The Future of Computer Entertainment to 2050: The Future of Computer Entertainment to 2050 Ernest W. Adams Game Design Consultant ewadams@designersnotebook.comwww.designersnotebook.com I’m a member of


Three Perspectives on the Future: Three Perspectives on the Future Technological Advancement Demographic and Market Changes Aesthetic Development of the Medium


Technological Advancement: Technological Advancement


Technology Changes We Can Expect: Technology Changes We Can Expect More speed, RAM, and power (of course). More detail, faster frame rate, smarter creatures The effect on design is indirect, not direct. The PS3 is said to be “1000” times as fast as the PS2 -- but what does this really mean? Nobody knows. Broadband and mobile infrastructure (of course). I’ll get to this later. Hard disks as standard in consoles (near-term). Permits much more customization by the player. Permits patches, updates, episodic content.


Technology Changes We Can Expect: Technology Changes We Can Expect Continued growth in specialized peripherals. Wii controller is challenging existing paradigms Dance mats, Eye-toy, etc. all offer additional mechanisms of interaction beyond the handheld controller. Most will remain extra-cost items, however. Additional specialized processing accelerators Real-time raytracing Animation, inverse kinematics, or locomotion Neural nets or other AI accelerators Pathfinding hardware is already under development


Technology Changes We Can Expect: Technology Changes We Can Expect Changes in programming methodologies. What’s next after object-oriented programming? Graphical programming languages? Non-algorithmic or neural programming? Self-programming computers? Changes in content creation methods. Procedurally-generated: Buildings, landscapes, objects, creatures, people Will Wright’s Spore project, announced GDC 2005 Object-oriented artwork?


Why the PC Will Never Die: Why the PC Will Never Die With every new console generation, someone declares that the PC is dead for gaming. There are many reasons they are wrong: PCs can be expensive, consoles must be cheap. PCs and consoles optimized for different situations PCs, one person at 0.5 m; consoles, several people at 2 m. PCs are open systems requiring no license. No content limitations imposed by publicity-conscious publishers. People need to own PCs for other reasons, so developers will still make games for them. PC technology advancement is continuous, not stepwise. The latest PC is always ahead of the latest console.


PC vs Console Power Growth: PC vs Console Power Growth PC power Console power Time


What About VR/AR?: What About VR/AR? Industry got interested 8-9 years ago, but quit Prices too high, quality too low Depth perception not needed in many games Console gameplay is often a group activity It will come, but only when: Quality of the experience is high enough Frame rate, resolution, 3D audio We solve the motion-sickness problem HMDs are cheap, lightweight, and durable AR only meaningful in mixed-reality environments. Compared with traditional fictitious game worlds, there won’t be much demand for mixed-reality games.


Immediate Technological Challenges: Immediate Technological Challenges Animation Our graphics look great – until they move! People move like marionettes. Masses not properly modeled. Interactions with the environment not properly modeled. Interactions with other people not properly modeled. We need inverse kinematics Produces correct interactions with the environment We need true locomotion Properly models the behavior of bodies More research on the interactions of non-rigid bodies


Immediate Technological Challenges: Immediate Technological Challenges Artificial Intelligence Areas for research: Intelligent opponents (of course) Intelligent teammates (the stupid wingman problem) Voice recognition Must accept all sorts of people, without any training. Computer-generated speech Must not only handle inflections but also create a sense of the character and personality of the speaker. Recorded snippets can only go so far. Natural language comprehension Natural language generation AI has proven incredibly resistant to hardware improvements.


Immediate Technological Challenges: Immediate Technological Challenges The need for Procedural Content Generation Traditional content development costs continue to climb Traditional development time continues to rise Pre-rendered PCG Allows artists to hand-edit the results after generation On-the-fly PCG Requires a lot of CPU power Use the graphics hardware, not the main CPU Requires heuristics to avoid generating nonsense Must use pseudo-random sequences so a given object looks the same every time it is generated Good for unimportant objects that fit a pattern, e.g trees


Demographic and Market Changes: Demographic and Market Changes


Second/Third World Economic Growth: Second/Third World Economic Growth Second World (former Soviet states) Too many countries, too little demand (for now) Third World India and China are the ones to watch. Large centralized governments can implement friendly policies. (Working with many small countries is a pain.) Bigger populations buy more stuff! Those farther behind advance faster in percentage terms. Next: Islamic world, Southeast Asia, Africa. Games are a luxury. Leisure dollars determine the order. Islamic world has the advantage of being (mostly) unilingual.


Obstacles to World Expansion: Obstacles to World Expansion Piracy is the #1 obstacle. Four steps are required to beat it: Governments must acknowledge and support the idea of intellectual property rights. Governments must formalize this in legislation. Governments must enforce, with sufficient resources, their new anti-piracy laws. The population must be taught that piracy is wrong. Technology, infrastructure, economy are smaller problems and will solve themselves in time.


Selling into Other Cultures: Selling into Other Cultures People want their native forms of entertainment. Bollywood, Japanese comic books, etc. Other countries will want games about themselves. The West must either learn to build them or lose out. Can’t sell Western hardware at Western prices. Mobile phone gaming is set to go big in India because the hardware is already there. Programming outsourcing will accelerate Already western programming jobs are going to eastern Europe and India. Indians should develop games for Indians!


Shifting Demographics in Western Markets: Shifting Demographics in Western Markets Aging player base The average age is 33 and rising. Older players demand richer experiences. Fracturing of the youth market Not just “kids” and “adults” any more. Each age-year has its own interests (esp. girls). Arrival of women… in force! Now more women players than teenaged boys!! Women want different kinds of challenges.


Changes to Data Transmission Methods: Changes to Data Transmission Methods Real broadband Electronic software distribution Richer versions of existing online games 3D-positioned speech based on virtual proximity New kinds of games not possible before Streaming video UPload Mobile entertainment Tug-of-war between formats Growth but not explosive growth


Electronic Software Distribution: Electronic Software Distribution Driving digital data around in a truck is really stupid. It’s slow. It’s wasteful of natural resources. Once we solve two problems, electronic software distribution is the way of the future. Speed Must be able to download a game’s worth of data in less time than it takes to drive to the store and buy it in a box. Several gigabytes in 30 minutes. Piracy (again) We’ll solve this with encryption techniques and distribute-on-demand mechanisms.


The Age of Online: The Age of Online According to Jim TerKeurst: (Business Development Manager, University of Abertay, Dundee) New value chain: Developer Provider Consumer Only publishers with in-house or owned development capability will survive Telecoms will become key providers No more retailers Telecoms eventually buy up developers also Eventually, no CD drive or hard drive in consoles; all data is downloaded with each play.


Content Explosion for Niche Markets: Content Explosion for Niche Markets Consider American TV in 1965: Bandwidth limited to terrestrial broadcast. Broadcast spectrum dominated by 3 networks. All content aimed at broadest audience possible. One or two animal documentaries a year. Consider American TV after cable: Huge amount of bandwidth available. Dozens of networks. Channels based on content, i.e. markets. One channel devoted 100% to animal documentaries!


Content Explosion for Niche Markets: Content Explosion for Niche Markets Consider video game delivery today: Bandwidth limited to shop shelves. Shelves dominated by a few big publishers. Content aimed at big markets only. One or two games for Civil War fans, total. Consider video game delivery via Internet: Shelf space is infinite. Anyone can set up a website. No need to guess how many copies to manufacture. Small developers can serve small markets.


From the Designer’s Perspective: From the Designer’s Perspective With electronic distribution, products don’t have to fit within a mechanical format. Delivery cost is a linear function of file size, not a step function of # of DVD’s needed. A game can be as large as it needs to be We can assume that the player is on-line and make use of that. We will have a closer relationship with the players — fewer middle men.


Why Games Aren’t Movies: Why Games Aren’t Movies Movies can sell the same content 5 times Cinema, pay-per-view cable, pay cable channel, free cable channel, broadcast, VCR/DVD Movies are not tied to a display technology You can still watch movies that are 50 years old Movies have star power People feel a personal attraction to movie stars


Unanswered Questions: Unanswered Questions How important is the retail shopping experience? Retailers may actually add some value. Maybe people like browsing in game shops. Some sales are impulse purchases. Children whining at Wal-Mart sells games! Is it important to get a box at Christmas? Maybe people won’t like presents that consist only of a URL in an envelope.


Mobile Entertainment: Mobile Entertainment The universe of mobile devices: Handheld game devices Nintendo DS PSP (equivalent to a PS1) PDAs Mobile phones Windows Mobile Smartphone Tablet PCs It’s a mess! No device has all the features needed to do everything.


Mobile Convergence? Maybe Not.: Mobile Convergence? Maybe Not. Screens A PDA needs a large minimum screen size. Phones only recently got screens at all. Inputs You must be able to hold a phone to your ear. You must be able to write on a PDA. A game device must have joysticks & buttons. Conclusion: nothing does all of these well at once. Phones serve the ear PDAs serve the eye Game devices serve the thumbs


Who Plays Mobile Games?: Who Plays Mobile Games? Japanese a lot, Americans less. Why? The Japanese commute to work on the train, Americans drive cars. Will women play on phones? Probably not; if the cost is the same as to talk, they would rather talk. In the West: PDAs are an adults-only device Game handhelds are a children-only device Phones are an EVERYBODY device. Therefore phones will have the broadest range of game types.


When to Play Mobile Games?: When to Play Mobile Games? Adults: during brief breaks, or while commuting. This suggests short, simple games. Children: whenever they have free time. Children’s games can be bigger than adult ones! Games that depend on location or travel? Useful in theme parks, Laser Tag, etc. Not ever going to be a major segment. Compare # of video gamers to # of paintball players.


Mobile Phones = Digital Clocks: Mobile Phones = Digital Clocks In the long run… Mobile phones will not drive out other devices. Other devices will absorb mobile phone capability. Just as everything now contains a digital clock, someday everything will contain a mobile phone. Phone manufacturers should license their technology to other device manufacturers, not compete with them. Don’t sell handsets, sell the electronics inside.


Aesthetic Development: Aesthetic Development


Graphical Realism No Longer Critical: Graphical Realism No Longer Critical Jason Rubin of Naughty Dog identified this at GDC-Europe 2003. He said: Graphical improvements are starting to slow down. They are no longer a steeply rising curve. We have passed a threshold and they are no longer a primary selling point for games. Graphics are still important. But they are no longer our best sales tool. The Matrix has used too many special effects; people are bored with them.


Graphical Realism No Longer Critical: Graphical Realism No Longer Critical The quest for graphic quality will still go on, but... We must find new ways of attracting the customer. Visual design innovations Non-photorealism, new art styles Game design innovations New kinds of games, new ways to play. We need groundbreaking innovators in all areas. Impressionism was a new way of seeing that changed painting forever. We need a new way of playing that may change gaming forever. Where are our Impressionists?


Integrating Interactivity and Narrative: Integrating Interactivity and Narrative We do this very well right now in a limited domain, action-adventures and Half-Life. We’re good at interactive Schwartzenegger movies (all action, no character or emotion). Our larger challenge is to do this in other contexts. Can we make an interactive romantic comedy? Soap opera? Political thriller?


Replacing Tired Conventions : Replacing Tired Conventions Gaming has evolved many conventions. Some of them are turn-offs to new gamers: “Logic and common sense are not important.” “If you can blow it up, you should blow it up.” “Levels end with a boss who’s very hard to kill.” “Your soldiers are expendable cannon fodder.” “Players prefer destroying to building.” “Women should have big breasts and few clothes.” We must replace these to reach new markets.


What About the Online Experience?: What About the Online Experience? We need new forms of online entertainment. Not everybody wants to compete. There must be something in between the chat room and the MMORPG. MMORPGs are too “gamer”-y for many people. Short games for extremely large groups. Going online as an means of personal expression. Broadband will enable richer, more personal experiences. Microsoft is already researching this issue for Xbox Live.


Getting Recognition as an Art Form: Getting Recognition as an Art Form We need: An aesthetic for judging and a vocabulary for discussing interactive artworks Serious criticism by well-educated people (Not just “game reviews” by teenagers.) Academic study of the medium Highly-publicized, well-respected awards A cult of personality à la film directors Art requires an artist – someone for people to admire


The Growth of Academic Research: The Growth of Academic Research The industry has little time or money for basic research. Academic research offers many exciting possibilities. Technical - graphics, AI, game algorithms. CHI - interfaces, VR, psychology, perception. Aesthetic/ludic - narrative, art, music, play. Best of all, academic research does not have to produce commercial products! You are free to explore new areas -- so do it!


Fifty Years from Now: Fifty Years from Now


Looking Back to Look Forward: Looking Back to Look Forward In 30 years, how we play has not changed much. Handheld/mobile on the bus to school Console in the living room PC in the home office or kid’s bedroom Convergence will be partial, not total. A computer monitor is better than a TV. Handhelds cannot contain the best hardware. A PC is a poor machine for group play.


A Few Popular Fantasies: A Few Popular Fantasies The all-over VR body suit Only as a very high-end option for fanatics Current equivalent is ThunderSeats for flight sim fans. Have to take it to the dry cleaner’s after every game. Jacks into your brain Only nerds think this is a good idea. Not in 50 years. Biology is harder than electronics. Artificial People Very likely. Good enough to be in a game. Real people aren’t always that bright anyway! Turing’s test would disqualify a lot of them…


Ray Bradbury’s Dark Visions: Ray Bradbury’s Dark Visions Fahrenheit 451 Interactive soap operas on wall-sized TV screens. Wall-sized TV screens are possible now, but not that useful. We already have interactive soap operas. “The Veldt” An entire room devoted to gameplay: walls, ceiling, floor Not many people have complete home cinemas today. It’s overkill; VR would be cheaper and more effective. Technically possible, but sociologically unlikely. Housing used to cost 25% of income, now at 40-60%. It’s not the gear but the living space that’s at a premium.


Final Thought: Final Thought It’s not about the technology, it’s about the human beings. Don’t ask what we can build. We can build nearly anything. Ask what people want us to build.


The Future of Computer Entertainment to 2050: The Future of Computer Entertainment to 2050 Ernest W. Adams Game Design Consultant ewadams@designersnotebook.comwww.designersnotebook.com I’m a member of