Volatility in stock market

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Volatility in Stock Market: 

Volatility in Stock Market Dr. Abhijit P. Phadnis Presentation in Finance Fair Lokmanya Seva Sangh, Vileparle September 25, 2011

Overview: 

Overview What is volatility? Causes of volatility Measures of volatility Defense against volatility

Volatility: 

Volatility Variation in price of an asset Change in price against our expectation Movement larger than expected Erosion of capital or potential erosion

Causes of volatility: 

Causes of volatility Global economic environment Domestic economic environment Domestic political environment Characteristics of asset class Characteristics of specific asset within the class Human behaviour Media

Global economic environment: 

Global economic environment US: Worries of recession again Europe: In debt trap Euro: Would it splinter? Unemployment in US & Europe Risk aversion: Gold, Swiss Franks, Yen Arab Spring & worries about oil Chinese commodities aggression

Domestic economic environment: 

Domestic economic environment Unrelenting inflation Global commodity price pressures Agri commodity price pressures Tightening of interest rates Slowing growth: intended consequence High input & interest costs Increase in sales but moderate increase in profits: loss of full pricing power Risk of deficit, higher than envisaged

Domestic political environment: 

Domestic political environment Mired in corruption scandals Lack of decisive leadership External power centers Conflict of interest

Characteristic of asset class: 

Characteristic of asset class External drivers impact each asset class differently Shares Lower interest rates  Uncertainties  Higher commodity prices  Higher growth 

Characteristic of specific stock: 

Characteristic of specific stock Market capitalization Management Leverage Promoter Shareholding Collateralized Promoter Shares Hype around business models Expectations built into price

Operating and Financial Leverage: 

Operating and Financial Leverage 10 Sales 600 Variable Costs 450 Fixed Cost 50 Less: Interest 20 Earnings Before Tax 80 Contribution 150 EBITDA or Operating profit 100 Operating Leverage = 150/100 = 1.5 Financial Leverage = 100/80 = 1.25 Total leverage = 1.5 X 1.25 = 1.875

When Sales move up by 10%: 

When Sales move up by 10% 11 Sales 660 Variable Costs 495 Fixed Cost 50 Less: Interest 20 Earnings Before Tax 95 Contribution 165 EBITDA or Operating profit 115 For 10% jump in sales Profit goes up by 18.75%

When sales go down by 10%: 

When sales go down by 10% 12 Sales 540 Variable Costs 405 Fixed Cost 50 Less: Interest 20 Earnings Before Tax 65 Contribution 135 EBITDA or Operating profit 85 For 10% fall in sales Profit goes down by 18.75%

Human aspects: 

Human aspects Individual circumstances Greed & fear: Collective psyche Individual (retail) vs. institutional Circumstances Expertise Volatility is in the mind!

Media: 

Media Media adds to the confusion & panic Vested interests Planting of news Plays on listeners mind

Measures of volatility: 

Measures of volatility Standard deviation of the returns VIX Beta

Cyclical movements: 

Cyclical movements Bonds Stocks Commodities Bonds Stocks Commodities

Strategies: 

Strategies Riding the correct asset class Manage exposure Balancing with your current income & wealth Family responsibilities Being nimble footed to switch Exploit the opportunities thrown by volatility