V Shat

Progress and problems of POP modelling: 

Progress and problems of POP modelling Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Prof. Victor Shatalov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East of EMEP Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Work-plan elements: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East 2. Evaluation of: Concentration and deposition fields Long-term trends Transboundary transport 1. Regional and hemispheric model development 3. Model validation 4. Co-operation with countries and organizations 5. Evaluation of new substances Work-plan elements

List of chemicals: 

List of chemicals PAHs PCBs Lindane ( -HCH) HCB PCDD/Fs Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Model development

POP physical-chemical properties: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East POP physical-chemical properties PAHs, PCBs, PCDD/Fs: more than 200 compounds each Selection of priority congeners for modelling. Details in a number of EMEP/MSC-E Technical Notes Model development

Peculiarities of POP modelling : 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Peculiarities of POP modelling Model development

General scheme: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East General scheme Model development

MSCE-POP multicompartment model: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East MSCE-POP multicompartment model Model development

Concentration levels in media: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East HCB concentrations in media, 1998 Concentration levels in media Model output

Long-range transport and hemispheric modelling: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Model output Long-range transport and hemispheric modelling

Long-term trends (1970 – 1998): 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East PCDD/F emissions and soil concentrations in Germany Model output Long-term trends (1970 – 1998)

Media response to emission reduction: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East PCB contamination of environmental media Scenario: Emissions = 0 Model output Media response to emission reduction

Transboundary transport: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Deposition flux, g/km2/y B[a]P deposition from Poland in 1998 Model output Transboundary transport

Comparison with measurements: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Comparison with measurements PCB-153 mean annual air concentrations, ng/m3 About 75%: within a factor of 3 Model validation

Co-operation with national experts: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Interpretation of modelling/ measurement results Comparison of different modelling approaches Joint EMEP reports and publications Co-operation with national experts

Review of MSC-E activities: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Internet: www.emep.int, www.msceast.org Reported: WMO/EMEP Workshop (Moscow, 1996) AMAP Workshop (Bergen, 1998) MEPOP Workshop (Hamburg, 1998) WMO/EMEP/UNEP Workshop (Geneva, 1999) EUROTRAC-2000 Symposium (Garmish-Partenkirchen, 2000) OECD/UNEP Workshop (Ottawa, 2001) Published: EUROTRAC Newsletter Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Review of MSC-E activities

2002 publications: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Background Document includes short summary on: 2002 publications

Conclusions: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Conclusions Progress achieved Profound studies of POP phys.-chem. properties. Model description of POP behavior in air, soil, seawater, vegetation. Development of pilot version of POP multicompartment models.

Conclusions: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Conclusions Modelling results for the EMEP region (B[a]P, PCB, PCDD/F, -HCH and HCB): Distribution between environmental compartments Spatial distribution of pollution Long-term trends Media response for emission reduction for PCBs and PCDD/Fs Transboundary transport for B[a]P

Conclusions: 

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Conclusions Model validation: Reasonable agreement with measurements Uncertainty and sensitivity studies (emissions!) POP model intercomparison study Further activities: Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale Evaluation of new substances Contributions to effects-based approach