After studying Chapter 13, you should be able to::

After studying Chapter 13, you should be able to: Understand the payback period (PBP) method of project evaluation and selection, including its: (a) calculation; (b) acceptance criterion; (c) advantages and disadvantages; and (d) focus on liquidity rather than profitability. Understand the three major discounted cash flow (DCF) methods of project evaluation and selection – internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and profitability index (PI). Explain the calculation, acceptance criterion, and advantages (over the PBP method) for each of the three major DCF methods. Define, construct, and interpret a graph called an “NPV profile.” Understand why ranking project proposals on the basis of IRR, NPV, and PI methods “may” lead to conflicts in ranking. Describe the situations where ranking projects may be necessary and justify when to use either IRR, NPV, or PI rankings. Understand how “sensitivity analysis” allows us to challenge the single-point input estimates used in traditional capital budgeting analysis. Explain the role and process of project monitoring, including “progress reviews” and “post-completion audits.”

Capital Budgeting Techniques:

Capital Budgeting Techniques Project Evaluation and Selection Potential Difficulties Capital Rationing Project Monitoring Post-Completion Audit

Project Evaluation: Alternative Methods:

Project Evaluation: Alternative Methods Payback Period (PBP) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Net Present Value (NPV) Profitability Index (PI)

Proposed Project Data:

Proposed Project Data Julie Miller is evaluating a new project for her firm, Basket Wonders (BW) . She has determined that the after-tax cash flows for the project will be $10,000; $12,000; $15,000; $10,000; and $7,000, respectively, for each of the Years 1 through 5 . The initial cash outlay will be $40,000 .

Independent Project:

Independent Project Independent -- A project whose acceptance (or rejection) does not prevent the acceptance of other projects under consideration. For this project, assume that it is independent of any other potential projects that Basket Wonders may undertake.

Payback Period (PBP):

Payback Period (PBP) PBP is the period of time required for the cumulative expected cash flows from an investment project to equal the initial cash outflow. 0 1 2 3 4 5 -40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7 K

Payback Solution (#1):

(c) 10 K 22 K 37 K 47 K 54 K Payback Solution (#1) PBP = a + ( b - c ) / d = 3 + ( 40 - 37 ) / 10 = 3 + ( 3 ) / 10 = 3.3 Years 0 1 2 3 4 5 -40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7 K Cumulative Inflows (a) ( -b ) (d)

Payback Solution (#2):

Payback Solution (#2) PBP = 3 + ( 3K ) / 10K = 3.3 Years Note: Take absolute value of last negative cumulative cash flow value. Cumulative Cash Flows -40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7 K 0 1 2 3 4 5 -40 K -30 K -18 K -3 K 7 K 14 K

PBP Acceptance Criterion:

PBP Acceptance Criterion Yes! The firm will receive back the initial cash outlay in less than 3.5 years. [ 3.3 Years < 3.5 Year Max . ] The management of Basket Wonders has set a maximum PBP of 3.5 years for projects of this type. Should this project be accepted?

PBP Strengths and Weaknesses:

PBP Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths : Easy to use and understand Can be used as a measure of liquidity Easier to forecast ST than LT flows Weaknesses : Does not account for TVM Does not consider cash flows beyond the PBP Cutoff period is subjective

Internal Rate of Return (IRR):

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) IRR is the discount rate that equates the present value of the future net cash flows from an investment project with the project’s initial cash outflow. CF 1 CF 2 CF n (1+ IRR ) 1 (1+ IRR ) 2 (1+ IRR ) n + . . . + + ICO =

.10 $41,444 .05 IRR $40,000 $4,603 .15 $36,841 X $1,444 .05 $4,603 IRR Solution (Interpolate) $1,444 X =

IRR Solution (Interpolate):

.10 $41,444 .05 IRR $40,000 $4,603 .15 $36,841 X $1,444 .05 $4,603 IRR Solution (Interpolate) $1,444 X =

IRR Solution (Interpolate):

.10 $41,444 .05 IRR $40,000 $4,603 .15 $36,841 ($1,444)(0.05) $4,603 IRR Solution (Interpolate) $1,444 X X = X = .0157 IRR = .10 + .0157 = .1157 or 11.57%

IRR Acceptance Criterion:

IRR Acceptance Criterion No! The firm will receive 11.57% for each dollar invested in this project at a cost of 13% . [ IRR < Hurdle Rate ] The management of Basket Wonders has determined that the hurdle rate is 13% for projects of this type. Should this project be accepted?

IRRs on the Calculator:

IRRs on the Calculator We will use the cash flow registry to solve the IRR for this problem quickly and accurately!

Actual IRR Solution Using Your Financial Calculator:

Actual IRR Solution Using Your Financial Calculator Steps in the Process Step 1: Press CF key Step 2: Press 2 nd CLR Work keys Step 3: For CF0 Press -40000 Enter keys Step 4: For C01 Press 10000 Enter keys Step 5: For F01 Press 1 Enter keys Step 6: For C02 Press 12000 Enter keys Step 7: For F02 Press 1 Enter keys Step 8: For C03 Press 15000 Enter keys Step 9: For F03 Press 1 Enter keys

Actual IRR Solution Using Your Financial Calculator:

Actual IRR Solution Using Your Financial Calculator Steps in the Process (Part II) Step 10: For C04 Press 10000 Enter keys Step 11: For F04 Press 1 Enter keys Step 12: For C05 Press 7000 Enter keys Step 13: For F05 Press 1 Enter keys Step 14: Press keys Step 15: Press IRR key Step 16: Press CPT key Result: Internal Rate of Return = 11.47%

IRR Strengths and Weaknesses:

IRR Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths : Accounts for TVM Considers all cash flows Less subjectivity Weaknesses : Assumes all cash flows reinvested at the IRR Difficulties with project rankings and Multiple IRRs

Net Present Value (NPV):

Net Present Value (NPV) NPV is the present value of an investment project’s net cash flows minus the project’s initial cash outflow. CF 1 CF 2 CF n (1+ k ) 1 (1+ k ) 2 (1+ k ) n + . . . + + - ICO NPV =

NPV Solution:

Basket Wonders has determined that the appropriate discount rate (k) for this project is 13% . $10,000 $7,000 NPV Solution $10,000 $12,000 $15,000 (1 .13 ) 1 (1 .13 ) 2 (1 .13 ) 3 + + + - $40,000 (1 .13 ) 4 (1 .13 ) 5 NPV = +

NPV Acceptance Criterion No! The NPV is negative . This means that the project is reducing shareholder wealth. [ Reject as NPV < 0 ] The management of Basket Wonders has determined that the required rate is 13% for projects of this type. Should this project be accepted?

NPV on the Calculator:

NPV on the Calculator We will use the cash flow registry to solve the NPV for this problem quickly and accurately! Hint : If you have not cleared the cash flows from your calculator, then you may skip to Step 15.

Actual NPV Solution Using Your Financial Calculator:

Actual NPV Solution Using Your Financial Calculator Steps in the Process Step 1: Press CF key Step 2: Press 2 nd CLR Work keys Step 3: For CF0 Press -40000 Enter keys Step 4: For C01 Press 10000 Enter keys Step 5: For F01 Press 1 Enter keys Step 6: For C02 Press 12000 Enter keys Step 7: For F02 Press 1 Enter keys Step 8: For C03 Press 15000 Enter keys Step 9: For F03 Press 1 Enter keys

Actual NPV Solution Using Your Financial Calculator:

Steps in the Process (Part II) Step 10: For C04 Press 10000 Enter keys Step 11: For F04 Press 1 Enter keys Step 12: For C05 Press 7000 Enter keys Step 13: For F05 Press 1 Enter keys Step 14: Press keys Step 15: Press NPV key Step 16: For I= , Enter 13 Enter keys Step 17: Press CPT key Result: Net Present Value = - $1,424.42 Actual NPV Solution Using Your Financial Calculator

NPV Strengths and Weaknesses:

NPV Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths : Cash flows assumed to be reinvested at the hurdle rate. Accounts for TVM. Considers all cash flows. Weaknesses : May not include managerial options embedded in the project. See Chapter 14.

Net Present Value Profile:

Net Present Value Profile Discount Rate (%) 0 3 6 9 12 15 IRR NPV@13% Sum of CF’s Plot NPV for each discount rate. Three of these points are easy now! Net Present Value $000s 15 10 5 0 -4

Creating NPV Profiles Using the Calculator:

Creating NPV Profiles Using the Calculator Hint : As long as you do not “clear” the cash flows from the registry, simply start at Step 15 and enter a different discount rate. Each resulting NPV will provide a “point” for your NPV Profile !

Profitability Index (PI):

Profitability Index (PI) PI is the ratio of the present value of a project’s future net cash flows to the project’s initial cash outflow. CF 1 CF 2 CF n (1+ k ) 1 (1+ k ) 2 (1+ k ) n + . . . + + ICO PI = PI = 1 + [ NPV / ICO ] << OR >> Method #2: Method #1:

PI Acceptance Criterion:

PI Acceptance Criterion No! The PI is less than 1.00 . This means that the project is not profitable. [ Reject as PI < 1.00 ] PI = $38,572 / $40,000 = .9643 (Method #1, 13-34) Should this project be accepted?

PI Strengths and Weaknesses:

PI Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths : Same as NPV Allows comparison of different scale projects Weaknesses : Same as NPV Provides only relative profitability Potential Ranking Problems

Other Project Relationships Mutually Exclusive -- A project whose acceptance precludes the acceptance of one or more alternative projects. Dependent -- A project whose acceptance depends on the acceptance of one or more other projects.

Potential Problems Under Mutual Exclusivity:

Potential Problems Under Mutual Exclusivity A. Scale of Investment B. Cash-flow Pattern C. Project Life Ranking of project proposals may create contradictory results.

A. Scale Differences:

A. Scale Differences Compare a small (S) and a large (L) project. NET CASH FLOWS Project S Project L END OF YEAR 0 -$100 -$100,000 1 0 0 2 $400 $156,250

Scale Differences:

Scale Differences Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%, and PI@10%. Which project is preferred? Why? Project IRR NPV PI S 100% $ 231 3.31 L 25% $29,132 1.29

B. Cash Flow Pattern:

B. Cash Flow Pattern Let us compare a decreasing cash-flow (D) project and an increasing cash-flow (I) project. NET CASH FLOWS Project D Project I END OF YEAR 0 -$1,200 -$1,200 1 1,000 100 2 500 600 3 100 1,080

Cash Flow Pattern:

D 23% $198 1.17 I 17% $198 1.17 Cash Flow Pattern Calculate the IRR, NPV@10%, and PI@10%. Which project is preferred? Project IRR NPV PI ?

Examine NPV Profiles:

Examine NPV Profiles Discount Rate (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 -200 0 200 400 600 IRR NPV@10% Plot NPV for each project at various discount rates. Net Present Value ($) Project I Project D

Fisher’s Rate of Intersection:

Fisher’s Rate of Intersection Discount Rate ($) 0 5 10 15 20 25 -200 0 200 400 600 Net Present Value ($) At k<10%, I is best! Fisher’s Rate of Intersection At k>10%, D is best!

C. Project Life Differences:

C. Project Life Differences Let us compare a long life (X) project and a short life (Y) project. NET CASH FLOWS Project X Project Y END OF YEAR 0 -$1,000 -$1,000 1 0 2,000 2 0 0 3 3,375 0

Project Life Differences:

X 50% $1,536 2.54 Y 100% $ 818 1.82 Project Life Differences Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%, and PI@10%. Which project is preferred? Why? Project IRR NPV PI ?

Another Way to Look at Things:

Another Way to Look at Things 1. Adjust cash flows to a common terminal year if project “Y” will NOT be replaced. Compound Project Y, Year 1 @10% for 2 years. Year 0 1 2 3 CF -$1,000 $0 $0 $2,420 Results: IRR* = 34.26% NPV = $818 * Lower IRR from adjusted cash-flow stream. X is still Best.

Replacing Projects with Identical Projects:

Replacing Projects with Identical Projects 2. Use Replacement Chain Approach (Appendix B) when project “Y” will be replaced. 0 1 2 3 -$1,000 $2,000 -1,000 $2,000 -1,000 $2,000 -$1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $2,000 Results: IRR = 100% NPV* = $2,238.17 * Higher NPV, but the same IRR . Y is Best .

Capital Rationing:

Capital Rationing Capital Rationing occurs when a constraint (or budget ceiling) is placed on the total size of capital expenditures during a particular period. Example : Julie Miller must determine what investment opportunities to undertake for Basket Wonders (BW) . She is limited to a maximum expenditure of $32,500 only for this capital budgeting period.

Available Projects for BW:

Available Projects for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI A $ 500 18% $ 50 1.10 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 C 5,000 37 5,500 2.10 D 7,500 20 5,000 1.67 E 12,500 26 500 1.04 F 15,000 28 21,000 2.40 G 17,500 19 7,500 1.43 H 25,000 15 6,000 1.24

Choosing by IRRs for BW:

Choosing by IRRs for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI C $ 5,000 37% $ 5,500 2.10 F 15,000 28 21,000 2.40 E 12,500 26 500 1.04 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 Projects C, F, and E have the three largest IRRs . The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $27,000 with a $32,500 outlay .

Choosing by NPVs for BW:

Choosing by NPVs for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI F $15,000 28% $21,000 2.40 G 17,500 19 7,500 1.43 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 Projects F and G have the two largest NPVs . The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $28,500 with a $32,500 outlay .

Choosing by PIs for BW:

Choosing by PIs for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI F $15,000 28% $21,000 2.40 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 C 5,000 37 5,500 2.10 D 7,500 20 5,000 1.67 G 17,500 19 7,500 1.43 Projects F, B, C, and D have the four largest PIs . The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $38,000 with a $32,500 outlay .

Summary of Comparison:

Summary of Comparison Method Projects Accepted Value Added PI F, B, C, and D $38,000 NPV F and G $28,500 IRR C, F, and E $27,000 PI generates the greatest increase in shareholder wealth when a limited capital budget exists for a single period .

Single-Point Estimate and Sensitivity Analysis:

Single-Point Estimate and Sensitivity Analysis Allows us to change from “ single-point ” (i.e., revenue, installation cost, salvage, etc.) estimates to a “ what if ” analysis Utilize a “base-case” to compare the impact of individual variable changes E.g., Change forecasted sales units to see impact on the project’s NPV Sensitivity Analysis : A type of “what-if” uncertainty analysis in which variables or assumptions are changed from a base case in order to determine their impact on a project’s measured results (such as NPV or IRR).

Post-Completion Audit:

Post-Completion Audit Post-completion Audit A formal comparison of the actual costs and benefits of a project with original estimates. Identify any project weaknesses Develop a possible set of corrective actions Provide appropriate feedback Result: Making better future decisions!

Multiple IRR Problem*:

Multiple IRR Problem* Two!! There are as many potential IRRs as there are sign changes. Let us assume the following cash flow pattern for a project for Years 0 to 4: -$100 +$100 +$900 -$1,000 How many potential IRRs could this project have? * Refer to Appendix A

NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs:

NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs Discount Rate (%) 0 40 80 120 160 200 Net Present Value ($000s) Multiple IRRs at k = 12.95% and 191.15% 75 50 25 0 -100

NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs:

NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs Hint : Your calculator will only find ONE IRR – even if there are multiple IRRs. It will give you the lowest IRR. In this case, 12.95%.

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