WCF 18Apr07 Nair

The Environmental Future of China and Major Emerging MarketsWorld Cities ForumApril 2007: 

The Environmental Future of China and Major Emerging Markets World Cities Forum April 2007 Chandran Nair CEO, Global Institute For Tomorrow

Slide2: 

Facts on Asia Bulk of humanity resides in region (75% of world’s poor) Exceptional diversity – people, cultures, nature Development has been very uneven Most polluted and degraded continent One in three, no access to safe drinking water One in two, no access to sanitation Escalating social unrest : disenfranchised

Environmental Challenges in Emerging Markets: 

Environmental Challenges in Emerging Markets Urban: Air quality Sewage disposal Water pollution (Ind’l, Sewage) Solid waste disposal Toxic & Hazardous waste Rural: Groundwater & surface water pollution from fertilisers, pesticides, herbicides Degradation of land Deforestation for fuel Agro-industrial waste Depletion & Misuse: Water, fossil fuels, forest products, fisheries Competition for access, use, rights (geo-political) Loss of bio-diversity & extinction of species (fisheries, rainforest, sensitive ecosystems eg wetlands etc) Change to bio-sphere (eg. climate change, ozone layer, corals, etc.) Impacts on Human Development

Sustainable Development : Consistency in shape of development and environment: 

Sustainable Development : Consistency in shape of development and environment Shape of Economic Development Future Quality of the Environment Economic Social Environment Government Policy and Planning

Sustainable Development: Process of Change: 

A process requiring changes in: Exploitation of resources Direction of investments Orientation of technology Institutional policies and structures Consistent with future as well as present needs Sustainable Development: Process of Change

Challenge of Sustainability in Asia: 

Challenge of Sustainability in Asia Rural vs. Urban Poverty alleviation Population growth Resource management Biodiversity Public health What is the future of Asian cities?

Three Spheres for Sustainable Development in Asia-Pacific: 

Three Spheres for Sustainable Development in Asia-Pacific Urban Issues Challenge of the Commons Poverty Alleviation Shelter Food/Nutrition Water supply Basic energy Needs Land use Property rights Health care Education Sanitation Water supply Energy demand Mobility Air quality Public health Noise Waste management Recreation Forests, Fisheries, Water resources, Biodiversity, Climate change

Slide8: 

The majority of Chinese and Indians have yet to enter the outer edge of the consumption-led economy, wherein the threat of environmental impacts becomes truly significant. What will it be like when they do? Is the world ready? China and India’s development will pose a major challenge to themselves and to the rest of the world. The Giants Awaken : How will they sustain themselves?

Unprecedented Economic Growth: 

Unprecedented Economic Growth

Major Societal Transformation: 

Major Societal Transformation Currently, 40% of Chinese and 28% of Indians live in urban area Proportion of urban population predicted to reach 60% in China and 40% in India by 2030 The size of the middle class has also increased substantially. A 17% increase was observed in India during 2000 – 2003.

The high price …: 

The high price … Air quality below WHO standards in over 500 cities in China.

The high price …: 

The high price … 178 million tonnes of solid waste produced in China in 2003; 3.75 million of which are hazardous, a 55% increase from previous year.

The high price … : 

The high price …

High price for the “blue oil”: 

High price for the “blue oil” South-north water diversion in China Covers ~1000 km through a 1420 km-long canal in 40-50 years’ time, water volume equal to total volume in the Yellow River will have been diverted Results in habitat fragmentation: 1080 sq km of mountain top becomes ~100 islands Ancient relics submerged Relocation of 400,000 people Narmada River Dams in India 30 large dams and over 3000 smaller ones planned The largest dam, Sardar Sarorar, alone will submerge 40,000 ha of land and displace a quarter of a million people Disrupt downstream fisheries and inundate and salinate land along the way

Energy consumption: 

Energy consumption China is the world’s no. 2 energy consumer; and India ranks no. 5 Driven by increasing industrialisation and growing reliance on cars Energy consumption by transport increased by >200% from 1990 to 2000 China is the no. 3 energy producer worldwide, but still imports ~40% of its oil needs Projected annual % change in energy consumption (2003-2030): China +4.2% India +3.2% World average +2.0% Source: EIA

Local impacts of growing energy demand: 

Local impacts of growing energy demand Environmental destruction Oil rigs Oil and gas pipelines Air pollution: some of the most polluted cities: Beijing, Xian, Golmud sulphur dioxide emissions: 1/4 of world total; nitrogen monoxide emissions: 1/8 of world total; carbon monoxide emissions: 1/10 of world total

Global Impacts: 

Global Impacts China is the 2nd largest CO2 emitter Global warming and climate change Rising sea level and temperature Extreme weather Acid rain Water shortage

Trade-offs with economic growth: 

Trade-offs with economic growth World Bank estimates that pollution each year shaves 8-12% off China’s GDP in direct damage. More than 100 of China’s 660 cities face “extreme water shortages”. According to WWF, 5 of the top ten rivers at risk are in Asia, including the Yangtze, Mekong and Ganges. Acid rain falls on over 80% of cities in China. Beijing hit by 8 sandstorms in the first quarter of 2006, due to farmland erosion and desertification. Over 55% of the Indian urban population live in slums, with no access to improved sanitation.

Exploding Cities: 

Exploding Cities Source: United Nations, World UrbanizationPRospects: The 2001 Revision (2002): tables A.3 and A.4 Most increase occurred in urban area of less developed regions.

Global Cities: 

Global Cities All of the top 25 agglomerates have a population of over 10 million; 18 of them are in Asia. Among the top 50 agglomerates, 8 are in China, and 6 in India. Source: www.citypopulation.de (November 2006)

Cities: Ecological Footprint: 

Most countries, including many emerging markets, have become “ecological debtors”. Cities: Ecological Footprint

Economic cost of climate change and cities: 

Economic cost of climate change and cities Cost of dangers from unabated climate change 5-20% of GDP per year Cost of damage by each tonne of CO2 emission USD 85 Cost in cutting 1 tonne of CO2 emission USD 25 Markets of low-carbon technologies >USD $500 bn It makes more ecological and economic sense to abate climate change than “business as usual”.

Asia Cities: Why we are where we are?: 

Asia Cities: Why we are where we are? Colonial neglect and turmoil Post-colonial mismanagement Population explosion Rural neglect and urban migration Weak urban planning institutions Shortage of urban planning professionals Lack of political will

Sustainable Cities: Guiding Principles: 

Sustainable Cities: Guiding Principles

Decision Making: From Principles to Indicators: 

Decision Making: From Principles to Indicators Representative Scientifically valid Simple and easy to interpret Show trends over time Early warning about irreversible trends Sensitive to changes it is meant to indicate Readily available data Data adequately documented Quality data Capable of being updated Have target levels No Absolutes, Only Choices

Cross-sectoral Decision Making: 

Cross-sectoral Decision Making

Cross-sectoral Decision Making: 

Cross-sectoral Decision Making

Cross-sectoral Decision Making: 

Cross-sectoral Decision Making

Successful Examples: 

Successful Examples

We have the technology, but not the infrastructure:: 

We have the technology, but not the infrastructure: Institutional infrastructure needs to be strengthened for new challenges – incentives for private sector participation Investors lack the patience – quick-returns syndrome Biggest barrier to sustainable cities – institutional reforms, and use of economic instruments Government cannot do it alone Physical infrastructure for new technology too needs to be built, but sunk costs of old economy is a barrier, e.g. for hydrogen economy Vested interests: strong lobbies in most key sectors Align Incentives

Why capital does not follow pollution solutions:: 

Why capital does not follow pollution solutions: Markets take short-term view Public good inadequately costed – market imperfections in addressing externalities Timescales – poor understanding, ease of burden shifting Unclear political objectives and weak political will Institutional weakness – significant issue Competency mismatch – Public & Private sectors Missed Opportunities

What Technologies to Invest In?: 

What Technologies to Invest In? Anything that “does more with less” Enables conservation Enhances energy efficiency Triggers a move beyond the carbon economy Builds in or enables recovery and reuse Also reduces cost visibly and promptly Does not reduce convenience Efficiency Revolution

A Peek into the Future: 

A Peek into the Future Unprecedented speed and scale of development Economic development or sustainable development? * If every Chinese consumes as an average American does in 2000

Conclusion: To meet the environmental challenges of Asian cities: 

Conclusion: To meet the environmental challenges of Asian cities Strong Institutions Robust policies Political will Innovative financing Technology-transfer arrangements Trained urban planners for the 21st century Education Involvement of Civil Society Public awareness