Slide 1: Capital Budgeting Decision Criteria
Slide 2: Capital Budgeting : the process of planning for purchases of long-term assets. example : Suppose our firm must decide whether to purchase a new plastic molding machine for Rs 2,500,000. How do we decide? Will the machine be profitable? Will our firm earn a high rate of return on the investment?
Slide 3: Decision-making Criteria in Capital Budgeting How do we decide if a capital investment project should be accepted or rejected?
Slide 4: The Ideal Evaluation Method should: a) include all cash flows that occur during the life of the project, b) consider the time value of money , c) incorporate the required rate of return on the project. Decision-making Criteria in Capital Budgeting
Slide 5: Payback Period The number of years needed to recover the initial cash outlay. How long will it take for the project to generate enough cash to pay for itself? PB = Initial cashoutlay Annual Cash Inflows
Slide 6: Payback Period How long will it take for the project to generate enough cash to pay for itself? 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 6 7 (500) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Slide 7: Payback Period How long will it take for the project to generate enough cash to pay for itself? 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 6 7 (500) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Payback period = 3.33 years.
Slide 8: Is a 3.33 year payback period good? Is it acceptable? Firms that use this method will compare the payback calculation to some standard set by the firm. If our senior management had set a cut-off of 5 years for projects like ours, what would be our decision? Accept the project .
Slide 9: Drawbacks of Payback Period: Firm cutoffs are subjective . Does not consider time value of money . Does not consider any required rate of return . Does not consider all of the project’s cash flows .
Slide 10: Drawbacks of Payback Period: Does not consider all of the project’s cash flows. 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 6 7 (500) 150 150 150 150 150 (300) 0 0 Consider this cash flow stream!
Slide 11: Drawbacks of Payback Period: Does not consider all of the project’s cash flows. 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 6 7 (500) 150 150 150 150 150 (300) 0 0 This project is clearly unprofitable, but we would accept it based on a 4-year payback criterion!
Slide 12: Discounted Payback Discounts the cash flows at the firm’s required rate of return. Payback period is calculated using these discounted net cash flows. Problems : Cutoffs are still subjective. Still does not examine all cash flows.
Slide 13: Discounted Payback 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 250 250 250 250 250 Discounted Year Cash Flow CF (14%) 0 -500 -500.00 1 250 219.30
Slide 14: Discounted Payback 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 250 250 250 250 250 Discounted Year Cash Flow CF (14%) 0 -500 -500.00 1 250 219.30 1 year 280.70
Slide 15: Discounted Payback 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 250 250 250 250 250 Discounted Year Cash Flow CF (14%) 0 -500 -500.00 1 250 219.30 1 year 280.70 2 250 192.38
Slide 16: Discounted Payback 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 250 250 250 250 250 Discounted Year Cash Flow CF (14%) 0 -500 -500.00 1 250 219.30 1 year 280.70 2 250 192.38 2 years 88.32
Slide 17: Discounted Payback 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 250 250 250 250 250 Discounted Year Cash Flow CF (14%) 0 -500 -500.00 1 250 219.30 1 year 280.70 2 250 192.38 2 years 88.32 3 250 168.75
Slide 18: Discounted Payback 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 250 250 250 250 250 Discounted Year Cash Flow CF (14%) 0 -500 -500.00 1 250 219.30 1 year 280.70 2 250 192.38 2 years 88.32 3 250 168.75 .52 years
Slide 19: Discounted Payback 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 250 250 250 250 250 Discounted Year Cash Flow CF (14%) 0 -500 -500.00 1 250 219.30 1 year 280.70 2 250 192.38 2 years 88.32 3 250 168.75 .52 years The Discounted Payback is 2.52 years
Slide 20: Other Methods 1) Net Present Value (NPV) 2) Profitability Index (PI) 3) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Each of these decision-making criteria: Examines all net cash flows, Considers the time value of money, and Considers the required rate of return.
Slide 21: Net Present Value NPV = the total PV of the annual net cash flows - the initial outlay. NPV = - IO CF t (1 + k) t n t=1 S
Slide 22: Net Present Value Decision Rule : If NPV is positive, ACCEPT . If NPV is negative, REJECT .
Slide 23: NPV Example Suppose we are considering a capital investment that costs Rs 56,000 and provides annual net cash flows of Rs.4,000, Rs 16,000 , Rs 18,000, Rs 20,000 and Rs 25,000 in 1 st , 2 nd , 3 rd , 4 th and 5 th year. The firm’s cost of capital is 10%.Determine whether firm should accept the proposal or not?
Slide 24: NPV Calculation Year Annual Cash Flow PV Factor PV of Cash Flows 1 4,000 0.909 3,636 2 16,000 0.826 13216 3 18,000 0.751 13518 4 20,000 0.683 13660 5 25,000 0.621 15525 Total 83,000 68,645
Slide 25: NPV CALCULATION: NPV = the total PV of the annual net cash flows - the initial outlay.
Slide 26: Profitability Index NPV = - IO ACF t (1 + k) t n t=1 S
Slide 27: Profitability Index t NPV = - IO ACF t (1 + k) t n t=1 S PI = IO ACF t (1 + k) n t=1 S
Slide 28: Profitability Index Decision Rule : If PI is greater than or equal to 1, ACCEPT . If PI is less than 1, REJECT .
Slide 29: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) IRR : the return on the firm’s invested capital. IRR is simply the rate of return that the firm earns on its capital budgeting projects.
Slide 30: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) NPV = - IO ACF t (1 + k) t n t=1 S
Slide 31: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) n t=1 S IRR: = IO ACF t (1 + IRR) t NPV = - IO ACF t (1 + k) t n t=1 S
Slide 32: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) IRR is the rate of return that makes the PV of the cash flows equal to the initial outlay. This looks very similar to our Yield to Maturity formula for bonds. In fact, YTM is the IRR of a bond. n t=1 S IRR: = IO ACF t (1 + IRR) t
Slide 33: Calculating IRR Looking again at our problem: The IRR is the discount rate that makes the PV of the projected cash flows equal to the initial outlay. 0 1 2 3 4 5 (276,400) 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000 116,000
Slide 34: This is what we are actually doing: 83,000 (PVIFA 4, IRR ) + 116,000 (PVIF 5, IRR ) = 276,400 0 1 2 3 4 5 (276,400) 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000 116,000
Slide 35: This is what we are actually doing: 83,000 (PVIFA 4, IRR ) + 116,000 (PVIF 5, IRR ) = 276,400 This way, we have to solve for IRR by trial and error. 0 1 2 3 4 5 (276,400) 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000 116,000
Slide 36: IRR with your Calculator IRR is easy to find with your financial calculator. Just enter the cash flows as you did with the NPV problem and solve for IRR. You should get IRR = 17.63%!
Slide 37: IRR Decision Rule : If IRR is greater than or equal to the required rate of return, ACCEPT . If IRR is less than the required rate of return, REJECT .
Slide 38: IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional . (- + + + + +) Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +)
Slide 39: IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional . (- + + + + +) Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +) 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 200 100 (200) 400 300
Slide 40: IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional . (- + + + + +) Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +) 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 200 100 (200) 400 300
Slide 41: Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +) We could find 3 different IRRs! 0 1 2 3 4 5 (500) 200 100 (200) 400 300 1 2 3
Slide 42: Summary Problem: Enter the cash flows only once. Find the IRR . Using a discount rate of 15%, find NPV . Add back IO and divide by IO to get PI . 0 1 2 3 4 5 (900) 300 400 400 500 600
Slide 43: Summary Problem: IRR = 34.37%. Using a discount rate of 15%, NPV = $510.52. PI = 1.57. 0 1 2 3 4 5 (900) 300 400 400 500 600