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Professor Kadambot Siddique Chair in Agriculture and Director Institute of Agriculture The University of Western Australia www.ioa.uwa.edu.au firstname.lastname@example.org Outline of the Presentation : Outline of the Presentation Definition of Adaptation Broad acre agricultural environment Past achievements in productivity Future scenarios and potential New technologies and systems Conclusion Adaptation : Adaptation Successful adaptation enhances a system’s ability to deal with uncertain future change Adaptation is defined as: “adjustments made in response to stress” Adaptation should be based on process to minimise the potential negative impacts of variable climate Slide 4: More food needed to feed the world FAOSTAT data, 2005 People Crop land Slide 5: Availability of arable land Slide 6: Arable Land Availability – 1961 to 2050 Slide 7: Countryman Page 12 Thursday 24th April 2008 Slide 9: China and India: shares of global consumption for the major food commodities, 2006 Slide 10: The Rise in Carbon dioxide Climate Change:Some areas are projected to become drier and hotter : Climate Change:Some areas are projected to become drier and hotter Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 Crops and livestock will face increased heat stress Developing countries in the south are likely to be negatively affected 11% decrease in cultivable rainfed land area projected by 2080 in developing countries The severest impact is expected to be in the Near East, North and Sub- Saharan Africa Effects of global warming: Slide 12: World Soil Loss Slide 13: Total Area 640 thousands km2 Total Population 70 million Soil Erosion in Loess Plateau, China : Soil Erosion in Loess Plateau, China Slide 15: World Water Scarcity: Overexploitation has caused severe water stress in many river basins Mediterranean Australia : Mediterranean Australia Slide 19: Trends in Annual Rainfall Slide 20: Yearly stream flow has declined to Perth dams Australian Agriculture and Climate Change : Australian Agriculture and Climate Change Lower average winter rainfall Increased seasonal variability Increased risk of prolonged drought Higher average temperatures and evaporation rates More intense tropical cyclones Climate Change : What can we do? : Climate Change : What can we do? Mitigation Reduction in GHG emission Adaptation Prepare for Climate Change Slide 23: Australian Grain Industry ABARE, Farm Survey Results, 2006 Agro Ecological Zones-WA : Agro Ecological Zones-WA Slide 25: 40 kg/ha/yr 7 kg/ha/yr 40 kg/ha/yr 7 kg/ha/yr WA Wheat Yield Trends (courtesy Ross Kingwell) Slide 26: Response of Semi-dwarf Wheat Cultivars to Management in WA (Courtesy Wal Anderson) What is the scope for increased yields in the future in WA? : What is the scope for increased yields in the future in WA? State average yield of wheat is about 2 t/ha. The yield of a well-managed crop receiving 250 mm of rain in the growing season would be:- Yield = [250 – 50] x 15, or 3 t/ha. We need to develop and adopt a variety of options and technologies. Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Yields : Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Yields Year temp rain CO2 2050 +2C -15% 525 2100 +4C -30% 700 Ludwig & Asseng 2006 increased variability long term yield decline in low rainfall regions losers and winners (regions) some CO2 compensation Adaptation: Breeding and management to take advantage of positive effects, minimise negative effects Spatial pattern of changes in wheat yield (2030)? : Spatial pattern of changes in wheat yield (2030)? Slide 31: A hierarchy of growth factors, production situations and associated production levels. Yield Analysis : Yield Analysis YIELD = WATER USE x WUE x HI In water-limited environments: Passioura (1971) CROP TRANSPIRATION SOIL EVAPORATION DEEP DRAINAGE, RUNOFF THROUGHFLOW, WEEDS As rainfall is the only water source, need to maximise crop transpiration and minimise other losses Towards a New Yield Potential in Cereals : Towards a New Yield Potential in Cereals Grain Yield (t ha-1) In season rainfall (mm) 8 6 4 2 0 50 200 100 150 250 300 400 350 (courtesy Richard Richards) More Vigorous Early Growth : More Vigorous Early Growth Janz Vig 18 (courtesy Richard Richards) New Water-efficient Wheat Cultivars : New Water-efficient Wheat Cultivars Features Australian Hard quality High Yield High water use efficiency Triple Rust resistance Broad spectrum disease resistance 2002, 2003 Release (AWB Seeds) Drysdale and Rees: Wheat cultivars selected for dry conditions 10% yield increase Drysdale Developed using a new isotope selection method (courtesy Richard Richards) Slide 36: Genetic Resources- key to future world food security Slide 37: Arctic vault holds the food hope of future generations Slide 38: Narrow Genetic Base Slide 39: Heat-tolerant Wheat in Sudan Modern biotechnology – breeding and genes : Gregor Mendel Modern biotechnology – breeding and genes Courtesy; T.J. Higgins Slide 41: Role of Biotechnology Genetically Modified Crops : Genetically Modified Crops GM Crops – Here and Now and Soon : GM Crops – Here and Now and Soon Soybean Maize Cotton Canola Papaya Squash Tomato Sugarbeet Sweet Pepper Eggplant Sugarcane Rice Wheat Courtesy; T.J. Higgins GM technology & productivity : GM technology & productivity Higher yields Nutrient use efficiency (N and P) in crops Better drought tolerance Better tolerance of salinity, heat & frosts Increased resistance to pests & disease Lower use of herbicides and pesticides Better quality, nutritional and health benefits Slide 45: Farming fields on the average (uniformly) is inefficient higher inputs to more responsive areas re-assigning areas to other land-uses Yield mapping, combined with a range of technologies such as remote sensing and crop nutritional status can allow optimisation of inputs for improved yield Farming to land-type, land-use diversification Courtesy; D. Coventry Slide 46: Lack of ground cover in NAR- 2007 Slide 47: No-till legume crop (sown on cereal stubble) with shielded sprayer to control inter-row weeds with a broad-spectrum herbicide Slide 48: Colin Hutchinson, Tammin WA Received only 360 mm of rainfall in 2006, of which 231 mm fell in January and February. Only 129 mm of rainfall for the growing season! Been doing no-till for 12 years and has recently moved to controlled traffic. Converting more moisture to grain! Slide 49: Long term no-till and controlled traffic (2006) Water Use efficiency = Yield / crop water use (Rainfall + stored – evaporation) = 2000 kg/ha / (129mm + 81mm stored) – 80mm evaporation = 15.38 kg/mm/ha Slide 50: Make sure that every drop of rain goes in for potential use by the crop Future Agricultural Landscape : Future Agricultural Landscape Slide 52: Mitigation options of GHG in agriculture Approaches to increase soil carbon such as organic manures, minimal tillage, and residue management should be encouraged. These have synergies with sustainable development. Changing land use by increasing area under horticulture, agro-forestry could also mitigate GHG emissions Improve the efficiency of energy use in agriculture by using better designs of machinery Improved management of rice paddies, both for water and fertilizer use efficiency could reduce emissions of GHGs Use of nitrification inhibitors and fertiliser placement practices need further consideration for GHG mitigation Improve management of livestock population, and its diet could also assist in mitigation of GHGs Slide 53: Biological Modification Environmental Management IncreasecropWUE Improve field water use ratio Improved agronomy – TOS seeding rate, fertilizer, pest, weed and disease management Zero-Till, control soil and water loss, increased soil moisture storage Use mulch/ground, cover to minimise soil evaporation, tactical fallow and opportunity cropping Improve root growth to use deeper soil water Collect run off water for supplemental irrigation Raise photosynthetic and transpiration rates Improved heat and drought tolerance High WUE genotypes Nutrient use efficiency High harvest index Raised rainfall use efficiency Realise more $$$ per drop of water Adapting Crops and Management Systems for Climate Change/Variability Uncertainty Cascade : Uncertainty Cascade Conclusions : Conclusions High resolution climate change scenarios tailored for local condition is urgently required Past adaptation and the increase in Rainfall Use Efficiency has come about from both agronomic and genetic improvements The water limited upper productivity of well managed disease free cereal crops is 20kg/ha/mm There is scope for targeted breeding of crops and pastures to changing climate by using novel germplams and breeding tools New farming systems based on combination of annuals and perennials will emerge Crop-systems simulation models will play an important role in complementing field based research The End : The End Seeing nothing; hearing nothing; & doing nothing is no longer an option The International Steering Committee cordially invites you to participate in the:Joint 5th International Food Legume Research Conference (IFLRC-V) & 7th European Conference on Grain Legumes (AEP-VII)“Legumes for Global Health”Legume crops and products for food, feed and environmental benefits26th to 30th April 2010 http://www.iflrc-ecgl.org : The International Steering Committee cordially invites you to participate in the:Joint 5th International Food Legume Research Conference (IFLRC-V) & 7th European Conference on Grain Legumes (AEP-VII)“Legumes for Global Health”Legume crops and products for food, feed and environmental benefits26th to 30th April 2010 http://www.iflrc-ecgl.org You do not have the permission to view this presentation. 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