Communicating Quantitative Information More on election
Significant digits
Sports Records
Homework: Postings, plan project 2.

Election:

Election Can the absentee votes make a difference in the Kelly/Hall contest?
(email sent)
Rough calculation (in Kelly’s favor)
8000 votes to make up a deficit of 4200
H + H + 4200 = 8000 means H=1900 so Hall needs to get more than 1900 to (still) win
Exact calculation
7173 votes to make up a deficit of 4272 H + H + 4272 = 7173 means H = 1450.5

Why?:

Why? Estimate….
Gives you a quick answer
Provides a reasonability check on the next calculation
(mental exercise)

Topic in last year’s news 50th Anniversary of Salk vaccine for polio
killed virus
Sabin vaccine: 'attenuated live virus', more common now (given orally)
Large double-blind test involving New York school children including me!
I (and others) get a new shot a year later because we were given placebos.
Success meant: fewer instances of polio in the condition group than in the placebo (aka control) group
Polio still significant problem in Asia and Africa

Topic in Mt. Kisco news:

Topic in Mt. Kisco news Village manager states that new policy is not to borrow unless expenditure is
over $100,000
capital expense
building and other long-lasting items
This means paying out of current budget (to be covered by current taxes and income)
Claim: this and other policies contributes to the village Moody's bond rating being A1
Comment?

Significant Digits:

Significant Digits Measurements are limited to accuracy.
I am 62 inches tall (probably 61.5)
Ruler has markings. Meters have limits. Timers are limited (though getting better and better: a particular timer has a limit in precision.)
Computations with measurements must/should avoid reporting more digits than appropriate.

Example:

Example Measure several height of several people with ruler with inch and tenth of inch markings
Report: 61.4, 64.0, 72.5, 73.8 (64.0 rather than 64 because you can distinguish between 64.0 and 64.1)
Computed average is 67.925. Report 67.9 because more would imply more precision than you can guarantee.

Procedures:

Procedures Set of rules for reporting, including report computed answer with no more significant digits than the least number in the operands
Must distinguish between measured quantities and 'pure numbers'—numbers with unlimited precision
Important to not round off too early: keep intermediate results at greater precision, do computation, and then round off.
Good sources found using google.

Exercise:

Exercise What should be reported as average for
123.5 47.23
64.548

Iraqi Dead May Total 600,000, Study Says:

Iraqi Dead May Total 600,000, Study Says 'It is the second study by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. It uses samples of casualties from Iraqi households to extrapolate an overall figure of 601,027 Iraqis dead from violence between March 2003 and July 2006.'
'But it is an estimate and not a precise count, and researchers acknowledged a margin of error that ranged from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths.'
Note: The headline: 'Study estimates a minimum of 400,000 deaths' would have been newsworthy Good headline by NYTimes

Jargon:

Jargon Nature of scales:
interval (measured, meaning to differences)
ordered
category (no order)
Tendency to report amounts to certain granularity: whole numbers, round off to 5 or 10, etc.

100m Men's World Record:

100m Men's World Record Traditionally 'the world's fastest…'
Many studies
http://condellpark.com/kd/sprintlogistic.htm

Changing precision:

Changing precision The precision possible in testing has improved from hand-held clocks to sensors for start and finish.
False start determination
False start has official definition: within some set amount of starting gun
Wind measurements for road races

Source:

Source Found using google: sports records
100mm Sprinting: Is there a limit:
http://condellpark.com/kd/sprintlogistic.htm

Slide16:

Posting opportunty:

Posting opportunty New record?

Slide18:

Best (linear) fit:

Best (linear) fit Formal definition of best linear fit:
Least squares:
Take distance from each actual point to line and square it. Add up. The line that minimizes this total is the best fit.

Reality check:

Reality check Even though the best straight line through the points predicts a time of zero….that is not possible.
So, is there another way to frame the problem
Diversion: notion of limit (sometimes called asymptote)

Limit:

Limit (continuous) functions:
function f(x) tends (trends) to limit L as x goes to x0
formal definition: Specify how close you want function to get to L (say e distance), can find a value d such that if x is within d of xo, the distance of f(x) from L will be less than e.
(discrete) sequences, say years
function f(N) tends to limit L as N gets higher
formal definition: specify how close you want function to get to L (say e distance), can find a value N' such that if Nandgt;N', then the distance of f(N) from L is less than e
Usually given using Greek letters epsilon and delta and with absolute values.

Best logistic fit:

Best logistic fit Assume there is limit
Mathematical theory suggests that the logistic function is simplest curve
(logistic function has exponential term in denominator)

Slide23:

Reza D. Noubary (2005) "A Procedure for Prediction of Sports Records", Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports: Vol. 1: No. 1, Article 4. http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol1/iss1/4:

Reza D. Noubary (2005) 'A Procedure for Prediction of Sports Records', Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports: Vol. 1: No. 1, Article 4. http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol1/iss1/4

Factors (all sports):

Factors (all sports) What can change trend?
Policies:
treatment of wind
equipment (shoes, track)
e.g., pole vaulting
techniques
back stroke swimming
rules
traveling call in basketball
drugs (new inventions) and drug testing (absence of drugs)
?
These can put records on a different trend line/curve

Factors in sports:

Factors in sports Basic qualities
Technology
Technique
Tactics
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Spor/SporLola.htm

Examples:

Examples Technology, technique, tactic???
Back stroke start
Pacing in long distance racing
backwards technique in jump
shoes, skiis, skates
fiber glass poles
swim suits
traditional versus skating cross-country skiing
This led to definition of two different events
??

Examples:

Examples basketball
policy issue: 'traveling' rule not enforced as rigorously
baseball home runs
dependent on size of field
pitcher skill
policy issue: tactics used by pitchers (that is, can choose to walk anyone)

Records:

Records Changes in policies, technology, technique, tactics all put
'records on a different curve'

Sports articles:

Sports articles Teaching Statistics with Sports Examples http://ite.pubs.informs.org/Vol5No1/KvamSokol/
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Sports_records_and_statistics
Math Forum http://mathforum.org/library/topics/sports/?keyid=17195291andamp;start_at=51andamp;num_to_see=50
Chance project (do a search on terms) http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/

Preview:

Preview Project II
Post proposal and get approval!
Choice:
pick an actual newspaper/magazine and re-write it to be clearer. Include 1-3 'headlines' summarizing major points. Use diagrams, charts as appropriate.
pick topic/lesson from the class and write explanation(s) as newspaper story or regular essay. Use diagrams, charts as appropriate. Make up 'headlines' stating major points.

Requirements:

Requirements Paper OR
Formal presentation
Charts using PowerPoint or something else
(Turn in compressed version, such as the 6 to a page PowerPoint)

Requirements:

Requirements References must be in standard format
Web addresses must contain: author (if available), organization, date given AND date viewed
Use bold, italics, capital letters to distinguish products, names, jargon, etc.
Use numerals for numbers andgt; 3
Use tables when you want reader to compare sets of numbers
PROOFREAD: use Spell andamp; grammar check AND re-read your own matter
its, it's
where, were
there, their, they're
your, you're
Plan presentation
plan way(s) to involve audience

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