stat .4 time series

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4-1 SLIDES PREPARED By K.BARANIDHARAN.M.com.,M.B.A.,M.Phil.,Ph.D. IDHAYA COLLEGE FOR WOMEN BHARATHIDASAN UNIVERSITY TAMILNAUD STATISTICS for B.com., (TIME SERIES ANALYSIS’04) 12/3/2010 K. BARANIDHARAN

baranibarani50@yahoo.comdharanbarani21@gmail.com : 

baranibarani50@yahoo.comdharanbarani21@gmail.com 12/3/2010 2 K. BARANIDHARAN

Time series analysis : 

Time series analysis LEAST SQUARE 1.Fit a straight line trend to the data through 1994 only. 2.Use your result in (a) to estiamte production in 1996 and compare with the actual production.

4)The following data related to number of passenger car in million sold form 1989 to 1996 : 

4)The following data related to number of passenger car in million sold form 1989 to 1996

Slide 5: 

12/3/2010 K. BARANIDHARAN 5

(a) The equation of the Straight line trend : 

(a) The equation of the Straight line trend Yc = a + bx y=Na+bx xy=ax+bx2 47.8=8a-12b -67.4=-12a+60b Multiplying Eq. (i) by 3 and Eq. )ii) by 2 143.4=24a-36b -134.8=-24a+120b 8.6 = 84b 84b=8.6; b = 8.6 / 84 =.102 Putting the value of (b) in Eq. (i) 47.8=8a-12x.102 8a-1.224 = 47.8 Or 8a=47.8+1.224 8a = 49.024 a = 6.128 Thus, the required equation is Y = 6.128 + .102x

Estimate for 1996 : 

Estimate for 1996 For 1996 x is 2 Y = 6.128 +.102(2) = 6.128 + .204 = 6.332 Thus, the estimate sale for 1996 is 6.332 million cars.

THANK YOU : 

THANK YOU 12/3/2010 K. BARANIDHARAN 8

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