Speech - Times of Change

Nanotechnology & Society: Times of Change : 

Nanotechnology & Society: Times of Change Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Sao Paulo, Brazil n October 18, 2004

Graphing History : 

Graphing History Does history (the record of human change) occur in a straight line? Time Change

Graphing History : 

Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. Time Change

Slide 4: 

Spoken Language Written Language Printing Press Steam Power Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. (Prehistory) Time Change

Industrial Revolution : 

Industrial Revolution The last two centuries have seen a series of steps we call the Industrial Revolution(s). Time Change Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages)

Industrial Revolutions : 

Industrial Revolutions First Revolution (1780–1840) Based in United Kingdom Steam Engine Textile Industry Mechanical Engineering

Industrial Revolutions : 

Industrial Revolutions Second Revolution (1840–1900) Based in Europe – England, France, Germany Railways Steel Industry

Industrial Revolutions : 

Industrial Revolutions Third Revolution (1900–1950) Based in United States Electric Engine Heavy Chemicals Automobiles Consumer Durables

Industrial Revolutions : 

Industrial Revolutions Fourth Revolution (1950–Present) Based in Pacific Basin – California, Japan Synthetics Organic Chemicals (Oil) Computers

Graphing History : 

Computers Graphing History Each industrial revolution marked a major change— a big step in social, political, and economic history. Time Change Automobiles Railways Steam Engines

Graphing History : 

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

Graphing History : 

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

Graphing History : 

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

Graphing History : 

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

Slide 15: 

Societal Impacts Time Industrial Revolutions

The Next Industrial Revolution : 

The Next Industrial Revolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ??) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil? Nanotechnology Molecular Manufacturing

Slide 17: 

Societal Impacts Time (Measured in decades) Industrial Revolutions

Slide 18: 

Societal Impacts Time (Measured in YEARS) Molecular Manufacturing Revolution

Slide 19: 

Societal Impacts Time Accelerated Impacts Industrial Revolutions Molecular Manufacturing Revolution

Slide 20: 

Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages)

Slide 21: 

Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Nanotechnology

Slide 22: 

Societal Impacts Time Accelerated Impacts Industrial Revolutions Molecular Manufacturing Revolution

Slide 23: 

Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Nanotechnology

Slide 24: 

Nanotechnology Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages)

Slide 25: 

The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years. Change is Coming

Slide 26: 

The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Jolt to the System Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler

Slide 27: 

The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Jolt to the System Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale.

Nanotechnology is… : 

Nanotechnology is… Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation

Slide 29: 

Inside a Nanofactory

Benefits + Risks : 

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Benefits + Risks : 

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Benefits + Risks : 

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Benefits + Risks : 

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Benefits + Risks : 

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Benefits + Risks : 

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Innovation & Economy : 

Innovation & Economy Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation

Dangers : 

Dangers Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use Constant intrusive surveillance Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles Unstable arms race leading to war Collective environmental damage from unregulated products Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks) Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks) . . . and many more

Rapid Progress : 

Rapid Progress Nucleic acid / protein engineering NASA study on machine self-replication Solution-phase artificial molecular machines Tool fabrication process for diamond mechanosynthesis Russian roadmap Drexler’s roadmap Nanofactory design

The Next Industrial Revolution : 

The Next Industrial Revolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ??) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil? Nanotechnology Molecular Manufacturing

Nanotechnology Leadership : 

Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL NOT require: Heavy industry Scarce natural resources Massive capital

Nanotechnology Leadership : 

Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL require: Highly educated scientists and engineers Long-term (5-15 years) dedicated effort

Nanotechnology Leadership : 

Nanotechnology Leadership What it SHOULD require: Openness Cooperation

What is Needed Now : 

What is Needed Now Awareness of the issues Technical research Policy research

Slide 44: 

CRN Thirty Essential Studies Chris Phoenix, Director of Research Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA

Slide 45: 

www.Wise-Nano.org A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what to do about them.

Slide 46: 

www.CRNano.org

Obrigado muito muito! : 

Obrigado muito muito! Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Email: mtreder@CRNano.org