Category: Entertainment

Presentation Description

No description available.


Presentation Transcript

slide 1:

Prediction Market - Xetra Options Prediction markets also called markets which are predictive information markets decision markets idea futures event derivatives and virtual markets are exchange traded markets bring something into existence for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can depict what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is and a prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100 and it is a binary option that will expire at the price of 0 or 100.Research has suggested that prediction markets are at least as exact as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.A combinatorial prediction market is a type of forecasting market where participants can make bets on combinations of outcomes and the advantage of making bets on combinations of outcomes is that conditional facts provided can be better incorporated into the market price. One difficult situation of combinatorial prediction markets is that the number of achieved combinatorial trades scales exponentially with the number of normal trades. These exponentially large data structures can be very large for a computer to keep track of so there have been efforts to create algorithms and rules to make the data more tractable.Some kinds of prediction markets may create controversial incentives and a market predicting the end of a world leader might be quite useful for those whose activities are strongly belongs to this leaders policies but it also can turn into an assassination market. Prediction markets suffer from the exact types of inaccuracy as other kinds of market i.e. liquidity or other factors not intended to be carefully considered are taken into account as risk factors by the persons taking part in the market distorting the market probabilities and prediction markets may also be subject to speculative bubbles.

authorStream Live Help