Colorado Springs - Compassion International - 3- 2011

Thomas Frey Executive Director:

Thomas Frey Executive Director DaVinci Institute PO Box 270315 Louisville, CO 80027 (303) 666-4133 dr2tom@davinciinstitute.com Compassion International “Communication Trends"

The Future is…:

The Future is… Constantly unfolding Relentless Happening whether we want it to or not One of nature’s greatest forces

Slide 3:

The future will happen with or without us agreeing to participate

Slide 4:

If your next project is not aligned with the problems, needs, and desires of the future, the future will kill it!

Slide 5:

So, what does the future want?

Slide 6:

Click on View>Toolbars> Control Toolbox>More Controls. Scroll down to "Shockwave Flash Object." 3. Draw a box the size you want. Right click on the box and choose "Properties." Double click on "Custom." 4. Copy the URL that you used on your YouTube video (located in the box, not the address line) and paste it in the URL box under "Custom." You'll need to make a few changes to your URL to make it work. 5. Delete the "watch?" and replace the equal sign with a forward slash. Make sure the "embed movie " box is unchecked. Click "Apply" and "OK." 6. Save your presentation to where you want it. Then open it and check to make sure the video is working properly.

Future of Advice:

Future of Advice

Future of Advice:

Future of Advice What is the future for advice-givers?

Future of Advice:

Future of Advice Who do we trust to give us advice, and how do we form our “trust” criteria?

Future of Advice:

Future of Advice When advice-givers can walk in our shoes?

Slide 11:

“When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.” - - Max Planck (Nobel Physicist)

System Thinking:

System Thinking Greek Mathematicians Pythagoras Archimedes Roman Mathematicians ?

System Thinking:

System Thinking What systems do we employ today that are the equivalent of Roman Numerals?

Rick Wakeman:

Rick Wakeman http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbdVvH_0rCs What technologies do we employ today that are the equivalent of Roman Numerals?

Global Trend:

Global Trend Atoms Vs. Electrons

Atoms Vs. Electrons:

Atoms Vs. Electrons There is a war being waged between “atoms” and “electrons” Digital and virtual is moving exponentially faster than anything that requires manipulating physical materials The disruptors are armed with electrons

Atoms Vs. Electrons:

Atoms Vs. Electrons Physical Products Raw materials Designers and engineers Shipping & receiving Inventory Warehouse space Shelf space Marketing & sales Taxes Digital Products Designers and programmers Marketing

Bridging the Gap:

Bridging the Gap Physical World Digital World I The Interface

Apps:

Apps

iPhone Apps:

iPhone Apps Total Apps: 353,427 Active Publishers: 74,049 Total Downloads: Over 10 billion

Android Apps:

Android Apps Total Apps: 256,468 Total Downloads: Over 3.5 billion

Windows 7 Phone Apps:

Windows 7 Phone Apps Total Apps: 5,855

Facebook Apps:

Facebook Apps Total Apps: 57,514 Active Publishers: Over 200,000 developers currently evaluating the platform Over 600 million Facebook users

Samsung Smart TV:

Samsung Smart TV Total Apps: 380 Total Free Apps: 259 Total Downloads: Over 2 million

Google TV Apps:

Google TV Apps Released the open API code in Oct 2010 Very interested in controlling the flow of ads to your TV

Where are the apps for my…:

Where are the apps for my… Car House Tractor Boat

Car Apps:

Car Apps Can’t drive over the speed limit Where is the closest parking space? Where is the cheapest parking? Over time, my car gets to know me Restaurants Cultural events If I’m late for a meeting….

House Apps:

House Apps Monitoring and control of all inputs – water, electricity, air, etc Monitoring and control of all outputs – sewage, trash, etc Electrical storage Water storage

Three Primary Friction Points:

Three Primary Friction Points Shoes Chairs Beds

Where are the apps…:

Where are the apps… That I can check out in my library? …for my library

The Evolution of…:

The Evolution of… Literacy Books Education Work

Global Trend #1 The Evolution of Literacy:

Global Trend #1 The Evolution of Literacy

Question:

Question

Question:

Question How long will it be before people can get a PhD without being literate?

Socrates:

Socrates Socrates is person who never wrote anything If Plato hadn’t written about Socrates, all would have been lost

Question:

Question Is reading the ultimate information experience?

Question:

Question Are books a technology equivalent to Roman Numerals? Is reading a system equivalent to Roman Numerals? Is there something better?

Future Literacy:

Future Literacy Reading & Writing Computer Web Surfing Search Engine Social Networking Smartphones ? ? ? ? ? Literacy is never static

Slide 42:

100,500 Increasing 2.6% per year

Word Consumption:

Word Consumption 2009 Report on American Consumers

Word Consumption:

Word Consumption 2009 Report on American Consumers

Power of 10 Interface:

Power of 10 Interface 10 Hour Interface

Power of 10 Interface:

Power of 10 Interface 10 Hour Interface 10 Minute Interface

Power of 10 Interface:

Power of 10 Interface 10 Hour Interface 10 Minute Interface 10 Second Interface

Power of 10 Interface:

Power of 10 Interface

Global Trend #2:

Global Trend #2 The Evolution of Books

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books In what year will the last printed book be published?

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Bi Sheng – Invented movable type in 1040 AD

Equivalent to Roman Numerals:

Equivalent to Roman Numerals 3,000 commonly used characters

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Gutenberg Press

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Thorp Courier Printing Press - 1893

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Espresso Book Machine™

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Amazon’s Kindle

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Sony Book Reader

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Barnes & Noble Nook

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books LG Solar Powered Book Reader

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Wikireader Alex by Spring-Design

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books PocketBook iRiver

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books eSlick by Foxit JetBook

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Hanvon – 4 Models

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Que by Plastic Logic

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books Entourage Edge

The Evolution of Books:

The Evolution of Books iPad

E-book Trends:

E-book Trends E-books - 9% of consumer book sales Up 193% from last year Harris Poll – 20% either own or plan to buy one within 6 months 2007 - Kindles cost $399 2010 – Kindles cost $139

E-book Trends:

E-book Trends 57% of kids interested in reading e-books 33% more likely to read "more books for fun" on e-books

Future Books:

Future Books Pico Projectors

Future Books:

Future Books

Future Books:

Future Books

Prediction - Books in 2020:

Prediction - Books in 2020 “…books are now akin to an online forum, with authors, experts and other readers available to discuss and answer questions on almost every important book ever written.”

Prediction:

Prediction Within 10 years the majority of libraries will not have books in them

Sept 2009 - “Cushing Academy Goes Bookless”:

Sept 2009 - “Cushing Academy Goes Bookless” "Instead of a traditional library with 20,000 books, we’re building a virtual library where students will have access to millions of books” - - Headmaster James Tracy

Sept 2010 - “University of Texas at San Antonio Goes Bookless”:

Sept 2010 - “University of Texas at San Antonio Goes Bookless” “First “bookless library” at any university in the United States

Recommendation: Electronic Outposts:

Recommendation: Electronic Outposts Magazines & periodicals Reading area Search Command Center Studios No books Efficient operation with 1-2 people staffing it

Global Trend #3 The Evolution of Education:

Global Trend #3 The Evolution of Education

Slide 80:

Organically Generated Courses

Slide 81:

Organically Generated Courses Global Distribution System

Education - The Great Transformation:

Education - The Great Transformation Transition from teaching to learning Teaching requires experts As information expands exponentially, we lose our ability to train new experts fast enough Teachers become a chokepoint

Exponential Growth of Information:

Exponential Growth of Information Facebook , YouTube , Yahoo

Exponential Growth of Information:

Exponential Growth of Information Facebook , YouTube , Yahoo, Courses

Courseware Vacuum   :

Courseware Vacuum Information is growing exponentially Courseware has not kept pace

Courseware Vacuum   :

Courseware Vacuum Open Education Movement MIT OpenCourseWare – 1,800 courses The OpenCourseWare Consortium - 200 universities – 13,000 courses Connexions Wikiversity - a division of Wikipedia Moodle – over 3 million courses. Curriki.org – Started by Sun Microsystems

iTunes U:

iTunes U Oct 2008 – “Apple Hires Dr. Joel Podolny, the Dean of Yale University’s School of Management, to run the new Apple University.”

Online Courses:

Online Courses “Today a full 80% of colleges employ some form of online education” – eMarketer.com

Online Courses:

Online Courses “On average, students in online learning conditions performed better than those receiving face-to-face instruction.” - - SRI International for the U.S. Dept of Education

What is the Primary Inflection Point for Change?:

What is the Primary Inflection Point for Change? Specially architected rapid courseware builder

Rapid Courseware Builder:

Rapid Courseware Builder

Future of Education:

Future of Education Hyper-Individualized Learning Self-Paced Organically Generated Content Modality Diverse Available On Demand 24-7 Any Topic – Anywhere - Anytime

Future of Education:

Future of Education Attributes of the Future Education System Less dependence on teachers Less dependence on schools More personal control

Future of Education Prediction:

Future of Education Prediction Libraries will become the working laboratories for the creation of innovative new courses

Will Rogers:

Will Rogers “Libraries ain't what they used to be and never was.” -- Will Rogers

Global Trend #4 The Evolution of Work:

Global Trend #4 The Evolution of Work

Slide 97:

The Diminishing Value of Proximity

In the Past…:

In the Past… …collective intelligence was achieved by putting like-minded people in the same room …through proximity

The Value of Proximity:

The Value of Proximity We choose where we live, work, and conduct business based on proximity of key assets

The Value of Proximity:

The Value of Proximity Most Critical Business Assets Customers Talent Vendors Suppliers Business Networks Favorable Laws Airport Business Services

Telepresence Room:

Telepresence Room Today we have other ways to compensate for physical proximity

Telepresence Room:

Telepresence Room TelePresence Tech

Virtual World Meetings:

Virtual World Meetings

Slide 104:

“…face to face meetings will not go away simply because they become unnecessary. They will only go away if they can be replaced by something better”

Human Connectedness:

Human Connectedness Communities in the future will be designed around new ways for people to meet people and libraries will play a critical role.

Human Connectedness:

Human Connectedness Future communities will be judged by their vibrancy, their interconnectedness, the fluid structures for causing positive human collisions

8 Dimensions of Human Connectedness:

8 Dimensions of Human Connectedness Money & income Health & fitness Sports & recreation Entertainment Education & learning Culture & events Goods & services Love & relationships

8 Dimensions of Human Connectedness:

8 Dimensions of Human Connectedness Every dimension of human connectedness is an information sphere that requires its own unique user interface

Telework Trends :

Telework Trends 40% of U.S. employees hold jobs that that could be done at home (50 million). Half of all U.S. businesses are home-based (16 million) Undress for Success and the Telework Research Network

Telework Trends :

Telework Trends 40% federal employees eligible but only 17% do so 36% of private sector employees eligible but only 16% do so Undress for Success and the Telework Research Network Telework has a bad interface

Telework Trends :

Telework Trends 72% of employees say flexible work arrangements would cause them to choose one job over another Undress for Success and the Telework Research Network

Telework Trends :

Telework Trends People who work from home suffer from one of two problems – isolation or distractions

Critical Trends :

Critical Trends Teleworkers are searching for other places to work – that proverbial third place

Latest Trend - Coworking:

Latest Trend - Coworking

DaVinci Institute – The Vault:

DaVinci Institute – The Vault

DaVinci Institute – The Vault:

DaVinci Institute – The Vault

DaVinci Institute – The Vault:

DaVinci Institute – The Vault

Question:

Question If your library were to cater to the needs of people who work from their homes, what features would you add?

The Coming Wave of Entrepreneurship:

The Coming Wave of Entrepreneurship

The Coming Wave of Entrepreneurship:

The Coming Wave of Entrepreneurship For every 100 individuals that join the ranks of the unemployed, 7 will start a new business

Slide 122:

14.7 million people currently unemployed US Dept of Labor – Dec 2009

However…:

However… No money for startups

As a result…:

As a result… Major new era of internet startups Talent shifting into the online world

Empire of One:

Empire of One One person business with far reaching influence

Empire of One:

Empire of One Typical Scenario: Products manufactured in China or India Sent to a distribution center in Spain, Norway or Canada Sold to customers in the UK, Germany, or Brazil All controlled by one person

Empire of One:

Empire of One Outsource Everything Manufacturing Operations Marketing Distribution Bookkeeping Legal

Empire of One:

Empire of One Eliminate HR problems Freedom to travel Control your own destiny

Empire of One:

Empire of One Examples SuperStructs Cuff Daddy Monkey-Toes Licorice International

Slide 130:

11 Jobs 200-300 Projects

Evolution of Work:

Evolution of Work 68% of newly created jobs are temp jobs – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Freelancers = 20% of workforce, increasing to 25% next year – Aberdeen Group

Business Colonies:

Business Colonies The cost of employment will continue to rise We are putting more and more power into the hands of the individual

Business Colonies:

Business Colonies Business projects will form and disappear organically Groupings of “project people” working together as projects form, complete, and disappear

Business Colonies:

Business Colonies Business colonies will form around diverse industries - photonics, nanotech, biotech, consumer products, IT niches and many more

Business Colonies:

Business Colonies Library

Evolution of Work:

Evolution of Work 68% of newly created jobs are temp jobs – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Freelancers = 20% of workforce, increasing to 25% next year – Aberdeen Group

Evolution of Work:

Evolution of Work More women More older workers More anytime/anyplace jobs From careers to micro-jobs Increase emphasis on technology From outsourcing to crowdsourcing Increasing problem with skill shortages Fewer employees - more contractors

Nagging Question:

Nagging Question

Nagging Question:

Nagging Question If traditional books go away and if literacy is evolving, what role will future libraries serve?

The New Relevancy Test:

The New Relevancy Test

Google’s Page Rank:

Google’s Page Rank Page Rank is Google’s way of determining the relevancy and overall value of a website

The New Relevancy Test:

The New Relevancy Test People do similar evaluations on libraries to determine relevancy to them personally.

The New Relevancy Test:

The New Relevancy Test Relevant to employers Relevant to employees Relevant to students Relevant to non-students Relevant to the community Relevant to visitors Relevant to techie users Relevant to non-techie users Relevant to impulse users Relevant to planned users

Tools of Production:

Tools of Production

Tools of Production:

Tools of Production “When the tools of production are available to everyone, everyone becomes a producer” – Chris Anderson, Editor of Wired Magazine

Library Transition from Consumers to Producers:

Library Transition from Consumers to Producers People are no longer satisfied with just receiving information, they want to help create it.

Library Transition from Consumers to Producers:

Library Transition from Consumers to Producers From readers to writers From listeners to composers From television watchers to television producers

Recommendation: Production Studio:

Recommendation: Production Studio

Production Studios:

Production Studios Blogging Stations

Production Studios:

Production Studios Podcast Studios

Production Studios:

Production Studios Audio Capture – Audio Editing Studios

Production Studios:

Production Studios Video Capture – Video Edit Rooms

Band Practice Studios:

Band Practice Studios 2.2 million bands listed online

Band Practice Studios:

Band Practice Studios General Music Rooms

Entertainment Studios:

Entertainment Studios Computer gaming now touches 75% of all US homes

Entertainment Studios:

Entertainment Studios Second Life and Virtual World Stations Webkins , Worlds of Warcraft , Club Penguin, Metaplace , Sloodle , Whyville …

Entertainment Studios:

Entertainment Studios

Entertainment Studios:

Entertainment Studios Mini-Theaters – Mini-Planetariums

Entertainment Studios:

Entertainment Studios Art Studio

Entertainment Studios:

Entertainment Studios Exercise Areas

The Walkstation :

The Walkstation

Archiving Your Community:

Archiving Your Community

Time Capsule Room:

Time Capsule Room

Real-Time Information Wall:

Real-Time Information Wall Population stats – city, county, state National debt Immigration Website URLS Book sales Newspaper subscribers

Pet Loaning Program:

Pet Loaning Program

Recommendation: The Expert Series:

Recommendation: The Expert Series People feel very uncertain about all of the new technology and what they should be paying attention to

Recommendation: The Expert Series:

Recommendation: The Expert Series A monthly panel of experts to answer audience tech questions

Recommendation: The Expert Series:

Recommendation: The Expert Series

Search Command Center:

Search Command Center

Next Gen Libraries:

Next Gen Libraries Experimentation

Slide 171:

So, what does the future want?

Slide 172:

How does the future get created?

Slide 173:

The future gets created in the minds of people around us Super Creative Core – 11.7% Creative Professionals – 18.3% Richard Florida – “Rise of the Creative Class”

People make decisions today based on their interpretation of what the future holds:

People make decisions today based on their interpretation of what the future holds Image by Stephan Martiniere

Slide 175:

The Future Creates the Present

Our visions of the future determines our actions today:

Our visions of the future determines our actions today Image by Stephan Martiniere

Slide 177:

If we change people’s visions of the future, we change the way they make decisions

Slide 178:

So, how do we change people’s visions of the future?

Slide 179:

DaVinci Institute Process “Communicating with the Future”

Slide 180:

Step One Building the Vision

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision Most people believe the future to be a random set of unpredictable occurrences

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision However, most aspects of the future can be predicted with a high degree of probability

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision High probability prediction: The building that we are in today will still be standing six months from now.

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision High probability prediction: The earth will travel around the sun in the same orbit 50 years from now.

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision High probability prediction: The laws of gravity will still be in effect 100 years from now.

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision High probability prediction: People will still need to communicate 100 years from now

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision High probability prediction: We will still have the seasons of spring, summer, fall, and winter 50 years from now

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision High probability prediction: If we plant seeds they will grow into full grown plants

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision High probability prediction: If we plan a birthday party two weeks from now, we have great certainty that it will happen

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision Most of our future is being formed upon a foundation of stable slow-changing elements that are highly predictable.

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision Areas of greatest uncertainty include: Natural Systems Weather Earthquakes Floods Animals Insects Human Systems Technology Government Economy Energy Human behavior

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision Our ability to manage and direct both natural systems and human systems gives us the keys to controlling our future

Slide 193:

Leonardo DaVinci dedicated over 500 drawings and 35,000 words to the concept of flying.

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision First, conceptualize the idea Second, add dimension and detail to add realism

Step One: Building the Vision:

Step One: Building the Vision Realism creates viability in the minds of the visionaries

Crowd Inspired Innovation:

Crowd Inspired Innovation Short stories Graphic art Animations Models Surveys Interviews Videos

Slide 197:

Once there is a sufficient body of work, the vision becomes self-perpetuating

Slide 198:

We create exactly what the future wants?

Thomas Edison:

Thomas Edison “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” -- Thomas Edison

Thomas Frey Executive Director:

Thomas Frey Executive Director DaVinci Institute PO Box 270315 Louisville, CO 80027 (303) 666-4133 dr2tom@davinciinstitute.com Innovative Interfaces Newsletter Offer: FREE Weekly “Future Trend Report”