Market Commentary 14 Feb 2011

Technical Analysis 14 FEB 2011:

Technical Analysis 14 FEB 2011 APF Trading Market commentary

APF Trading:

APF Trading 9 Battery Road 12F Straits Trading Building Singapore 049910 Jay Ng jay.ng@apftrading.com Glenn Ho glenn.ho@apftrading.com Website: www.apftrading.com www.asiapacfinance.com

S&P 500 INDEX:

S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 INDEX:

S&P 500 INDEX Bull trend is intact Index stayed well above the Tenkan Sen and has not touched Kijun Sen since Oct 2010 From Nov 2010 til now, Tenken Sen stayed above Kijun Sen since the last Tenken Sen / Kijun Sen crossover Chikou Span is above index The current Kumo is thin but thickening

S&P 500 INDEX:

S&P 500 INDEX Notice how the Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B ( Kumo ), Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen all show a rough 45 deg upslope Index broke the TD Sequential Risk Level at 1257.9801 5 weeks ago on a qualified basis (represented by a solid line) while TD Setup is in early count Expect a higher chance of a completion of TD Sequential Countdown

S&P 500 INDEX:

S&P 500 INDEX Last week’s TD Setup perfection suggests a 1-4 period of correction High probability of a 1-4 weeks correction which would bring the index level closer to Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen , before continuing the bull trend.

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX:

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX:

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX Dow Jones Index was well supported by a thick Kumo from Jun 2010 to Oct 2010, rallying for another few months now Chikou Span is well above prices, with the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen and index closed above the Tenken Sen for 21 weeks now Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen angles upwards Index is well in a bull trend the index is well in a bull trend.

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX:

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX Thin Kumo ahead Weak region of support With the index far above the Kumo , we are concerned but not placing a high priority to the thin Kumo First line of defence really is still the Tenkan Sen (Magenta Line) and next the Kijun Sen (Yellow Line) Current TD Setup had broken up of the TD Sequential Risk Level at 11550.6396 the index is well in a bull trend.

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX:

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX This happened early in the count of TD Setup. There is a good chance this sell countdown would be completed The recent perfected TD sell setup might push the index into a 1-4 bar correction We expect the index to maintain a bull trend with high probability of a short term correction (1-4 weeks) the index is well in a bull trend.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX:

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX:

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX NASDAQ’s curent bull trend is intact with prices staying well above the Kijun Sen for 20 weeks now Chikou Span is above prices The Tenkan Sen , Kijun Sen as well as the Kumo all angle upwards Bull trend is still in play Watch for a TD Sequential Countdown completion in coming months First line of defence is the support at Tenkan Sen

HANG SENG INDEX:

HANG SENG INDEX

HANG SENG INDEX:

HANG SENG INDEX Hang Seng Index is stuck between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen Otherwise Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen , Chikou Span above index and index is trading above support region of Kumo Note how the Tenken Sen , Kijun Sen and Kumo are in a flat horizontal zone We expect Hang Seng to trade sideways with first line of support at Kijun Sen (22680.4297). The thin Kumo weeks ahead might not be sufficient support should more bearish signs show up

NIKKEI 225:

NIKKEI 225

NIKKEI 225:

NIKKEI 225 Chikou is above prices Following the Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen bullish crossover on weak resistance (thin Kumo ) Dec 2010, prices stayed above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. Prices also stayed above the Kumo While these are bullish signs, we are cautious due to the structure of the Kumo forming The Nikkei has been stuck in a trading range for close to 2 years now Notice how the Kumo twists belly up and belly down while the index just got stuck in the range The Senkou Span B is flat for months The TD Sequential Risk Level (11390.7402) is expected to be the resistance level to watch for We expect more sideway action in coming months for the Nikkei 225

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE:

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE:

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE Shanghai Index is drifting in the cloud with no clear directions at the moment Kumo gets thinner, index action is happening inside the Kumo Wait for clearer gloomy or clear blue skies scenario before getting more excited A week ago, index was stuck inside the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. There was a medium strength bearish crossover but the Chikou Span was above prices. Sideway trading expected to be the path of least resistance. We will get too excited over the Shanghai Index until some further price action takes place.

KOSPI INDEX:

KOSPI INDEX

KOSPI INDEX:

KOSPI INDEX Index closed significantly below Tenkan Sen last week Chikou Span has been above prices for months, Tenkan Sen rising steadily above Kijun Sen. The Kumo is also thickening recently, providing strong support. Do watch the flat Kijun Sen and Senkou Span B. The next line of defence is the Kijun Sen at 1920.13. TD Sequential Completion suggest market exhaustion. Index failed to break above the TD Risk Level on a qualified basis. Overall bull trend intact with a possibility of a pullback.

Astra International :

Astra International

Astra International :

Astra International Astra International completed TD Sequential Sell Countdown in Oct 2010 and prices started coming off, dropping below the Tenkan Sen. Currently, the Tenkan Sen had crossed below the Kijun Sen , producing a weak bearish crossover with the Kumo providing good support. Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are flat currently. This is aligned to the fact that prices would hit into the Kumo in coming weeks, providing good support. Monitor the price development in coming weeks. A bounce off the Kumo resulting in a Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen bullish crossover would be a strong bullish crossover.

GENTING SINGAPORE :

GENTING SINGAPORE

GENTING SINGAPORE :

GENTING SINGAPORE Genting SP has been one of our favourite stock commentary pieces of late We mentioned weeks back how prices are failing to break above the TD Sequential Risk Level in a qualified basis, aligning with the high probability of a convergence of prices to the Kijun Sen. Currently we still maintain that view as prices develop. The rubber band effect would bring prices close to Kijun Sen. The Kumo is looking to provide good support for the stock. Watch for a rebound off the Kijun Sen. If that happens, prices would re test the high and also the TD Risk Level at 2.37

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