climate_avoided_def

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Slide 1: 

4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 1 Avoided Deforestation with Sustainable Benefits: A Simple Way to Reduce Carbon Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) IISD side event on Market Mechanisms for Sustainable Development: Achieving Benefits for Developing Countries post 2012 Meeting of the Sessional Period of the Subsidiary Bodies to the UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany, May 16, 2007 Brent Swallow ASB Consortium and World Agroforestry Centre

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Avoided Deforestation with Sustainable Benefits Discussion since Montreal (Dec 05) ICRAF Submission: Mar 07 (before Cairns) Based on extensive research across humid tropics (Brazil, Peru, Cameroon, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines) by the ASB consortium.

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Arbitrary national definitions of ‘forest’ Project approach requires great attention to permanence, leakage & additionality – near impossible for REDD Easier to monitor carbon stocks and attribute changes to project activities on re-forested degraded lands 60% uncertainty on country-wide carbon stocks according to IPCC 2006 Much deforestation is planned – partial avoided deforestation difficult to implement at the project level. Good reasons why REDD isn’t in the CDM

Elements of a REDD mechanism: Avoided deforestation with sustainable benefits : 

4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 4 Elements of a REDD mechanism: Avoided deforestation with sustainable benefits Annual national accounts of carbon stocks following IPCC (2006) guidelines for Annex 1. National accountability with improved methods & data National pgms based on accurate assessment of: (1) economics of conservation, deforestation & reafforestation (2) tradeoffs of economic development, carbon & other ecosystem services (3) potential of a range of policy instruments, including markets

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4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 5 Cumulative net avoided GHG emission Opportunity costs to national economy/ t C + 0 - Emissions avoidable at reasonable cost Economics of Carbon Emission Abatement

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4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 6 Cumulative net avoided GHG emission Opportunity costs to national economy/ t C + 0 - Emissions avoidable at reasonable cost Uneconomic forest conversions Bylaws to reduce wildfires Low value conversions (mkt mechanisms) Address tenure conflicts Promote sustainable forest mgt Conversion to oil palm / pulp wood plantation Policy instruments Economics of Carbon Emission Abatement

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4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 7 Reconstruction and prognosis Indonesia as case study 3rd largest GHG emitter?

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4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 8 Ave annual return to land ($/ha) Time averaged Carbon stock (tonnes / ha) 0 Upland rice / fallow Natural forest Community-based forest management Cassava / imperata Rubber agroforest Commercial logging Oil palm plantation ASB results from Jambi, Indonesia

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4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 9 Ave annual return to land ($/ha) Time averaged Carbon stock (tonnes / ha) 0 Upland rice / fallow Natural forest Community-based forest management Cassava / imperata Rubber agroforest Commercial logging Oil palm plantation ASB results from Jambi, Indonesia Easy targets for REDD Difficult targets for REDD

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4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 10 Sites ~ 250 km2 each Reduced Peatland Conversion: another easy target? In 1997/1998 fire episode, peatland fires accounted for : 15% of the burnt area 60% of the smoke/haze 76% of carbon emissions from Indonesian fires

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4/27/2009 Template copyright 2005 www.brainybetty.com 11 Yes: Reduce incentives for Sonor In years with long dry seasons, swamp forest is burnt and planted to rice. Yields of 1.5 – 2 t/ha. Fallow regrowth is mostly gelam (Melaleuca quinque-nervia, Paper bark or Cajuput). Local income: 0.11 $/ t CO2 emitted

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Main Points 20% of emissions due to loss of forests and peatlands must be brought into climate change mechanisms. REDD with sustainable benefits requires both national and sub-national scale approaches. REDD could subsume AFOLU from CDM. Significant and urgent need for support for national measurement and avoided deforestation with sustainable benefits. www.asb.cgiar.org

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