Avian Flu, its Economic Impact, and the Role of the World Bank in Africa: Avian Flu, its Economic Impact, and the Role of the World Bank in Africa Oscar F. Picazo World Bank – Pretoria Presentation to the Second AHI Regional Platform Meeting for Southern Africa May 3, 2007 Emperor’s Palace Hotel, Johannesburg


Outline: Outline Indicators of the epidemic Confirmed human cases Illustration of actual impacts in East Asia Models of economic impact Bird-to-bird flu Human pandemic World Bank operations in avian flu


Acceleration in Human Infections and Deaths in 2006: Acceleration in Human Infections and Deaths in 2006


Little Impact on East Asian Growth Overall …Except Thailand: Little Impact on East Asian Growth Overall …Except Thailand


40% Drop in Thai Poultry Exports: 40% Drop in Thai Poultry Exports


Little Noticeable Impact on Tourist Arrivals: Little Noticeable Impact on Tourist Arrivals


Likely Economic Impact Based on Models: Likely Economic Impact Based on Models Bird-to-bird flu Human pandemic McKibbin andamp; Sidorenko global model Burns, van der Mesnbrugghe, and Timmer’s World Bank model on global and regional impact, and types of impact


Impact of a Widening Bird-to-Bird Flu(% change in GDP relative to the baseline): Impact of a Widening Bird-to-Bird Flu (% change in GDP relative to the baseline)


Possible Global Economic Impact of Avian Flu Human PandemicWorld Bank calculations based on McKibbin & Sidorenko (2006): Possible Global Economic Impact of Avian Flu Human Pandemic World Bank calculations based on McKibbin andamp; Sidorenko (2006)


Three Human Pandemic Scenarios: Three Human Pandemic Scenarios


Breakdown of Global Economic Impact of Human-to-Human Pandemic(Burns, van der Mensrugghe, and TimmerWorld Bank model, 2006): Breakdown of Global Economic Impact of Human-to-Human Pandemic (Burns, van der Mensrugghe, and Timmer World Bank model, 2006)


Impact on Mortality(WB Model): Impact on Mortality (WB Model) Assumes a human flu pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish flu. Globally, 1.08% of the world population dies, with mortality rates varying from 0.3% in the U.S. to more than 2% in some developing countries.


Impact on Illness and Absenteeism(WB Model): Impact on Illness and Absenteeism (WB Model) For every person that dies, 3 are seriously ill, requiring hospitalization for a week and absence from work for 2 weeks; 4 require medical treatment and are absent from work for a week; Approx. 27% of the population has a mild bout of flu requiring 2 days’ absence from work; For every sick day, another absentee day is registered either because people stay at home to care for a sick person or to avoid illness.


Impact from Efforts to Avoid Infection(WB Model): Impact from Efforts to Avoid Infection (WB Model) Efforts to avoid infection are modeled as a demand shock, reflecting reduced travel, restaurant dining, hotels, tourism, theater visits, shopping, etc. as individuals seek to avoid contact with others.


Total Impact by Regions(Reckoned in 2006 values): Total Impact by Regions (Reckoned in 2006 values)


Approved World Bank Projectsin AHI Preparedness and Responsein sub-Saharan Africa (as of March 21, 07): Approved World Bank Projects in AHI Preparedness and Response in sub-Saharan Africa (as of March 21, 07)


World Bank AHI Projects in the Pipeline (as of February 1, 07): World Bank AHI Projects in the Pipeline (as of February 1, 07)


References: References Brahmbhatt, Milan (June 2006). Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza Propagation. First International Conference on Avian Influenza. Paris, France: Institut Pasteur. Burns, Andrew, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, and Hans Timmer (2006). Evaluating the Economic Consequences of Avian Influenza. Drawn from an earlier version in Global Development Finance. Sandman, Peter M. and Jody Lanard (May 2006). Bird Flu, Pandemic Flu, and Poultry Markets: Playing Ostrich or Talking Turkey? World Bank (June 2006). World Bank’s Contribution to the Global Response to Avian and Human Influenza.