Shipping & Energy Dinner27. March 2007: Shipping & Energy Dinner 27. March 2007 Guest speaker: Bjorn Sjaastad, CEO Frontline Sponsored by:
Slide2: CEO Bjørn Sjaastad March 27, 2007 Norwegian-British
Chamber of Commerce
Slide3: THIS PRESENTATION AND ITS ENCLOSURES AND APPENDICES (HEREINAFTER JOINTLY REFERRED TO AS THE “PRESENTATION” HAS BEEN PREPARED BY FRONTLINE LTD. (“FRONTLINE” or THE ”COMPANY”) EXCLUSIVELY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES. THIS PRESENTATION HAS NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR REGISTERED WITH ANY PUBLIC AUTHORITY OR STOCK EXCHANGE. RECIPIENTS OF THIS PRESENTATION MAY NOT REPRODUCE, REDISTRIBUTE OR PASS ON, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, THE PRESENTATION TO ANY OTHER PERSON.
THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS PRESENTATION AND THE OFFERING, SUBSCRIPTION, PURCHASE OR SALE OF SECURITIES ISSUED BY THE COMPANY IN CERTAIN JURISDICTIONS IS RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS INTO WHOSE POSSESSION THIS PRESENTATION MAY COME ARE REQUIRED BY THE COMPANY TO INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND TO COMPLY WITH ALL APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS IN FORCE IN ANY JURISDICTION IN OR FROM WHICH IT INVESTS OR RECEIVES OR POSSESSES THIS PRESENTATION AND MUST OBTAIN ANY CONSENT, APPROVAL OR PERMISSION REQUIRED UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS IN FORCE IN SUCH JURISDICTION, AND THE COMPANY SHALL NOT HAVE ANY RESPONSIBILITY OR LIABILITY FOR THESE OBLIGATIONS. IN PARTICULAR, NEITHER THIS PRESENTATION NOR ANY COPY OF IT MAY BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED OR DISTRIBUTED, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, INTO CANADA OR JAPAN.
THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY SECURITIES IN ANY JURISDICTION TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT IS UNLAWFUL TO MAKE SUCH AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN SUCH JURISDICTION.
IN RELATION TO THE UNITED STATES AND U.S. PERSONS, THIS PRESENTATION IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND IS BEING FURNISHED SOLELY IN RELIANCE ON APPLICABLE EXEMPTIONS FROM THE REGISTRATION REQIUREMENTS UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED. THE SHARES OF MDL HAVE NOT AND WILL NOT BE REGISTERED UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OR ANY STATE SECURITIES LAWS, AND MAY NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, OR TO OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OR BENEFIT OF U.S. PERSONS, UNLESS AN EXEMPTION FROM THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS OF THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT IS AVAILABLE. ACCORDINGLY, ANY OFFER OR SALE OF SHARES IN MDL WILL ONLY BE OFFERED OR SOLD (I) WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, OR TO OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OR BENEFIT OF U.S. PERSONS, ONLY TO QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS (”QIBs”) IN PRIVATE PLACEMENT TRANSACTIONS NOT INVOLVING A PUBLIC OFFERING AND (II) OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES IN OFFSHORE TRANSACTIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH REGULATION S. ANY PURCHASER OF SHARES IN THE UNITED STATES, OR TO OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OF U.S. PERSONS, WILL BE DEEMED TO HAVE MADE CERTAIN REPRESENTATIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION THAT THE PURCHASER IS A QIB.
NONE OF THE COMPANY’S SHARES HAS BEEN OR WILL BE QUALIFIED FOR SALE UNDER THE SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY PROVINCE OR TERRITORY OF CANADA. THE COMPANY’S SHARES ARE NOT BEING OFFERED AND MAY NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN CANADA OR TO OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OF ANY RESIDENT OF CANADA IN CONTRAVENTION OF THE SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY PROVINCE OR TERRITORY THEREOF.
THIS PRESENTATION INCLUDES “FORWARD-LOOKING” STATEMENTS (DEFINED IN SECTION 27A OF THE US SECURITIES ACT AND SECTION 21E OF THE US EXCHANGE ACT AS ALL STATEMENTS OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS) INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THOSE REGARDING THE COMPANY’S FINANCIAL POSITION, BUSINESS STRATEGY, PLANS AND OBJECTIVES FOR FUTURE OPERATIONS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER FACTORS WHICH MAY CAUSE THE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE COMPANY, OR, AS THE CASE MAY BE, THE INDUSTRY, TO MATERIALLY DIFFER FROM ANY FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE COMPANY’S PRESENT AND FUTURE BUSINESS STRATEGIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE COMPANY WILL OPERATE. AMONG THE IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE THE COMPANY’S ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS TO MATERIALLY DIFFER FROM THOSE IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE, AMONG OTHERS, THE COMPETITIVE NATURE OF THE MARKETS, TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS, GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS, CHANGES IN ECONOMICAL CONDITIONS OR POLITICAL EVENTS.
Disclaimer
Frontline – Key Strategic Issues: Frontline – Key Strategic Issues Tanker business for crude oil
Concentration and focus – “keep it simple”
Scale – threshold / critical mass
taken seriously by charterers
trading patterns / flexibility / COAs
low cost operator ( purchasing )
Taken seriously in investor market ( > USD 1 bill. )
Shareholder / investor oriented – Create values
high dividend payout ratio
high liquidity / volumes
timely and accurate information
Frontline – Key Strategic Issues cont.: Frontline – Key Strategic Issues cont. Professional, business oriented and dedicated organisation
extensive use of outsourcing
HQ: chartering, projects, finance and accounting
close follow-up of third-party service providers:
ship management
post fixture
Aggressive and opportunistic investment strategy
Solid financial base
low break even rates
access to funding
return on equity
Frontline History : Frontline History Stock Listings
1997 Norway
1998 London (OTC)
2001 NYSE
Acquisitions / Mergers:
1996 Frontline AB (7 vessels)
1998 LOF (3 vessels)
1999 ICB (8 vessels)
2000 Golden Ocean (23 vessels)
Purchase of vessels 1996 – 2007
N/Bs: 25 vessels
2nd hand: 30 vessels
Spin-offs: Spin-offs Ship Finance International Limited 2003 – 2007
Golden Ocean Group Limited 2004 – 2005
Sealift Ltd. 2007
Sea Production Limited 2007
Frontline Fleet: Frontline Fleet Introduction Most of the vessels are fixed on t/c for the remainder of the committed period
- 3 SS Suezmaxes sold to Sealift and chartered back on short-term BB until conversion
- Front Transporter sold with delivery Q1
Corporate structure: Corporate structure Introduction FLEET
Newbuildings: Newbuildings
Financial Highlights: Financial Highlights Fourth Quarter 2006
Major transactions 2006/2007 : Major transactions 2006/2007 Sale of Front Beijing, Front Tobago, Front Vanadis, Front Transporter
Newbuilding contracts
Delivery of Front Shanghai
Exercise and resale of two VLCC options
Sealift Ltd.
Sea Production Limited
Income on time charter basis: Income on time charter basis Financial Review Imarex forward curve as of 23.02.07
for the period
Q1 2007- Q2 2008
Cash breakeven rates ($/day): Cash breakeven rates ($/day) Financial Review
Company overview: Company overview
Sea Production Ltd.
(Bermuda)
FPSO
Front Puffin
(Under conversion)
Contract with AED Oil Ltd
for Puffin field
(2 yrs + 4 x 1yr opt.)
1st oil expected 7/07
FPSO Crystal Ocean
(Operating)
On bareboat charter to Anzon, Australia Presently at
Basker Manta field in
the Bass Strait (3 yrs + 2 x 1 yr opt)
- world wide trading M/V
Sea Cat
Aframax tanker
Spot market
Commercial management and technical supervision
by Frontline M/V
Sea Jaguar
Aframax tanker
Spot market
Commercial management and technical supervision
by Frontline
Sea Production Mgmt
Mgmt agr. Floated and OTC Listed February 2007
Investment/funding
USDm 415 acquisition
Front Puffin and management company USDm 210,
Crystal Ocean USDm 90,
Sea Cat and Sea Jaguar USDm 36 and
Working capital USDm 79
To be financed with:
Equity USDm 180
1. pri. bank debt USDm 105
2. pri. Bond USDm 130
Frontline 28% / Keppel 5% / Investors 67%
Company overview: Company overview
Floated and OTC listed in January 2007
Investment / funding
USDm 476 acquisition
HL vessels USDm 100
Suezmax vessels USDm 38
To be financed with:
Equity USDm 180
1. pri. bank debt USDm 120
2. pri. Bond USDm 110
Seller credit USDm 80
Sealift Ltd.
(Bermuda) Sealift
Sunda
Under conversion
Delivery Apr 07 Sealift
Target
BB USD 15,000/day to Frontline to May 07
Delivery Sep 07 Sealift
Traveller
BB USD 15,000/day to Frontline to Aug 07
Delivery Jan 08 Sealift
Comor
BB USD 15,000/day to Frontline to Nov 07
Delivery May 08 Sealift
Granite
Commercial & technical mgt agreement with FRO Option for HL conversion
Sep 08E Sealift
Marble
Commercial & technical mgt agreement with FRO
Option for HL conversion
Jan 09E
Sealift Management BV
Mgmt agr*) *) Temporary management agreement with Frontline Management Suezmax sister vessels Frontline 33% Investors 67%
Key figures : Key figures Financial Cash dividend paid in total => USD 39.05 per share
Spin off paid in total => USD 20.44 per share
Share price 22.03.2007 => USD 35,10 Cash dividend 2006 => USD 7.55 per share
Spin off SFL => USD 2.79 based on share prices of USD 26 – 23.02.2007
Return on Equity: Return on Equity
The Frontline Share: The Frontline Share Share price: $35.10 as of date 22/03/07
Shares outstanding: 74,825,169
Trading volume (22/03/07): 1,034,600 shares
No. shareholders: 3.268
Market cap. $2,626 million
Enterprise value: $4,900 million
EBITDA 2006: $866 million
EPS 2006: $6.90
P/E: 5.09
EV/EBITDA: 5.66
Cash Yield (declared): 21.51% Source: Oslo Stock Exchange Graph to be included
Entering the doldrums or steering clear ?: Entering the doldrums or steering clear ? The Market Q4 relatively weak in both segments
Stable fleet growth for Suezmaxes in 06 (y/y)
Lower fleet growth for VLCCs in 06 (y/y)
External factors
Stock fluctuations
Oil price movements
Warm weather
Reduced delays
Absence of Hurricanes
Geopolitical tension reduced
Official OPEC cuts
Oil demand at 85.5 mbd in 4Q06 (1.5% y/y)
Stable demand increase expected $/day $/day Source: Clarkson, IEA Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4
VLCC: VLCC Existing fleet
1 VLCC delivered in Jan 2007
160 SH vs 320 DH Orderbook
Total orderbook at 162 VLCCs
2 VLCCs ordered in Jan 2007 Fleet Update 34% of
Existing Source: Fearnleys (Bulk Fleet Update, 31 Jan 2007)
Suezmax: Suezmax Existing fleet
6 Suezmaxes delivered in Jan 2007
70 SH vs 280 DH Orderbook
Total orderbook at 127 Suezmaxes
8 Suezmaxes ordered in Jan 2007 36% of
Existing Source: Fearnleys (Bulk Fleet Update, 31 Jan 2007) Fleet Update
Trading within the $50-60/bbl price band: Trading within the $50-60/bbl price band Slightly improved sentiment
OPEC Production Cuts in November 2006 and February 2007 Oil Market
Crude Oil Inventory: Crude Oil Inventory Falling – but still at high levels Source: IEA Oil Market Strategic oil reserves:
China
USA
Demand growth adjusted up: Demand growth adjusted up World Oil Demand
Annual Growth Source: IEA, Energy Intelligence, Fearnleys Oil Market Growth to average 2.0% in 2006 – 2011
Strong demand growth in Asia and ME
Stable in remaining regions
OECD countries remain the largest consumer as a group
US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs)
2.7% growth in tonn-miles in 2007 (3.0% in 2006)
Robust world economy: Robust world economy Mild deceleration in the United States
Europe and Asia will resist US slowdown well
Temporary inflation downturn due to lower oil prices
Interest rates
Fed is expected to cut in the autumn
ECB expected to continue its rate hikes International Economy Source: OECD, SEB GDP
Annual Growth
Outlook: Outlook Macro
Healthy macroeconomic environment despite GPD growth cooling off
Large orderbook, but 2007 not that bad
Single hull phase out
Uncertainty on the supply side of oil / Further OPEC cuts unlikely
Political Stability
Supply side major determinant for rates and values
Frontline
Spin-offs / one off profits
Single hull exposure
Orderbook
Breakeven rates
T/C coverage / spot
Business opportunities
FFA Curve Source: Imarex, 23 February 2007
Q & A: Q & A