india-vision 2030

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THE PATH TO 2030: OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES LOKESH KUMAR MADRAS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS:

THE PATH TO 2030: OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES LOKESH KUMAR MADRAS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

INCREDIBLE INDIA’S STORY:

INCREDIBLE INDIA’S STORY Where are we coming from? Where are we today? Where are we going in the future?

62 YEARS AND STILL GOING STRONG THAT’S INDIA………:

62 YEARS AND STILL GOING STRONG THAT’S INDIA……… A country once known for poverty, malnutrition & stagnation today boasts of a new sets of icons-its software industry and manufacturing India now has the second fastest growing economy in the world, surpassed only by china In 2007,India’s per capita GDP was $988. Based on this performance, the world bank reclassified it from a low income country to lower middle income country in 2008. .

INDIA’S PROMISE:

INDIA’S PROMISE Attain GNI $4760 billion in 2030 Next knowledge super power India middle class would rise from 50 million to 583 million by 2025 The region to the east of kanpur-chennai will see much better prospects Per capita income will see a four fold increase over next 20 years

FUNDAMENTALS:

FUNDAMENTALS The rapid increase in the size of india’s emerging middle class would promote entrepreneurship and fuel consumption. India’s forthcoming demographic dividend & urbanization would fuel further growth. India’s domestic saving and investment rates have reached east Asian level that along with prudent macroeconomic policies, would drive productivity improvements and fuel rapid economic growth.

Fundamentals hampered by some major handicaps:

Fundamentals hampered by some major handicaps Infrastructure bottlenecks Poor education & health care system Massive government failures Poor governance Widening regional disparity

CHALLENGES:

CHALLENGES Learn the lesson of experience from other middle income countries-”MIDDLE INCOME TRAP” Proliferation of ministries and government offices Corruption-major hurdle in growth and development Courts are clogged with large backlog of pending cases

Slide 8:

Falling food availability and rising working age population Maintain price stability which is threatening to rise all fronts. Labor reforms- India's demographic dividend can turn into a demographic disaster

HOW TO APPROACH…..:

HOW TO APPROACH….. Infrastructure- look not at the top cities but the bottom ones also it doesn’t imply public deficit but calls for state and fiscal reform

Slide 10:

To avoid regional disparity follow Gujarat approach: “MINIMUM GOVT. AND MAXIMUM GOVERNANCE” E-gram programme , SWAGAT(state wise attention on grievances by application of technology) It accounted for 25.8% of all investments in India during 2006/07

Slide 11:

Government reforms- privatization not the only answer create an arm length relationship between government and public enterprises A huge requirement of talented manpower to sustain growth, so Education sector should continue to receive priority from govt.

If India keeps in mind all the challenges in the path to 2030 ,I can expect that India’s voyage will be one of the great voyages of the 21st century:

If India keeps in mind all the challenges in the path to 2030 ,I can expect that India’s voyage will be one of the great voyages of the 21 st century

Thank you:

Thank you

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