Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

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Presented by Drs Keith Wiebe, Daniel Mason-D'Croz and Nhuong Van Tran. WorldFish hosted a two-week IMPACT Model training course by IFPRI from April 28th to May 9th 2014 . The course is an activity of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Theme of the CRP on Policies Institutes and Markets. This seminar discusses the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, with insights from IFPRI and WorldFish.

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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight:

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight WorldFish, Penang 29 April 2014

Objectives:

Objectives Enhance a suite of biophysical and economic models Strengthen capacity and build a community of practice for ex ante impact assessment Assess a range of plausible global futures, including potential returns to promising technologies and investments

Global Futures… and Strategic Foresight:

Global Futures… and Strategic Foresight IFPRI CIMMYT CIAT CIP IITA ILRI ICRAF ICARDA IWMI ICRISAT WorldFish IRRI

PowerPoint Presentation:

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014) Modeling climate impacts on agriculture

AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050:

AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050 Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

IMPACT – A Network of Models:

IMPACT – A Network of Models Current Models Trade Model Crop Production Livestock Production Processed Good Production Water Models Nutrition and Food Security Models Welfare and Cost-Benefit Model Food Demand Model Future Models Fish - Aquaculture Improved Livestock model Biofuel Model 6

Production, Demand, and Prices:

Production, Demand, and Prices 7

IMPACT Geography:

IMPACT Geography

Production and Demand:

Production and Demand 56 commodities Production Trade Demand Demand is disaggregated by country and potentially by type of consumer (i.e. urban-rural, rich-poor) 9

Activities and Commodities – An Ag Value Chain:

Activities and Commodities – An Ag V alue Chain 10 Activity Soybean Farm ( jsoyb ) Demands land, fertilizer, labor Activity Output Soybean Commodity ( csoyb ) Activity Soybean Processing ( jsbol ) Demands soybeans ( csoyb ) at market price Processed Commodities Soybean Oil ( csbol ) Soybean Meal ( csbml )

WorldFish’s engagement in PIM’s foresight: progress:

WorldFish’s engagement in PIM’s foresight: progress

2013 work:

2013 work Review of promising/new aquaculture technologies Contribute to environmental characterization of selected aquaculture technologies using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Integrating environmental analysis into foresight research

Promising/new aquaculture technologies:

Promising/new aquaculture technologies Integration technologies/approach IAA, rice-fish, horticulture-fish-livestock, aquaculture based fisheries Management system improvements/standardization BMPs, certification standards, environment, disease, etc Genetics improvement technologies Tilapia, carps, salmon, shrimp, catfish Landscape aquaculture approach (Ecosystem based) Integrate aquaculture into broader systems to maintain system health and productivity

Promising/new aquaculture technologies:

Promising/new aquaculture technologies Feed and feeding technologies From natural to artificial homemade to pellet feed Modern polyculture, integrated multi trophic aquaculture (IMATA) Recirculation aquaculture system technologies (RAS) Biofloc aquaculture technologies Modern inorganic fertilizer technologies

Promising/new aquaculture technologies:

Promising/new aquaculture technologies Cage culture technologies Open ocean aquaculture technologies Seaweed, aquatic plant farming technologies Aquaponic technologies Catfish aquaculture technologies Domestication and breeding technologies

Challenges for assessing aquaculture technologies:

Challenges for assessing aquaculture technologies Great diversity of aquaculture technologies By commodity groups, by production systems, by production environment Technologies range from simple/rudimentary to complex Technology/approach/paradigm Young and dynamics, industry structures are not stable, not fully understood Capturing potential “technology” gains (productivity, efficiency, cost, energy, etc) are challenging

Work in 2014:

Work in 2014 Adopt narrative scenarios approaches Applying new IMPACT model Applying “ASIAFISH”

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