth in networked music services Users willing to accept limitations of file formats (MP3) New players (Apple, Amazon, Google) enter the market 21 Were reports commissioned which (mistakenly) provided evidence of importance of high fidelity formats over MP3?

Looking at Other Sectors:

Looking at Other Sectors Are libraries following the path of HMV or Apple/Amazon/ Google? 22

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 2 23 You can’t always trust futurologists! (they may bring their sectoral , organisational or personal prejudices with them) Caveat: Their expertise may also be valuable and correct, but they may miss significant developments

JISC Observatory:

JISC Observatory JISC Observatory: JISC-funded initiative Systematises processes for anticipating and responding to projected future trends & scenarios Provided by JISC Innovation Support Centres at UKOLN and CETIS See <http://blog.observatory.jisc.ac.uk/> 24 But: Work closed due to cessation of JISC core funding Methodology being shared across community

JISC Observatory:

JISC Observatory JISC Observatory processes 25

Accompanying Paper:

Accompanying Paper JISC Observatory work described in paper presented at EMTACL (Emerging Technologies in Academic Libraries) 2012 conference See bit.ly/ emtacl12-kelly 26 Sharing approaches with Norwegian librarians

Accompanying Paper:

Accompanying Paper Follow-up paper presented at CILIP’s Umbrella 2013 conference See http://opus.bath.ac.uk/35978/ 27 Sharing approaches with UK librarians

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 3 28 Information professionals should carry out future planning activities for their own organisation / sector.

Invention, Innovation, Improvement:

Invention, Innovation, Improvement Invention : The creation of the idea or method itself. Innovation : The use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method. Improvement : Doing current activities better. 29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovation Which one is your main area of interest to support your professional activities?

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 4 30 You will need to monitor (a) innovations to support long-term planning and (b) improvements in order to enhance operational practices

Data:

Data “ Manchester City to open the archive on player data and statistics ” Example of: How data can inform practices and decisions Public interest in open data Interest from commercial sector 31

Significant Trends: Social Media:

Significant Trends: Social Media Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers 32

Behind The Data:

Behind The Data Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell group Unis since Jan 2011 show steady increase 33 Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jul 12 But note increase in Jul 2012 due to addition of 4 new universities! But might trends hide a more complex story: Usage & growth dominated by one significant player. More modest usage generally

Lies, Damned Lies and Graphs:

Lies, Damned Lies and Graphs “ # Blekko  traffic goes through the roof – for good reason. Try it out! ” Based on blog post entitled “ Blekko’s Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent ; Here Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why ” (includes dissatisfaction with Google) 34 Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google ? , UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012 Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 5 35 Data can provide insights and indicate trends – but needs to be interpretted carefully

PowerPoint Presentation:

Methodologies - Thinking about the future Delphic Scenario planning Paradata Open speculation 36

JISC Observatory:

JISC Observatory JISC Observatory processes 37

Open Sense-making:

Open Sense-making cc 38

Open Sense-making:

Open Sense-making Importance of open approaches to interpretation of signals: Evidence-gathering methodologies may have flaws Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be made This may lead to wrong decisions being made 39 Open sense-making approaches may be difficult – your marketing department may wish a consistent, positive message to be made.

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 6 40 Once you’ve gathered evidence you should encourage open feedback on: Validity of evidence-gathering methodologies Interpretation of findings Implications

Envisaging Alternative Futures :

Envisaging Alternative Futures There is a need to be willing to: Envisage implications of technological developments 41

Becoming Receptive to Future-Thinking:

Becoming Receptive to Future-Thinking How do we become more receptive to new future scenarios ? What did you notice for the first time recently? What will we see in the future? Typically optimistic or pessimistic views, no new insights) The History of the Web Backwards Forecasting Trends Backwards 42

Reversing the Future!:

Reversing the Future! Romancing Your Soul Absolutely Brilliant ! (1 min 44 secs ) 43

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 7 44 Make use of techniques which may help you to be receptive to alternative future scenarios

Scenario Planning:

Scenario Planning You’ve speculated on alternative futures. You can use them in scenario planning exercises 45 Scenario planning , also called  scenario thinking  or  scenario analysis , is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

Future Scenarios for Social Networks :

Future Scenarios for Social Networks Possible scenarios 46 Steady as she goes Dystopian futures Small is beautiful Who cares? Continued growth in existing services FaceAmazoogle own your content & digital identities Distributed open source services; individuals own content User backlash against social networks & stop using them

Future Scenarios for Social Networks :

Future Scenarios for Social Networks Possible scenarios 47 Steady as she goes Dystopian futures Small is beautiful Who cares? The default scenario How do we detect evidence of this scenario? How do we detect evidence of this scenario? How do we detect evidence of this scenario?

Implications for Future of Libraries:

Implications for Future of Libraries Possible scenarios 48 Everyone’s a librarian Fake certainties Middle classes or deprived? Privatised future We all curate large amount of digital content. Who needs professional librarians? We know we’re right / our boss is convinced he’s right! Is focus on support for online users or those who don’t / can’t use IT? We are encouraging users to use commercial services See http://hyperlinkedlibrarymoocbriankelly.wordpress.com/category/library-of-the-future/

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 8 49 Scenario planning, covering both technological and societal developments, can be useful in planning for future developments

NMC Horizon Reports :

NMC Horizon Reports NMC Horizon Reports: http://www.nmc.org/ 50

NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013:

NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013 NMC Horizon report: Higher Education, 2013 51 PDF

NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014:

NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014 NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014 52

Top Tips for Predicting the Future:

Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 9 53 Read the NMC reports

Warning From The Past:

Warning From The Past Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web 54

Tip no. 10:

Tip no. 10 The Serenity Prayer 55 The Serenity Prayer

Conclusions:

Conclusions Beware of predictions which reflect personal / sectoral beliefs You can’t always trust futurologists ! Carry out your own future planning work Monitor innovations and improvements Data can provide insights & indicate trends 56

Conclusions:

Conclusions Solicit feedback on your evidence Find ways of being receptive to innovation Make use of scenario planning Read the NMC reports Remember the Serenity prayer 57

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