Sensible Weather Impacts:
Sensible Weather Impacts CAD erosion via a coastal low may initially show little change in sensible weather (except a wind shift to the north)
CAD erosion via a scouring cold front often features warmer surface temperatures behind the front
Model Errors: Erosion Types:
Model Errors: Erosion Types Models handle erosion via cold frontal passage and a coastal low better than they handle erosion via surface low passing to the northwest and surface low moving southwest-to-northeast through the area
Low passing to northwest: Can bring warm front too far NW
Low moving southwest-to-northeast: Often try to drive the low straight through the heart of the wedge – a very rare occurrence
Monitoring Real Time Data: Indications of Potential CAD Erosion:
Monitoring Real Time Data: Indications of Potential CAD Erosion Surface flow no longer uniform northeast
High no longer in a favorable location to provide support (and dry air advection ends, thus ending contribution by evaporative cooling, even if it’s still precipitating)
Warm front steadily advancing from south with no impediment (but make sure air mass to south can compete with air mass to north)
Sounding shows a dropping inversion top
CFA incoming with strong cold air advection at warm-nose level
Coastal cyclone spinning up close to shore
Cold frontal passage imminent
Holes developing in cloud cover
…Thank you for your time and attention!:
…Thank you for your time and attention!