stat .1 time series leastsquare

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4-1 SLIDES PREPARED By K.BARANIDHARAN.M.com.,M.B.A.,M.Phil.,Ph.D. IDHAYA COLLEGE FOR WOMEN BHARATHIDASAN UNIVERSITY TAMILN AUD STATISTICS for B.com., (TIME SERIES ANALYSIS’01) 12/3/2010 K. BARANIDHARAN

baranibarani50@yahoo.comdharanbarani21@gmail.com : 

baranibarani50@yahoo.comdharanbarani21@gmail.com 12/3/2010 2 K. BARANIDHARAN

Introduction : 

Introduction A time series consists of data arranged chronologically “A time series consists of statistical data which are collected, recorded or observed over successive increments”. – Patterson The analysis of time series is important not only to businessmen and economists but also to scientists, social scientists biologists, management consultants etc., because of the following reasons:

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It helps in the analysis of past behaviour of a variable. It helps in forecasting and planning. It helps in evaluation of current achievement. It helps in making comparative studies. It helps in decision-making. MEASUREMENT OF TREND: FOUR METHODS 1.Free-hand or Graphic method 2.Semi-average method 3.Moving Average method 4.Method of Least Squares

Time series analysis : 

Time series analysis LEAST SQUARE

1)Calculate trend value from the following data using the Method of Least Square : 

1)Calculate trend value from the following data using the Method of Least Square

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12/3/2010 K. BARANIDHARAN 7

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Since x = 0, Hence, Yc = a + bx Y1994 = 14+3.14 (-2.5) = 14-7.85 = 6.15 Y1995 = 14+3.14 (-1.5) = 14-4.71 = 9.29 Y1996 = 14+3.14 (-0.5) = 14-1.57 = 12.43 Y1997 = 14+3.14 (0.5) = 14-1.57 = 15.57 Y1998 = 14+3.14 (1.5) = 14-4.71 = 18.71 Y1999 = 14+3.14 (2.5) = 14-7.85 = 21.85

THANK YOU : 

THANK YOU 12/3/2010 K. BARANIDHARAN 9

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