Renewable EnergyWorkshop :Renewable EnergyWorkshop What’s Driving the Shift To Renewable Energy ?


The Global Picture :The Global Picture


Global System “Everything is Connected to Everything Else” :Global System “Everything is Connected to Everything Else” Sustainability Water Population Poverty-Wealth Energy Climate Change Human Health Biodiversity Land - Food Business Globalization Technology


It is a Complex Puzzle :It is a Complex Puzzle Energy (Heat, Light, Travel) Water (Life, Fun, Waste) Land (Food, Factories, Families) Population Increase Demands on Ecosystem Water Pollution/Depletion Energy Depletion & Air Pollution Land Abuse/Fragmentation Biodiversity Shift Overuse & Abuse Law of the Commons False Sense of Security ! Climate Change “A Stressor”


Law of the Commons ? System Stress :Law of the Commons ? System Stress Limited Resources Energy Water Food Habitat Who falls off the Train ? Planetary System Those Who Fail to Seek and Capture Opportunities through Continuous Learning Stress of Over Population


Knowledge Can Change Everything!! :Knowledge Can Change Everything!! The Benefit to Companies and Communities + Being well prepared and positively positioned to change threats to opportunities…. Don’t Blink Opportunity Moves Quickly ! Bio-Trend Systems Inc.


Global Threats :Global Threats Climate Change Population Energy Status


Slide 8:Climate Change


Global Climate Change++++++++++“A Legacy of Progress” :Global Climate Change++++++++++“A Legacy of Progress” “During the past 20,000 years, a 5? to 6?C change in temperature dramatically altered regional distribution of forests, prairies and wetlands…. The past 150 years has witnessed the 1st, and now the 2nd, Industrial Revolution During the next 75 years, or less, we may be facing temperature increases in Ontario that equal or eclipse these levels – our thirst for the fossil fuels and what they provide is contributing significantly to this situation.


CO2 Rise & Temperature - 2000 :CO2 Rise & Temperature - 2000 CO 2 Temperature oC 60 ppm increase In 50 Years 1.8 oF increase globally A Disconcerting Trend ? Rate of CO2 Increase 1950 – 1990 ? 1.0 ppm 1990 – 2000 ? 1.8 ppm 2001 – 2005 ? 3.0 ppm


Climate in Ontario In Just 35 – 55 Years ?! :Climate in Ontario In Just 35 – 55 Years ?! 7.2 – 9.0°F 5.4 – 7.2°F 3.6 – 5.4°F Boreal Great Lakes St. Lawrence Oak-Hickory or Prairie ?


Implications of System Stress :Implications of System Stress Climate-induced changes, particularly over a short time frame, represent a significant stress – one that is likely to be expressed by significant mortality of species incapable of relatively rapid adjustment Stress pre-disposes the terrestrial systems to attack by insects, disease and/or fire.


Stress is Cumulative, and Once Stressed,a System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent Stress :Stress is Cumulative, and Once Stressed,a System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent Stress Drought Insect Attack Fungus Attack Death


Slide 14:Population


Population :Population Additional Tid-Bits Even if birth rate declines the net affect is upward due to: life expectancy ? today’s baby girl “fix your body” technology China + India = 2,500,000,000 Growth = 1.2% / year. So? Global Population doubled in 40 years, will it double again by 2050 ?? ? Impact on Finite Resources “Energy”


Slide 16:Energy


World Oil Production 1930-2050Cheap Oil is Going…Going…. :World Oil Production 1930-2050Cheap Oil is Going…Going…. 10 20 70 60 50 40 30 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Millions of Barrels / Day Mean-Case Scenario U.S. Peaked Rate of decline is based on past post-peak declines Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling, etc. Rate of increase is tied to population and industrialization Kuwait To Peak Global Peak


Total World “Oil” Reserves :Total World “Oil” Reserves Most of the World’s “Oils” are Non-Conventional Oil Sands Bitumen 30% Extra Heavy Oil 25% Heavy Oil 15% Conventional Oil 30%


Slide 19:How Long Will it Really Last ?? Population Since Oil ? 2 to 6 billion “1st Trillion Gone” Population Next 40 Years ? 6 to 9 billion “ Remaining Trillion ???” Plus Industrialization of China, India & Others Peak Time Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling etc.


So, Is The Party Over ? :So, Is The Party Over ? My father rode a camel I drove a car My son fly’s a jet My grandson will ride a camel Ole Saudi Proverb


Energy Choices – North America :Energy Choices – North America Renewal Energy Petroleum 30% 8% Coal 23% Solar 1% Wood 38% Alcohol Fuel 1% Waste 8% Wind 1% Conventional Hydroelectric 46% Geothermal 2% 7% 20% of Canada’s Natural Gas is used to extract tar sands oil !! plus 25% of Alberta’s fresh water supply ! What About The Tar Sands ? Natural Gas 24 % Nuclear Cheap Oil Going Fast


Renewable Energy in Ontario“Growing the Percent of Renewable (& Recyclable) Options” :Renewable Energy in Ontario“Growing the Percent of Renewable (& Recyclable) Options” Geothermal – Heat Tide & Wave Biomass/Biogas - Heat Micro-Hydro Biomass/Biogas - Electric Solar Heat Solar Electric Wind Off-Shore Wind On-Shore Biofuels Geothermal – Electric Energy Required 2005 2020 What’s the Strategy ??


So, are “WE” Ready to Change ? :So, are “WE” Ready to Change ?


Top Oil Consumers“ Where Does Canada Sit” ? :Top Oil Consumers“ Where Does Canada Sit” ? Millions of Barrels per Day Population Million 304 1,370 128 142 82 1,200 32


North American Culture For Energy :North American Culture For Energy Not Conservation Friendly Motivated to Change…??? More Efficient Urban Sprawl Greener Less Dispersed Bio-Trend Systems Inc.


We are Not Afraid of a ChallengeandWe are Creative !!! :We are Not Afraid of a ChallengeandWe are Creative !!! There’s Plenty of Oil ! What Oil Peak ? The North American Compromise Bio-Trend Systems Inc.


Making it Work :Making it Work Expert Team Team Preparedness Team Due Diligence Business Development Business Management Project Financing Markets & Marketing Biomass Procurement Permitting/Regulations Mechanical Engineer Chemical Engineer Biology/Ecology Etc…… Assets & Infrastructure Taxes and Incentives Municipal Zoning Relevant Resources NIMBY Concerns Sector-Specific Attributes Bio-Energy Remediation Liaison Services Etc…….. You are the Local Expert Due Diligence Business Acumen Markets Supply Technology/Product Financing Competitors Credibility & Trust Etc…… Prepare – Position – Promote


A New Day has Come ! :A New Day has Come ! Selected Readings Boom, Bust & Echo. David K Foot Weather Makers. Tim Flannery ZOOM. Iain Carson & V.V. Vaitheeswaran A Thousand Barrels A Second. Peter Tertzakian Why Mexicans Don’t Drink Molson. Andrea Mandel-Cambell 6. Fueling the Future. Heintzman 7. The Long Emergency. James Kunstler 8. Dry Spring. Chris Wood


Parting Messages :Parting Messages Energy demand will trump supply – Prices will rise Environmental consequences of Fossil Fuels are unacceptable Threats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive and help mitigate price increases Learning Teams (Communities of Practice) are Essential for residential/farm cooperatives, companies and communities Conserve 1st - You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck


Parting Messages :Parting Messages Explore cooperative ventures ? Optimize Your Energy Solution Employ Integrated Renewable Energy Systems Focus on Renewables and Recyclables Accommodate and Enable Small Business Development Be progressive, patient, practical and persistent