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Premium member Presentation Transcript Learning Objectives : Learning Objectives Understand what risk is and the importance of good project risk management Discuss the elements involved in risk management planning List common sources of risks on information technology projects Describe the risk identification process and tools and techniques to help identify project risks Discuss the qualitative risk analysis process and explain how to calculate risk factors, use probability/impact matrixes, the Top Ten Risk Item Tracking technique, and expert judgment to rank risks Learning Objectives : Learning Objectives Explain the quantify risk analysis process and how to use decision trees and simulation to quantitative risks Provide examples of using different risk response planning strategies such as risk avoidance, acceptance, transference, and mitigation Discuss what is involved in risk monitoring and control Describe how software can assist in project risk management Explain the results of good project risk management The Importance of Project Risk Management : The Importance of Project Risk Management Project risk management is the art and science of identifying, assigning, and responding to risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives Risk management is often overlooked on projects, but it can help improve project success by helping select good projects, determining project scope, and developing realistic estimates KPMG study found that 55 percent of runaway projects did no risk management at all Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area : Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area What is Risk? : What is Risk? A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility of loss or injury” Project risk involves understanding potential problems that might occur on the project and how they might impede project success Risk management is like a form of insurance; it is an investment Risk Utility : Risk Utility Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff Utility rises at a decreasing rate for a person who is risk-averse Those who are risk-seeking have a higher tolerance for risk and their satisfaction increases when more payoff is at stake The risk-neutral approach achieves a balance between risk and payoff Risk Utility Function and Risk Preference : Risk Utility Function and Risk Preference What is Project Risk Management? : What is Project Risk Management? The goal of project risk management is to minimize potential risks while maximizing potential opportunities. Major processes include Risk management planning: deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for the project Risk identification: determining which risks are likely to affect a project and documenting their characteristics Qualitative risk analysis: characterizing and analyzing risks and prioritizing their effects on project objectives Quantitative risk analysis: measuring the probability and consequences of risks Risk response planning: taking steps to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to meeting project objectives Risk monitoring and control: monitoring known risks, identifying new risks, reducing risks, and evaluating the effectiveness of risk reduction Risk Management Planning : Risk Management Planning The main output of risk management planning is a risk management plan The project team should review project documents and understand the organization’s and the sponsor’s approach to risk The level of detail will vary with the needs of the project Questions Addressed in a Risk Management Plan : Questions Addressed in a Risk Management Plan Contingency and Fallback Plans, Contingency Reserves : Contingency and Fallback Plans, Contingency Reserves Contingency plans are predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs Fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high impact on meeting project objectives Contingency reserves or allowances are provisions held by the project sponsor that can be used to mitigate cost or schedule risk if changes in scope or quality occur Common Sources of Risk on Information Technology Projects : Common Sources of Risk on Information Technology Projects Several studies show that IT projects share some common sources of risk The Standish Group developed an IT success potential scoring sheet based on potential risks McFarlan developed a risk questionnaire to help assess risk Other broad categories of risk help identify potential risks Information Technology Success Potential Scoring Sheet : Information Technology Success Potential Scoring Sheet McFarlan’s Risk Questionnaire : McFarlan’s Risk Questionnaire Other Categories of Risk : Other Categories of Risk What Went Wrong? : What Went Wrong? Risk Identification : Risk Identification Risk identification is the process of understanding what potential unsatisfactory outcomes are associated with a particular project Several risk identification tools and techniques include Brainstorming The Delphi technique Interviewing SWOT analysis Potential Risk Conditions Associated with Each Knowledge Area : Potential Risk Conditions Associated with Each Knowledge Area Quantitative Risk Analysis : Quantitative Risk Analysis Assess the likelihood and impact of identified risks to determine their magnitude and priority Risk quantification tools and techniques include Probability/Impact matrixes The Top 10 Risk Item Tracking technique Expert judgment SAMPLE PROBABILITY/IMPACT MATRIX : SAMPLE PROBABILITY/IMPACT MATRIX Sample Probability/Impact Matrix for Qualitative Risk Assessment : Sample Probability/Impact Matrix for Qualitative Risk Assessment Chart Showing High-, Medium-, and Low-Risk Technologies : Chart Showing High-, Medium-, and Low-Risk Technologies Top 10 Risk Item Tracking : Top 10 Risk Item Tracking Top 10 Risk Item Tracking is a tool for maintaining an awareness of risk throughout the life of a project Establish a periodic review of the top 10 project risk items List the current ranking, previous ranking, number of times the risk appears on the list over a period of time, and a summary of progress made in resolving the risk item Example of Top 10 Risk Item Tracking : Example of Top 10 Risk Item Tracking Expert Judgment : Expert Judgment Many organizations rely on the intuitive feelings and past experience of experts to help identify potential project risks Experts can categorize risks as high, medium, or low with or without more sophisticated techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis : Quantitative Risk Analysis Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both can be done together or separately Large, complex projects involving leading edge technologies often require extensive quantitative risk analysis Main techniques include decision tree analysis simulation Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV) : Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV) A decision tree is a diagramming method used to help you select the best course of action in situations in which future outcomes are uncertain EMV is a type of decision tree where you calculate the expected monetary value of a decision based on its risk event probability and monetary value Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example : Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example Simulation : Simulation Simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s outcome many times to provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have three estimates (most likely, pessimistic, and optimistic) plus an estimate of the likelihood of the estimate being between the optimistic and most likely values What Went Right? : What Went Right? Risk Response Planning : Risk Response Planning General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks : General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks Risk Monitoring and Control : Risk Monitoring and Control Monitoring risks involves knowing their status Controlling risks involves carrying out the risk management plans as risks occur Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk events that must be done when there are no contingency plans The main outputs of risk monitoring and control are corrective action, project change requests, and updates to other plans Risk Response Control : Risk Response Control Risk response control involves executing the risk management processes and the risk management plan to respond to risk events Risks must be monitored based on defined milestones and decisions made regarding risks and mitigation strategies Sometimes workarounds or unplanned responses to risk events are needed when there are no contingency plans Using Software to Assist in Project Risk Management : Using Software to Assist in Project Risk Management Databases can keep track of risks. Many IT departments have issue tracking databases Spreadsheets can aid in tracking and quantifying risks More sophisticated risk management software, such as Monte Carlo simulation tools, help in analyzing project risks Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule : Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule Sample Monte Carlo Simulations Results for Project Costs : Sample Monte Carlo Simulations Results for Project Costs Results of Good Project Risk Management : Results of Good Project Risk Management Unlike crisis management, good project risk management often goes unnoticed Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless, but a lot of work goes into running a project well Project managers should strive to make their jobs look easy to reflect the results of well-run projects Thank You : Thank You QUESTION ? IF ANY ? You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.