pad 770 policy website - abortion

Slide 1:

Jessica C. Rivera, PAD 770/Professor Adam Wandt John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Abortions From 1973-2008

Introduction:

Introduction Problem After Roe vs. Wade granted women the right over their own bodies in 1973, America has been divided into 2 categories: Pro-Life or Pro-Choice. Abortions following the implementation of this court case increased. Do court cases such as this one or Planned Parenthood vs. Casey have an immediate, short, or long term impact on society? Importance Depending on what the Supreme Court or Judicial branch decides is either constitutional or not constitutional impacts how social issues will affect society (i.e. Brown vs. Board of Ed. or The struck down Citizenship Reform Act of 2005 ) Question Does court cases such as Planned Parenthood vs. Casey (1992) create an immediate, short, or long term impact on the annual abortion total?

Identifying the Study:

Identifying the Study Independent Time, Immediate, Short, and Long Term Impact Dependent Increased Abortion Total

Theoretical Framework:

Theoretical Framework Ywd = a = b|Tj + b2PEj + b3STEk + b4LTE| + eijk |, where Ywd represents the predicted values of abortion total diversity following the 1992 court case; a represents the intercept of the regression equation; Bi represents the regression coefficient associated with time; T represents the effect of time on the levels of abortion total for the time series; b2 represents the regression coefficient associated with the pulse effect of the 1992 court case initiative; BEj represents the immediate effect of the 1992 court case initiative for the time series; b3 represents the regression coefficient associated with the short term effect of the abortion total diversity initiative; STEk represents the short-term effect of the 1992 court case initiative for the time series; B4 represents the regression coefficient associated with the long term effect of the 1992 court case initiative; LTE| represents the long term effect of the 1992 court case initiative for the time series; £ ijki represents the error term of the regression equation

Null & Alternative Hypothesis:

Null & Alternative Hypothesis Hoi: the intercept (a) for the regression line for the relationship between time and the 1992 court case initiative is zero (Symbolically, Hoi: a = 0; Hoa ^ a ^ 0) H02: the regression coefficient (Bi) for the regression line for the relationship between the effect of time and the 1992 court case is zero (Symbolically, H02: Bi = 0; Hob: Bi ^ 0) H03: the regression coefficient (bi) for the regression line for the relationship between the immediate effect and the 1992 court case is zero (Symbolically, H03: B2 = 0; Hoc: B2 ^ 0) H04: the regression coefficient (B2) for the regression line for the relationship between short term effect and the level of abortion totals is zero (Symbolically, H04: B3 = 0; Hod : B3 ■£ 0) H05: the regression coefficient (B3) for the regression line for the relationship between the long term effect and the level of abortion totals is zero (Symbolically, Hos : B4 = 0; Hoe: B4 ^0) These null hypotheses are tested below at a = .05.

Statistical Results:

Statistical Results ANOVA bkm Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 2.449E11 3 8.164E10 2.078 .123 a Residual 1.257E12 32 3.929E10 Total 1.502E12 35 Coefficients a Model Ungstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta (Constant) 1425450.000 44321.525 .000 Policies like Roe v Wade Give Immediate Impact -90698.857 225582.030 -.073 -.402 .690 Policies like Roe v Wade Give Shortterm Impact 6334.964 126289.500 .015 .050 .960 Policies like Roe v Wade Give Longterm Impact 14813.893 11845.426 .379 1.251 .220

Discussion :

Discussion The bivariate analysis of Planned Parenthood vs. Casey case of 1992 suggests that policies that uphold Roe vs. Wade such as Planned Parenthood vs. Casey decreased abortion totals. In the case of the 1992 court case of Casey, the abortion total that followed the subsequent years decreased over the short-term. The policy did not develop immediate or long term effects. This is observed as abortion totals in the after 1992 are lower compared to the year that the initiative was implemented.

Findings:

Findings No immediate, short, or long term effect on abortion totals.

Conclusion:

Conclusion This study regarding the implementation of policy Planned Parenthood vs. Casey case of 1992 suggests that the abortion total is decreasing, but it can be due to the impact policies have on public opinion or other affecting variables like social demographics.