Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security - an update

Views:
 
     
 

Presentation Description

Guest seminar presented by Dr Kevin Coffey of Columbia University, at WorldFish HQ, 14th September, 2012.

Comments

Presentation Transcript

PowerPoint Presentation:

Kevin Coffey Science Officer

PowerPoint Presentation:

Challenge 1: Food security

PowerPoint Presentation:

Challenge 2: Adaptation

Climate change will add greatly to price increases…:

% price increase 2010-2050 Climate change will add greatly to price increases… Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS Maize Rice Wheat

PowerPoint Presentation:

Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint

PowerPoint Presentation:

Program Design

PowerPoint Presentation:

CCAFS: the partnership

PowerPoint Presentation:

Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies , and of climate issues in agricultural policies , at all levels. CCAFS objectives

PowerPoint Presentation:

The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems Trade-offs and Synergies 4. Integration for Decision Making Linking Knowledge with Action Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

PowerPoint Presentation:

Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices The CGIAR Research Centers Lead center - CIAT

PowerPoint Presentation:

Place-based field work Indo-Gangetic Plains : Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal Regional director: Pramod Aggarwal East Africa : Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia Regional director: James Kinyangi West Africa : Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger Regional director: Robert Zougmor é

PowerPoint Presentation:

Director: Bruce Campbell Head of Research : Sonja Vermeulen Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann Program Manager : Misha Wolsgaard-Iversen Events & Program Support Consultant: Ratih Septivita Communications Consultant : Vanessa Meadu CCAFS Director and Coordinating Unit Program & Communications Support The CCAFS Team: Who’s coordinating the effort?

PowerPoint Presentation:

T1: Adaptation to Progressive CC Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis & Andy Challinor Science Officer: Osana Bonilla- Findji T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme Leader: Jim Hansen Science Officer: Kevin Coffey T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Theme Leader: Lini Wollenberg Science Officer: Michael Misiko T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leaders: Phil Thornton, Gerry Nelson, Patti Kristjanson Science Officers: Wiebke Foerch, Christina Sison, Moushumi Chaudhury The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the effort?

PowerPoint Presentation:

The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the effort? Indo-Gangetic Plains : Pramod Aggarwal East Africa : James Kinyangi West Africa : Robert Zougmor é

PowerPoint Presentation:

Progressive Adaptation THE VISION To adapt farming systems, we need to: Close the yield gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase agricultural potential Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

PowerPoint Presentation:

Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

PowerPoint Presentation:

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 1.1 Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites) Agricultural knowledge transfer Analysis of enabling policies and instit . mechanisms Adapted farming systems 1.2 Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies Regional fora to discuss and set priorities Breeding strategies for climate stresses 1.3 Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation On-farm use of diversity to adapt Policies of access for benefit sharing Species and genetic diversity

PowerPoint Presentation:

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?

PowerPoint Presentation:

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture What CCAFS output?

PowerPoint Presentation:

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?

PowerPoint Presentation:

Risk Management THE VISION Climate-related risk impedes development , leading to chronic poverty and dependency Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations .

Climate Risk Management:

Climate Risk Management Managing Near-term Climate Vulnerability (1 week to 2 years) Use of advanced weather and climate information Ex-post and Ex-anti risk management Multiple Scales: Household, Community, District, National, Regional, and Global

The Problem:

The Problem CRISIS HARDSHIP FORFEITED OPPORTUNITY Climate-related risk impedes development Downside risk Opportunity cost Affects farmers, markets, etc. Source of chronic poverty, vulnerability Increasing climate variability anticipated

PowerPoint Presentation:

Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods ( Farm level ) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ( Food system level ) Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services Managing Climate Risk · 2

PowerPoint Presentation:

Managing Climate Risk · 2 2.1 Designed diversification Index-based risk transfer Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications Participatory action research Building resilient livelihoods 2.2 Manage price volatility via trade and storage Improved early warning systems Coordin . platform Food safety nets Post-crisis recovery Food delivery, trade, and crisis response 2.3 info. Historical data reconstruction Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases services Institutional arrangements Communication processes Capacity bldg for providers Climate information and services

PowerPoint Presentation:

Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk What CCAFS outputs? Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index avoids the high cost of verifying losses and overcomes the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks. Why is it useful?

PowerPoint Presentation:

Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Improving Delivery of Seasonal Forecasts Knowledge and tools for effective delivery of seasonal forecasts Increased understanding of the ways in which farmers incorporate climate information into decision making What CCAFS outputs? By teaching farmers how to interpret and use tailored probabilistic seasonal forecasts, we can build upon indigenous risk management strategies as well as the innovative capacity of farmers to respond to climate variation. We also learn more about how new technologies can add value to farmers’ decision making processes. Why is it useful?

PowerPoint Presentation:

Food System and Climate Vulnerability· 1 >> Spotlight on: Measuring the Value of Advanced Information Economic Analysis of the value of advanced information for relief community Presentation of results to key donors as evidence for action based on prediction What CCAFS outputs? In Ethiopia, there is great value in seasonal forecasts for precipitation based on the forecast skill and the strong relationship between rainfall and food security. Using improved forecasts and promoting their use in decision-making can have a major impact on the effectiveness and cost of food security interventions Why is it useful?

PowerPoint Presentation:

Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO What CCAFS outputs? Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc Why is it useful?

Climate Information Services: Groundwork for Crop Forecasting:

Climate Information Services: Groundwork for Crop Forecasting Met data reconstruction AGRHYMET, Ethiopia, U. Reading, IRI, Princeton U. Remote sensing data assimilation NASA-JPL, IRI Review of existing tools Washington State STATION BLENDED SATELLITE

PowerPoint Presentation:

Pro-poor Mitigation VISION Short-term : Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term : Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation

PowerPoint Presentation:

Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements Objective Three : Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

PowerPoint Presentation:

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 3.1 Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation Assess impacts of current policies Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt Low-carbon development pathways 3.2 Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer ) Assess potential non-market options Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women Incentives and instit. arrangements 3.3 Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV. Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles. On-farm mitigation options

PowerPoint Presentation:

Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa What CCAFS outputs? Direct link between research and action Strong demand from carbon project managers Why is it useful? Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 >> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research

PowerPoint Presentation:

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 >> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural emissions Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts. What CCAFS outputs? Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground. Why is it useful?

PowerPoint Presentation:

Integration VISION Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework , grounded in the policy context Synthesize lessons learned Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions Build partners’ capacity

PowerPoint Presentation:

T2 : Risk Management T3 : Pro-poor Mitigation Rural Livelihoods Environment Food Security Integration for Decision Making 4.3 POLICY 4.1 ENGAGEMENT

PowerPoint Presentation:

Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis Integration for Decision Making · 4

PowerPoint Presentation:

Integration for Decision Making · 4 4.1 Regional scenarios Vulnerability assessments Approaches to decision making informed by good science Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups Linking knowledge with action 4.2 Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders Data and tools for analysis and planning 4.3 Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions Analyze likely effects of scientific adap . and mitig . options, national policies Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups Frameworks for policy analysis

PowerPoint Presentation:

Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households What CCAFS outputs? Sites for participatory action research Guidance for research foci Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts Why is it useful? Integration for Decision Making · 4 >> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey

PowerPoint Presentation:

A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe What CCAFS outputs? To aid planning & drive agricultural impact models to inform resource allocation Why is it useful? http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ >> Spotlight on: Integration for Decision Making · 4 MarkSim ™

PowerPoint Presentation:

Thank you . Stay Connected Website: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Blog: www.ccafs.cgiar.org/blog Sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins at our website. Follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

authorStream Live Help