Satellite Communications VSAT

Satellite Communications A Part - Final:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 1 Satellite Communications A Part - Final The Future -Professor Barry G Evans-

Timeline - development of commercial satcom (1/2):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 2 Timeline - development of commercial satcom (1/2) 1945 Arthur C Clarke 1956 First transatlantic telephone cable 1962 Telstar 1964 Intelsat founded 1965 Earlybird 1969 Intelsat completes global system 1976 Marisats launched 1977 Eutelsat created 1979 Inmarsat created 1982 Inmarsat starts operations 1983 Eutelsat F1 launched

Timeline – development of commercial satcom (2/2):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 3 Timeline – development of commercial satcom (2/2) 1984 PanAmSat founded 1985 SES Astra incorporated 1987 Iridium conceived 1988 First transatlantic fibre cable 1988 First PanAmSat launch 1989 First SES Astra launch 1995 PanAmSat completes global system 1998 Iridium service launch 1999 Iridium in Chapter 11 2001 Intelsat & Eutelsat privatisations

Where we are now (1):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 4 Where we are now (1) Satcom applications: Vsat + business TV Broadcast + content delivery TV distribution & contribution Internet trunking Internet access Basic telephony + private circuits Mobile + transportable + offshore Thin route + rural remote Disaster, emergency Government

Where we are now (2) :

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 5 Where we are now (2) Disadvantages of satellite: Low capacity (compared to fibre) End-to-end delay (with Geo technology) Large, up-front investment; long time to pay back Implementation risks Exit costs Regulatory constraints/finite raw materials (orbital slots; spectrum; licensing/market access)

Where we are now (3):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 6 Where we are now (3) Advantages of satellite: Wide area coverage Global reach Low cost per site passed Fast set-up & reconfiguration Availability where terrestrial alternatives are poor, non-existent or not an option Ability to broadcast/multicast

Industry revenues in 2000:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 7 Industry revenues in 2000 Worldwide satellite industry revenues Manufacturing $ 18.3 B Launch $ 9.6 B Services $ 37.0 B Ground Equipment $ 17.7 B Total $ 82.6 B SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000

Satellite services revenues 2000:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 8 Satellite services revenues 2000 Transponder leasing $ 8.8 B DTH $ 24.7 B MSS (telephony) $ 0.4 B VSAT $ 1.4 B MSS (data) $ 1.3 B Remote sensing $ 0.4 B Total $ 37.0 B SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000

Satellite services customers 2000:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 9 Satellite services customers 2000 DTH Subscribers 67.0 M VSAT Units in operation 610,000 MSS Data units in operation 854,000 Telephony units in operation 274,300 SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000

Global projections:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 10 Global projections Projected revenues of the satellite industry 2001 $ 100.0 B 2010 $ 200-300.0 B Projected subscribers to digital radio 2010 50 M Projected revenues from broadband services 2008 $ 37 B. SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000; ISBC State of the Space Industry 2000; Pioneer Consulting

Satellite is essential infrastructure:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 11 Satellite is essential infrastructure Broadcasting to businesses and homes (DTH) Broadcasting to cable head-ends Cable TV distribution dependent upon satellite ISP connectivity; caching; multicasting Distribution of internet content Private Networks VSAT networks key corporate private network SNG Broadcast stations and news bureaus rely on satellite links.

Changing Scenes:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 12 Changing Scenes 1995 – Bright prospects for terrestrial mobile and satellites 2000 – Terrestrial mobile booming satellites collapse with Iridium/Globalstar failures 2002 – Satellite broadcasting and Internet booming terrestrial 3G in Doldrums “ Our ability to predict the telecoms market and to provide affordable services is poor ”

2002: What’s new:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 13 2002: What’s new Internet drives FSS DVB – Direct TV success Satellite radio (DAB/DARS) prospects Mobile SPCN’s crash –end of constellations? INMARSAT niche still strong

General Climate of Change (1/3):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 14 General Climate of Change (1/3) Deregulation / Liberalisation Inmarsat / Intelsat / Eutelsat: private companies Global operations via acquisitions 1. SES-Global (>$1billion turnover) 2. Intelsat 3. Panamsat 4. Eutelsat Consolidation of manufacturers Europe: Alcatel Space, Astrium, Alenia US: Boeing, Lockheed, Loral

General Climate of Change (2/3):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 15 General Climate of Change (2/3) Standards Satellite moving same way as Mobile –GMR standards and now S-UMTS Spectrum Limited (WRC00 – Little for satellites) Sharing/Pricing –Satellite advantage Efficiency –Can satellites provide?

General Climate of Change (3/3):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 16 General Climate of Change (3/3) Convergence Fixed/Mobile/Broadcasting Service mobility Billing convergence Investment –Changes rapidly – Satellites poor at moment Competition –Cable, fixed radio, HAPS

Where we are now:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 17 Where we are now Total satcom industry revenues were $27 Bn in 2000 (around 3% of global telecom revenues) - Source: ESA Internet via satellite services generated $800M global revenues in 2000, from zero in 1997 - Source: DTT Consulting Total satcom industry revenues are projected to grow to $106 Bn by 2007. The majority of the growth will come from broadband data and video services. Interactive multimedia revenues are forecast to be $18Bn by 2007, DARS $9Bn - Source: ESA

Lessons to learn (1):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 18 Lessons to learn (1) Commercial: A “big-bang”, high-profile service launch date is unwise There is no such thing as a global service launch The satellite owner/operator will be badly let down by uncommitted or poorly-performing distributors Bad news about one satellite project is bad news for all Satellite systems can not charge whatever they like Confirmed access to spectrum is vital Market access is crucial to business success The first to market is not necessarily the winner Finding killer applications is difficult

Lessons to learn (2):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 19 Lessons to learn (2) Financial: Year one forecasts must be realistic The investors are highly dependent on the performance of the distribution chain. Financing a start-up satellite system is very hard Do not rely on investment banks Exit costs are extremely high Flotation too soon leads to exposure and inflexibility

Lessons to learn (3):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 20 Lessons to learn (3) Technology: The satellite manufacturer will not deliver on time Be realistic about time to market Do not design a satellite system around just one application User terminals can be among the most difficult elements in a “mass-market” satellite project Good technology does not assure commercial success Alternative, non-satellite technologies do not stand still Do not underestimate the complexity and costs of non Geo systems

Lessons to learn (4):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 21 Lessons to learn (4) Service: Motivating distributors is vital It is essential to have service delivery experience at the forefront For the mass-market, continuous service availability is very important User expectations must be carefully managed Distribution strategy must be coherent and focussed Service provision/distribution channels must be aligned closely with the overall interests of the enterprise. They must be up to speed right at the start Service and useful functions are the ultimate deliverables

Remember the advantages of Satellite:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 22 Remember the advantages of Satellite Wide area coverage –broadcast Quick roll-out of services Provides wide bands (high bit rates) Coverage areas that are expensive for terrestrial Avoids terrestrial infrastructure

FSS - Focus on the Internet:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 23 FSS - Focus on the Internet Satellite delivery of IP-based services increased 800% over past two years 11% of all ISPs use some satellite links to connect to the Internet backbone By 2001 total ISP demand for satellite links will equal 216 transponders Internet specific satellite transponder lease revenue will jump from $601M in 2001 to $8.5B in 2006 End-user and ISP satellite multicast equipment to reach over $7B in 2005. DDT Consulting; Frost & Sullivan; Pioneer Consulting

Internet Services:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 24 Internet Services 30-40% Intelsat resources now IP Multicasting from satellites Caching provision offers improved bandwidth and response times Satellite products available – Comsat CLA 2000 TCP/IP Spoofing Slow start/Variable windows LINKWAY 2000 Multiservice BOD ATM/IP/FR/ISDN IP routing protocols (RSVP) BOD adaption

Broadband:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 25 Broadband Ka and constellations lost momentum Back to GEO’s and DVB-S IP to the customer DVB-RCS e-Europe / Broadband Britain – Satellite role 4500 (36MHz equivalent transponders)  7000 by 2007

Satellite Direct To Home (DTH):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 26 Satellite Direct To Home (DTH) 67M subscribers globally - urban, suburban and rural 25M satellite households in Western Europe alone In Spain, Italy, UK and France more satellite households than cable households. DTH taking market share from cable in US Cable increasingly expensive to lay (rights of way) - cable companies looking at satellite options to reach customers DTH presages 2-way internet/broadband demand 52% of Astra users own PCs and 27% have online access.

80% of European digital TV delivered by satellite:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 27 80% of European digital TV delivered by satellite "Another important area is digital television. The market for digital TV doubles or even triples a year in several EU countries. Europe has closed the gap with the USA with over 10 million subscribers. New services are rolled out, ranging from Internet access to digital TV-based e-commerce." From a speech by Mr. Erkki Liikanen, "eEurope and e-Business" Europay International, Key Members' Conference Amsterdam, 1 July 2000

Satellite Broadcasting:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 28 Satellite Broadcasting DBS in USA (>15m subscribers), 43% of digital services DirecTV and EchoStar SNG market growing 97mods to DVB-S allow 90cm-1.5m SCPC 8Mb/s with 8PSK/TCM/16QAM option DVB-RCS now becoming standard for IP delivery

Digital Radio (DAB-DARS):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 29 Digital Radio (DAB-DARS) US Xm Radio (GEO) – up --services operation SIRIUS Radio (HEO) --services operation Infrastructure in place – Deals with leading car/truck companies Radio’s in shops (US) and in cars/trucks Worldwide Worldspace – 3 world coverage satellites Infrastructure/Radios – in place Europe Global Radio / Worldspace S-DAB Convergence broadcasting/mobile – Multimedia and multicasting

Sirius satellite radio system:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 30 Sirius satellite radio system

Satellite: competitive local access:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 31 Satellite: competitive local access Satellite DTH has successfully competed with cable in urban, suburban and rural areas for decades Satellite is a competitive means of local access Only wireless technologies bypass the incumbent’s pipes and offer consumers a real “last mile” choice No other “last mile” technology - DSL, WLL, etc. - has a proven track such as satellite. Satellite will be a critical access means for bandwidth hungry, converged services.

Mobile Satellite Systems:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 32 Mobile Satellite Systems S-PCS (Iridium/Globalstar) failed –lead on competition with terrestrial will not succeed Inmarsat niche market area successful but small  200k users, and expensive Constellations not popular

GEO-Mobiles:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 33 GEO-Mobiles ACES/THURAYA etc. 200 spots from 14m deployables On board dsp – channel to beam routing GSM/GPRS services –GMR standards Can they provide services economically?

GEO Mobile Systems:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 34 GEO Mobile Systems ACES ASC APMT Sat Phone Int. EAST Thuraya QoS/Availability Coverage Service Offerings Timing Price ASIA

Inmarsat Niche Market Extension:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 35 Inmarsat Niche Market Extension

Convergence: Mobile / Broadcasting (positioning):

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 36 Convergence: Mobile / Broadcasting (positioning) Broadcast / Multicasting with caching Push and store services Vehicle’s and handhelds S + T (UMTS) or DVB/DABS with UMTS Location based services tied with Galileo

DMB Broadcast/Multicast mission:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 37 DMB terminal Bluetooth interface DMB Satellite Vehicular DMB receiver Contribution network Broadcast center Gateway Cache server smart antenna User Handset Cache Local Interactivity Remote Interactivity Broadcasting Multicasting DMB Broadcast/Multicast mission Content Delivery Network Model Push mechanism Multicast mechanism Store mechanism

DMB Architecture Synoptic:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 38 DMB Architecture Synoptic Terrestrial Repeaters W-CDMA Multicast W-CDMA Multicast Ground Station Feeder link URBAN AREA SUB - URBAN AREA RURAL AREA GPRS EDGE T-UMTS GSM/GPRS GSM/GPRS W-CDMA 2G/3G Cellular network Contribution network IP WORLD

Opportunity for Satellite:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 39 Where are terrestrial networks weak points? Infrastructure cost Deployment of UMTS islands in a GPRS world Traffic costs Limited bandwidth per cell Environmental (tower, pylon, radiation) Designed for symmetric traffic Where will UMTS network never go? Broadband broadcast/multicast services (not addressed in R99) Don’t you feel any fresh air, there? Opportunity for Satellite

Little LEO’s:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 40 Little LEO’s Definition Constellations of LEO satellites, operating at frequencies < 1GHz, providing non real-time digital communications for applications such as messaging, property tracking, email and telemonitoring 2001 –Orbcomm fails –is this the end? The Orbcomm Constellation

Future Opportunities:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 41 Future Opportunities Keys are BROADBAND INTERACTIVITY INTEGRATION MOBILITY

Future Opportunities:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 42 Future Opportunities Convergence of Satellite delivered broadcast/multicast with terrestrial delivery of other services Broadband internet access and interactivity DVB-RCS –standardisation Mass markets rather than niche Cooperating service provision plus completing terminal networks

Future opportunities:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 43 Future opportunities

Key Constraints:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 44 Key Constraints Spectrum availability at right time Poor perspective of satellites by terrestrial operations Will they embrace as part of global network Unavailability of finance Regulatory issues and standard bodies

Future satellites: Product Developments:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 45 Future satellites: Product Developments Reliable low cost launch capability Large GEO platforms (3-4 tons) – 15Kw Long life, high power/strange/dissipation Autonomy: low cost, rapid production Small LEO platforms Medium life, pointing agility/stability Autonomy: low cost, rapid production Large deployable reflectors 12-14m (Tx/Rx) – 100 spots Active antennas BFNs Phased arrays OBP Beam forming – channelising Regeneration – switching Miniature, active/passive, microwave equipment (L/s, Ku, KA) ISLs (optical)

Conclusions:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 46 Conclusions Markets Very large –up to 4140B by 2010 Asia/Pacific Rim –biggest Digital Broadcast –Internet driven (DVB/DAB) Convergence of mobile/broadcast systems – using local cache’s (push to start) band in vehicle services Broadband Satellites provide early starts 3G UMTS? Multimedia to home Broadband Mobility INMARSAT niche – Maritime/Aero Mass markets opened up by broadcast/mobile convergence Civil/Military Synergies Shift to service delivery/content Emphasis away from equipment manufacture Software service Competition Cable / radio / HAPS

Satellite & the competition:

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final. 47 Satellite & the competition Technical limitations of terrestrial networks will severely restrict broadband availability. Digital subscriber line (DSL) signals decay on long telephone lines or on those of poor quality. Local multipoint distribution service (LMDS) signals cannot penetrate obstructions, buildings. Cable performance deteriorates if too many in a neighborhood log on at the same time. Fiber-to-the-home is a costly retrofit, economically viable only for new housing construction. For up to one third of the population in the U.S. and an even greater portion worldwide, satellite technology will not simply be a choice, it will be the choice.