CHANGING NATURE OF WARTOPIC 2: CHANGING NATURE OF WAR TOPIC 2


“WAR IS POLITICS BY OTHER MEANS”KARL von CLAUSEWITZ : “WAR IS POLITICS BY OTHER MEANS” KARL von CLAUSEWITZ


PREVENTING WARS BETWEEN STATES : PREVENTING WARS BETWEEN STATES ANARCHY SOVEREIGNTY AGGRESSION DETERENCE ALLIANCE BALANCE OF POWER NUCLEAR WEAPONS


WARS KILL: WARS KILL 90% OF WAR DEAD IN 1900 WERE SOLDIERS WHO WON OR LOST WARS. CIVILIANS KILLED (COLLATORAL DAMAGE) ABOUT 10% 90% OF WAR DEAD IN TODAY’s ARMED CONFLICTS ARE CIVILIANS.


WORLD WARS : WORLD WARS WORLD WAR I -1914-1918 GERMANY vs FRANCE, BRITAIN, OTHERS USA SIDES WITH FRANCE/BRITAIN RUSSIA IN CIVIL WAR COLONIAL TERRITORIES LEAGUE OF NATIONS WORLD WAR II – 1939-1945 GERMANY & JAPAN vs BRITAIN, RUSSIA, US CHINA IN CIVIL WAR UNITED NATIONS


COLD WAR 1945 -1990: COLD WAR 1945 -1990 SOURCES OF THE CONFLICT WAR ALLIANCE COLLAPSES BI-POLAR GLOBAL ORDER ARISES NUCLEAR DETERENCE US DOCTRINE SOVIET DOCTRINE (NO FIRST USE) CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS 1962 GLOBAL COMPETITION FOR CLIENTS SOVEREIGNTY SACRIFICED FOR ALLIES NATIONAL LIBERATION AND CIVIL WARS COLD WAR BECOMES A BAD COLD


END OF THE COLD WAR 11/9 (1989): END OF THE COLD WAR 11/9 (1989) MOST FAR-REACHING SUDDEN AND PEACEFUL CHANGE OF GLOBAL ORDER IN HISTORY COLLAPSE OF WORLD’S LAST EMPIRE REUNIFICATION OF GERMANY EXPANSION OF NATO AFFIRMATION OF MARKET ECONOMICS (THINK CHINA AND INDIA) ENDING OF THIRD WORLD CONFLICTS (?) END OF APARTHEID


Slide9: WORLD WAR III?


PREVENTING DEADLY CONFLICTS WITHIN STATES: PREVENTING DEADLY CONFLICTS WITHIN STATES SHOULD PEOPLE BE ALLOWED TO SOLVE OWN PROBLEMS? IF NOT, WHO DOES WORK? UN US COWS NEED FOR NEW NORMS, INSTITUTIONS AND POLITICAL WILL TO PREVENT/RESOLVE DEADLY CONFLICT WITHIN STATES?


CIVIL WARS : CIVIL WARS POST-COLD WAR PROLIFERATION AFRICA’S DIRTY THIRTY HISTORY LESSONS 2 ½ CASES US CIVIL WAR 1860-65 NIGERIAN CIVIL WAR 1967-70 SOUTH AFRICA? MBEKI’s SPEECH TO PARLIAMENT – INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF 11 COUNTRIES KOFFI ANNAN’S HIGH LEVEL PANEL 2005 GENERAL ASSEMBLY DEBATE ON UN REFORM


WAR ON TERROR: WAR ON TERROR IMPORTANCE OF 911 WHERE IT HAPPENED HOW IT HAPPENED AGAINST WHOM (NOT # KILLED!) THIRD SHOCK ATTACK AGAINST US 1812 BRITISH BURN WASHINGTON 1941 JAPANESE BOMB PEARL HARBOUR EACH IMPACTS ON US ROLE IN WORLD


WHO IS A TERRORIST?: WHO IS A TERRORIST? THE UN HIGH-LEVEL PANEL REFLECTS NEW GLOBAL CONSENSUS “FREEDOM FIGHTER” REFLECTS CAUSE “TERROR” ONLY A MEANS TODAY’S EXAMPLES IRAQ ISRAEL/PALESTINE MADRID? OTHERS


WHO IS AN INSURGENT?TERRORIST? REVOLUTIONARY?: WHO IS AN INSURGENT? TERRORIST? REVOLUTIONARY? WHICH IRAQIS? WHICH PALESTINIANS? OSAMA bin LADEN? PRO-DEMOCRACY FORCES? RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISTS? ETHNIC NATIONALISTS vs. CIVIL NATIONALISTS? SEPARATION OF CHURCH (MOSQUE) AND STATE KEY TO DEMOCRATIC PEACE?


US NEW NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY - 2002: US NEW NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY - 2002 3 PILLARS PREMPTIVE ACTION COOPERATION WITH MAJOR POWERS PROMOTING DEMOCRACY HOW THESE ARE SUPPOSED TO INTERACT TO ENSURE US SECURITY RECORD SO FAR? QUESTION OF LEGITMACY (POWER)


VIEW FROM SOUTH AFRICA: VIEW FROM SOUTH AFRICA OPPOSITION TO THE US? AFGHANISTAN IRAQ MIDDLE EAST IN AFRICA COOPERATION WITH THE WoT? WORKING WITH OTHERS TO INFLUENCE US BEHAVIOR? MBEKI – BUSH - PROSPECTS


REVIEW OF CONCEPTS: REVIEW OF CONCEPTS RIGHT OF SELF DEFENSE PREEMPTION - INTERVENTION PREVENTION – INTERVENTION INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM COALITIONS OF THE WILLING (COWS) HEGEMONY TREATY NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION SOFT POWER AND HARD POWER


“INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY”TOPIC 3: “INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY” TOPIC 3 IS THERE AN “INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY” DESPITE ANARCHY? HOW UNITED IS THE UN? CAN THE UN BE REFORMED? SHOULD HUMAN SECURITY BECOME A HIGHER CONCERN FOR THE UN THAN STATE (SOVEREIGN) SECURITY?


UN SYSTEM – 3 PILLARS: UN SYSTEM – 3 PILLARS UN POLITICAL ORGANS GENERAL ASSEMBLY SECURITY COUNCIL INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WORLD BANK (IBRD) INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF) UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS


UN SECURITY COUNCIL REFORM : UN SECURITY COUNCIL REFORM


COURSE READINGS : COURSE READINGS TOPIC 1 ROSKIN & BERRY – COURSE PACK GOLDSTEIN CHAP 1 NEL & McGOWAN CHAP 1 TOPIC 2 READINGS IN COURSE PACK NYE FUKUYAMA CLAPHAM GADDIS GOLDSTEIN PART 1 “INTERNATIONAL SECURITY”


READINGS TOPIC 3: READINGS TOPIC 3 COURSE PACK SLAUGHTER “A NEW WORLD ORDER” IGNATIEFF – “THE LESSER EVIL” UN REFORM REPORT