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LONG RANGE PLANNINGMaintaining Excellence During a Period of Exceptional GrowthSeptember 2002: 

LONG RANGE PLANNING Maintaining Excellence During a Period of Exceptional Growth September 2002

University of California: 

University of California Educates 187,000 students Touches the lives of every California family An economic engine for jobs, local dollars and tax revenues

Today’s Agenda: 

Today’s Agenda Overview Enrollment plans Faculty recruitment and retention Resources Housing task force report Summary and future topics

Universities Are More Important than Ever: 

Universities Are More Important than Ever University research advances California’s economy and quality of life UC’s contributions are even more vital as the world shifts to more of a knowledge-based economy UC is an economic engine driving regional industry clusters

Education Pays: 

Education Pays

Education Pays: 

Education Pays

Education Is the Pathway to Upward Social Mobility: 

Education Is the Pathway to Upward Social Mobility

Population Growth 1995 to 2025 (millions): 

Population Growth 1995 to 2025 (millions) Millions

Fastest Growing States 1995-2025: 

Fastest Growing States 1995-2025 Percent Change

Increase in Immigrants 1995 to 2025 (millions): 

Increase in Immigrants 1995 to 2025 (millions) Millions

PopulationAge 65 and Over: 

Population Age 65 and Over 1995 2025 Florida 19% 26% California 11% 13% Alaska 5% 10% (Highest) (Lowest)

Population under 20 Years of Age: 

Population under 20 Years of Age 1995 2025 Alaska 31% 34% California 28% 33% Florida 24% 21% (Highest) (Lowest)

Population under 14 Years of Age: 

Population under 14 Years of Age 1985 2020 United States 20% 18.6% Western Europe 20% 13.7%

Median Age: 

Median Age 2000 2050 United States 35.5 36.2 Western Europe 37.7 52.7

California’sPopulation in 1980: 

California’s Population in 1980 Demographic Shift 1980 to 2040 67% 19% 5% 8%

California’sPopulation in 2000: 

California’s Population in 2000 Demographic Shift 1980 to 2040 50% 31% 12% 7%

California’sPopulation in 2020: 

California’s Population in 2020 Demographic Shift 1980 to 2040 40% 39% 14% 6%

California’sPopulation in 2040: 

California’s Population in 2040 Demographic Shift 1980 to 2040 31% 48% 15% 6%

Hispanics & Asians Increase as % of Population: 

Hispanics & Asians Increase as % of Population 67% 31% 48% 19% 5% 15% 8% 6% Demographic Shift 1980 to 2040

Policy Leaders Want to Reduce Income Disparity: 

Policy Leaders Want to Reduce Income Disparity 67% 31% 48% 19% 5% 15% Demographic Shift 1980 to 2040 8% 6%

1998 Forecast of“Tidal Wave II”: 

1998 Forecast of “Tidal Wave II”

The Latest ForecastIs Even Higher: 

The Latest Forecast Is Even Higher

Maintaining Excellence: 

Maintaining Excellence

Maintaining Excellence Benchmarks of Quality: 

Maintaining Excellence Benchmarks of Quality Enabling Factors Quality Excellent Research Slow Moving Indicators

Maintaining Excellence Early Warning Indicators: 

Maintaining Excellence Early Warning Indicators Enabling Factors Quality Early Warning Indicators Excellent Research Slow Moving Indicators

Are We on Track?: 

Are We on Track? Slow Moving Indicators Graduation rates for undergraduates Research funding Rankings of departments and programs Early Warning Indicators Undergraduate enrollment Graduate enrollment Faculty hiring Staff salaries Academic support Financial aid Graduate student support Facilities

Are We on Track?: 

Are We on Track? Slow Moving Indicators Graduation rates for undergraduates Research funding Rankings of departments and programs

UC Has High Persistence and Graduation Rates: 

UC Has High Persistence and Graduation Rates

Increase in Competitive Awards to UC Faculty: 

Increase in Competitive Awards to UC Faculty

California Tops Federal Research Funding, FY 99: 

California Tops Federal Research Funding, FY 99 Funding State Receiving Percentage Agency Most Funding Received Defense California 26% Health and Human Services California 11% NASA California 30% National Science California 15% Foundation

Fastest Growth is in Research Support from Industry: 

Fastest Growth is in Research Support from Industry

Many Indicators of Strong Graduate Programs: 

Many Indicators of Strong Graduate Programs Of the 261 doctoral-granting universities in the U.S., only 61 are members of the prestigious American Association of Universities (AAU). 6 of the 8 UC campuses eligible for the AAU are members. In spite of being small and young, UCR and UCSC are in top 15 on Graham/Diamond ratings. Of the top 12 universities on the NRC rankings, 3 are UC campuses. Of the 229 rated UC programs, more than half were in the top 20.

Californians Take Pride in UC Quality: 

Californians Take Pride in UC Quality The University of California The Best Public University System in the World

Today’s Agenda: 

Today’s Agenda Overview Enrollment plans Faculty recruitment and retention Resources Housing task force report Summary and future topics

Creating Opportunities for More High School Graduates: 

Creating Opportunities for More High School Graduates 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Actual Projected Graduate Students Undergraduate Students General Campus FTE Students Including Summer Can We Maintain Quality during this Period of Exceptional Growth?

Are We on Track?: 

Are We on Track? Slow Moving Indicators Graduation rates for undergraduates Research funding Rankings of departments and programs Early Warning Indicators Undergraduate enrollment Graduate enrollment Faculty hiring Staff salaries Academic support Financial aid Graduate student support Facilities

1999 Plan Forecast Many More Undergraduates: 

1999 Plan Forecast Many More Undergraduates

Last Year’s Revision Assumed a Return to the Plan, But …: 

Last Year’s Revision Assumed a Return to the Plan, But …

Community College Transfers are on Plan: 

Community College Transfers are on Plan

UC is Accessible to Low-Income Families: 

UC is Accessible to Low-Income Families

Graduate Enrollment is on Plan: 

Graduate Enrollment is on Plan

Today’s Agenda: 

Today’s Agenda Overview Enrollment plans Faculty recruitment and retention Resources Housing task force report Summary and future topics

Faculty Recruitment and Retention: 

Faculty Recruitment and Retention Faculty Quality Measures for Current Faculty How We Achieve It and What It Costs How We Nurture Continual Faculty Achievement Needs for Faculty Hiring Over the Next Decade Numbers and Causes Concerns Flexibility Opportunities

Academic Achievement and Scholarly Recognition: 

Academic Achievement and Scholarly Recognition Nobel Prize 26 Fields Medal 3 National Medal of Science 39 MacArthur Fellowships 37 National Academy of Sciences 350 National Academy of Engineering 150 Institute of Medicine 117 Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigators 48

Graham & Diamond: 

Graham & Diamond “No aspect of our revised class of Research 1 universities is more arresting than the inclusion of all eight general campuses of the University of California…  The speed with which [UC’s newer campuses at Santa Barbara, Riverside, and Santa Cruz] rose from modest beginnings is astonishing.”

What Outstanding Faculty Want: 

What Outstanding Faculty Want Outstanding colleagues Outstanding students Outstanding support Salary Services Finances Perception that the state and public value UC and treat UC well Intellectual stimulation and opportunities on campus and in surrounding area Good location/Quality of life

Faculty Salaries Are FallingBelow Market Again: 

Faculty Salaries Are Falling Below Market Again 2002-03 2002-03 Privates UC Publics With No UC COLA

Reasons First-offer Candidates Declined Appointments: 

Reasons First-offer Candidates Declined Appointments Better salary offer elsewhere Spousal employment Family/geographic considerations Housing problems

Reasons Cited by Faculty who Resigned 2000-01: 

Reasons Cited by Faculty who Resigned 2000-01 Low salary Family/geographic considerations Housing problems Spousal employment problems Lack of research money

Promotion Review Process: 

Promotion Review Process PREPARES FILE SOLICITS LETTERS SOLICITS LETTERS COMMITTEE ON ACADEMIC PERSONNEL (CAP) REVIEWS AD HOC COMMITTEE REVIEWS AD HOC COMMITTEE REVIEWS EVC / PROVOST REVIEWS FILE CHANCELLOR MAKES FINAL DECISION

Faculty Promotions: 

Faculty Promotions Campuswide process: input from department, academic senate and administration Individuals are reviewed throughout their professional careers World’s top people in fields are asked to evaluate Advancement is not automatic or merely a function of years-of-service

Tenure Rates: 

Tenure Rates About 78% of UC’s non-tenured faculty hires eventually achieve tenure Over the last 10 years, nearly 90% of faculty who formally came up for tenure review were granted tenure Of those who left prior to tenure review, 76% secured positions at other universities (71% tenure track positions)

Budgeted Student EnrollmentsGeneral Campus: 

Budgeted Student Enrollments General Campus 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Actual Projected Graduate Students Undergraduate Students

Tenure Track Faculty Positions: 

Tenure Track Faculty Positions 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Actual Projected

Tenure Track Faculty General Campus & Health Science Age Distributions1990, 1995, and 2001: 

Tenure Track Faculty General Campus & Health Science Age Distributions 1990, 1995, and 2001 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66+ 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 Number of Faculty 1995 1990 2001

Tenure Track Faculty New Appointments Actual & Projected: 

Tenure Track Faculty New Appointments Actual & Projected 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 General Campus Recruitment Actual Projected Hires Per Year

Concerns: 

Concerns Number of searches Start-up costs Space Faculty salaries

Flexibility: 

Flexibility Balance between temporary and permanent faculty Balance between new hires at junior and senior levels

Opportunity: 

Opportunity Creating the faculty for the next several decades Disciplinary balance Coverage of growing fields Diversity

Summary: 

Summary UC has a faculty of very high quality and knows how to foster quality   Fostering quality requires resources An unusually large wave of faculty hiring in this coming decade will set in place the faculty of the next several decades   Concerns, flexibility, and opportunities

Today’s Agenda: 

Today’s Agenda Overview Enrollment plans Faculty recruitment and retention Resources Housing task force report Summary and future topics

State Funding Cycles: 

State Funding Cycles

Student Fee Revenues Increased During the Early 1990s: 

Student Fee Revenues Increased During the Early 1990s

Private Fund-Raising Has Been a Terrific Success: 

Private Fund-Raising Has Been a Terrific Success

So Has the Growth in Federal Research Support: 

So Has the Growth in Federal Research Support

The Growth Plan and the Partnership Agreement: 

The Growth Plan and the Partnership Agreement Enrollment on plan State support - Partnership Cost increases to the base budget – 4% Catch-up funding in core areas – 1% Fund enrollment growth New academic facilities Federal – maintain $ per faculty Private – continue growth in private fund-raising Overenrolled State support - Partnership $237 million underfunded $29 million one-time cut to core areas Funded enrollment growth Larger GO bond + ISIs Federal – end of NIH increases? Double NSF? Impact of Federal deficits? Private – exceptional growth until this recession, then holding steady Assumptions Actual

However, California is Facing a Fiscal Crisis: 

However, California is Facing a Fiscal Crisis Capital gains and stock options bubble

Sharp Growth in Capital Gains & Stock Options Revenue: 

Sharp Growth in Capital Gains & Stock Options Revenue

California’s Bubble: 

California’s Bubble

The Fiscal Crisis: 

The Fiscal Crisis Capital gains and stock options bubble Concern about economic slowdown, layoffs, lower tax receipts September 11, 2001

Short-Term vs. Long-Term: 

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Cycles: California had financial problems in early 1980s and 1990s

Costs to Universities Have Risen Steadily: 

Costs to Universities Have Risen Steadily

UC Spending Lagged, Then Caught Up: 

UC Spending Lagged, Then Caught Up

Short-Term vs. Long-Term: 

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Cycles: California had financial problems in early 1980s and 1990s Better funding when economy improves Fundamentals of California’s economy are strong; funding should improve again

Short-Term vs. Long-Term: 

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Cycles: California had financial problems in early 1980s and 1990s Better funding when economy improves Fundamentals of California’s economy are strong; funding should improve again Lags: Faculty hiring and new buildings lag behind student increases and then we catch up at enrollment plateau

Faculty Salaries Are Falling Below Market Again: 

Faculty Salaries Are Falling Below Market Again

State Funding forUC Staff Salary Increases: 

State Funding for UC Staff Salary Increases

Funding for Staff Salaries is Falling Below Market: 

Funding for Staff Salaries is Falling Below Market

But, UC Has Less Staff Turnover Than Other Large Employers: 

But, UC Has Less Staff Turnover Than Other Large Employers

Are We on Track?: 

Are We on Track? Slow Moving Indicators Graduation rates for undergraduates Research funding Rankings of departments and programs Early Warning Indicators Undergraduate enrollment Graduate enrollment Faculty hiring Staff salaries Academic support Financial aid Graduate student support Facilities

Yale and Michigan Have Excellent Libraries: 

Yale and Michigan Have Excellent Libraries

Budget Cuts Have Eroded Traditional Library Measures: 

Budget Cuts Have Eroded Traditional Library Measures

But, Interlibrary Loans Have Doubled: 

But, Interlibrary Loans Have Doubled

And, More Materials Are Being Shipped Electronically: 

And, More Materials Are Being Shipped Electronically

Student Fees Increased Sharply in Early 1990s, But …: 

Student Fees Increased Sharply in Early 1990s, But …

Financial Aid Offset Impact on Low-Income Families : 

Financial Aid Offset Impact on Low-Income Families

Student Loan/WorkHas Decreased: 

Student Loan/Work Has Decreased

Higher Doctoral Student Support Targets: 

Higher Doctoral Student Support Targets

Need Larger Fellowships and More $ for Enrollment Growth: 

Need Larger Fellowships and More $ for Enrollment Growth

Are We on Track?: 

Are We on Track? Slow Moving Indicators Graduation rates for undergraduates Research funding Rankings of departments and programs Early Warning Indicators Undergraduate enrollment Graduate enrollment Faculty hiring Staff salaries Academic support Financial aid Graduate student support Facilities

With Future Bond Measures UC Could Increase Space Capacity: 

With Future Bond Measures UC Could Increase Space Capacity

Space Drops to 78% of Standard If Future Bond Measures Fail: 

Space Drops to 78% of Standard If Future Bond Measures Fail

Are We on Track?: 

Are We on Track? Slow Moving Indicators Graduation rates for undergraduates Research funding Rankings of departments and programs Early Warning Indicators Undergraduate enrollment Graduate enrollment Faculty hiring Staff salaries Academic support Financial aid Graduate student support Facilities

Today’s Agenda: 

Today’s Agenda Overview Enrollment plans Faculty recruitment and retention Resources Housing task force report Summary and future topics

UC Housing Task Force : 

UC Housing Task Force Task Force charge Review current housing resources and programs; Assess housing needs; Examine the adequacy of current housing programs; Identify resources and programs to provide additional housing for students, faculty, and staff. Membership of the Task Force

The Challenge: 

The Challenge High cost of housing in California Local housing needs in UC communities Needs associated with UC growth plan

Slide97: 

Campuses Vary in Size and % Currently in Student Housing 20% 23% 30% 27% 24% 35% 14% 20% 42% Fall Headcount Enrollment/ Students Housed UC Average 26% Housed on Campus

Slide98: 

Campuses Have Increased Student Housing Goals for 2011-12 20% 23% 30% 27% 24% 35% 14% 20% 42% 29% 38% 36% 39% 32% 42% 39% 30% 60% 50% Housed (2011-12) More Student Housing for: Enrollment Growth and 38% Housed on Campus Fall Headcount Enrollment/ Students Housed

Student Housing PlanSystemwide Benchmarks: 

Student Housing Plan Systemwide Benchmarks

UC Student Housing PlanStudent Housing Base 2001-02: 

UC Student Housing Plan Student Housing Base 2001-02

UC Student Housing PlanNew UC Owned Beds by 2011-12: 

UC Student Housing Plan New UC Owned Beds by 2011-12

UC Student Housing Plan New Beds by 3rd Party Developers: 

UC Student Housing Plan New Beds by 3rd Party Developers

3rd Party On-Campus and Community Housing: 

3rd Party On-Campus and Community Housing Major expansion Complex management, financial and tax issues State incentives for off-campus development Community support for student, faculty and staff housing

Uncertainties That Could Affect the Housing Plan: 

Uncertainties That Could Affect the Housing Plan Growth Economic environment Financing 3rd party development State and community support

Faculty and Staff Housing Programs: 

Faculty and Staff Housing Programs Faculty housing programs Staff housing programs Nationally recruited Other staff needs

Faculty and Staff Housing Recommendations: 

Faculty and Staff Housing Recommendations Increase maximum loan thresholds; Increase the maximum allowable loan term to 40 years; Introduce a new graduated payment mortgage program; Increase the size of the mortgage program.

Campus Plans for Additional Faculty and Staff Housing: 

Campus Plans for Additional Faculty and Staff Housing Nine campuses are exploring plans for developing additional for-sale and/or rental units resources for faculty and staff. As of June 30, 2002, there are 966 for-sale housing units and 711 rental units for faculty and staff.

Status: 

Status Revised mortgage program guidelines have been implemented. New graduated-payment mortgage program has been launched. Mortgage pool has been sold.

Summary: 

Summary Housing is a critical resource. Need to monitor progress toward housing goals. Annual housing report to Regents.

Today’s Agenda: 

Today’s Agenda Overview Enrollment plans Faculty recruitment and retention Resources Housing task force report Summary and future topics

Take-Home Messages: 

Take-Home Messages Higher education is more important than ever UC faces a period of exceptional growth Can we maintain quality given California’s fiscal crisis? California is well positioned for economic competitiveness later in the decade But, the state may be slower in rebounding this time So, need to monitor benchmarks continuously

Are We on Track?: 

Are We on Track? Slow Moving Indicators Graduation rates for undergraduates Research funding Rankings of departments and programs Early Warning Indicators Undergraduate enrollment Graduate enrollment Faculty hiring Staff salaries Academic support Financial aid Graduate student support Facilities

Future Topics: 

Future Topics Regular review of the benchmarks Focused discussions on key topics Demographic trends Enrollment projections Competitive salaries Capital program funding Graduate student support Technology transfer