Future Technologies: Scenario planning [E1]

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Future Technologies and Their Applications: 

Future Technologies and Their Applications A one-day workshop at ILI 2013 facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst Twitter hashtag : # ili2013fut Available under a Creative Commons (CC-BY licence ) 1 E1 : Technology Trends: Scenario Planning

Review: 

Review We have : Heard about the approach developed by the JISC Observatory for detecting signals of new technological developments. Heard about the importance of open processes for discussing the implications of the evidence. Used a Delphi process for identifying technological developments which you feel to be important. Presented cases giving reasons why these areas should be investigated further. 2

But What Of Our Organisation?: 

But What Of Our Organisation ? How will our organisations respond to: The technological developments we have identified? Unforeseen technological developments? Political, social, economic and cultural changes? 3

Scenario Planning: 

Scenario Planning Scenario planning is: A strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term plans . An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence . Processes: Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios Step 5 - write the scenarios Step 6 - identify issues arising 4 From http://en.wikipedia.org / wiki/ Scenario_planning

Scenarios: 

Scenarios Possible scenarios 5 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian

Scenario 1: Commercialisation: 

Scenario 1: Commercialisation By 2016: Libraries had responded by financial pressures by making significant use of commercial services Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits 6 In your group: How would your organisation respond to this scenario? What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? What are the pros and cons of this scenario ? Is this scenario one you: Feel is likely? Would welcome?

Scenario 2: Devolution: 

Scenario 2: Devolution By 2016: Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, … There was a move towards small-scale services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations 7 In your group: How would your organisation respond to this scenario? What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: Feel is likely? Would welcome?

Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian: 

Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian By 2016: The majority are now connected using social networks and are comfortable in using the services Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many. The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned 8 In your group: How would your organisation respond to this scenario? What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: Feel is likely? Would welcome?

Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian: 

Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian By 2016: We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts The p rofessional body asked its few remaining members for their thoughts on the future of the profession 9 In your group: How would your organisation respond to this scenario? What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: Feel is likely? Would welcome?

Scenario 5: Your Own Scanario: 

Scenario 5: Your Own Scanario You may choose to : Define a scenario which will mean a changed environment for your organisation by 2016 Provide a brief summary of the scenario and then address the issues below 10 In your group: How would your organisation respond to this scenario? What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: Feel is likely? Would welcome?

Scenarios: 

Scenarios Possible scenarios 11 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian Your own scenarioa

Group Exercise: 

Group Exercise You should now: Address one of these scenarios. Give a report on your discussions. 12

Questions: 

Questions Any questions? 13