PlanC

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Plan C: The Conserver Option – Curtailment, Cooperation, Community: 

Plan C: The Conserver Option – Curtailment, Cooperation, Community Third U.S. Conference on “Peak Oil” and Community Solutions Yellow Springs, Ohio Presented by Pat Murphy, Executive Director The Community Solution September 23, 2006

Reality Continues: 

Reality Continues Colin Campbell (ASPO) continues to count the days Opponents confuse by ignoring conventional distinction

Another Discovery Tick: 

Another Discovery Tick April 2006 Association for Study of Peak Oil Newsletter

The USGS Remains Silent: 

The USGS Remains Silent Hirsch (DOE) & Dept. of Army show real government view Similar situation with King Hubbert and Vincent McKelvey

We Do Have a Plan: 

We Do Have a Plan Over 5 years old – Energy Policy Plan Knew about Peak Oil when written Many dislike it – but it’s a plan Largest investment – Military approach Control Middle East oil and gas Secondary Investment – Energy Long Term Investments since 1970s Solar Surprise – Bezdek & Wendling Popular view needs reanalysis

Military – Likely Resources Conflict: 

Military – Likely Resources Conflict US hostile to many oil nations Iran may be invaded – could lead to World War Russia and China rearming – Russia gas turnoff

Unequal Energy, Income, Pollution Basis for Resource Wars: 

Unequal Energy, Income, Pollution Basis for Resource Wars Population US–5%, OECD Lite–10% ROW–85% Ratio U.S./ROW–8 OECD-l/ROW–4 Result–15% Burn ½ energy Have ½ wealth Make ½ CO2 HxCy = $ = CO2

World Now Understands: Wealth=Energy: 

World Now Understands: Wealth=Energy Everyone is a capitalist now Political approach unimportant Democracy or Dictatorship India or China It’s economic growth And energy consumption Cold war returning Shanghai Cooperative Differences are resource control, not ideology Energy Wars are likely U.S. military budget is over $500 billion yearly 50% of world arms expenditure U.S. giving nuclear support to India to counter China China built 12 submarines last year; tested missile

Non-Military Energy Investments: 

Non-Military Energy Investments Funding Proposal 2007 Advanced Energy Initiative Huge private investments – GE $148B (wind), Sharp $24B (PV) Arthur Daniels Midland & Cargill $110B (bio-fuels)

Climate Change Adding Urgency!: 

Climate Change Adding Urgency! My personal epiphany of 2006!! CO2 = 2.6 * Fuel Burned (weight) 2005 IEA report Issue not when oil is half gone Economic contractions Paradigm shift We dare not burn remaining oil Nor the coal, tar sands & shale! Why don’t we see this? We are bewitched!

Technology Faith – America’s Danger : 

Technology Faith – America’s Danger U.S. belief in technology is strong Religion of all religions Doctrine of “substitution” implies there are no growth limits This belief sets national policy Two major Plans – A & B Both count on technology Opposing positions - maybe

Energy Plan A – Fossil Fuel-Based : 

Energy Plan A – Fossil Fuel-Based So called “non-renewables” Business as usual Develop tar sands, oil shale, nuclear Top priority is “clean” coal (Bury CO2 in ocean and land) CO2 from coal – 2x natural gas Corporate/government view President Bush, CEOs of Exxon, Cargill, GE, GM, Ford

Energy Plan B – Non-Fossil Fuel-Based : 

Energy Plan B – Non-Fossil Fuel-Based So called “renewables” “Environmentally” oriented Develop wind and solar Nuclear being debated One priority is bio-fuels Burning of food Assumes new transportation options Mass transit, fuel cells, PHEVs Al Gore, Lester Brown, Carl Pope, Amory Lovins, James Lovelock Many solar and wind companies

Energy Plans A & B – Common Points: 

Energy Plans A & B – Common Points Fuels or new sources (A or B Technology) will save us Plan A – Clean Coal, Tar Sands Plan B – Switch Grass, Wind and Solar Nuclear power supported by both to some degree Lots of overlap between two e.g. GE Biggest wind turbine company Biggest power plant (coal, gas, nuclear) company Agreement – Nation’s # 1 goal Increase economic growth by increased energy consumption We don’t have to consume less energy – just different energy Technology is the answer

But Can Technology “Save Us”?: 

But Can Technology “Save Us”? This is a belief issue – it is not at all obvious Technology = more efficient/innovative machines burning fuels Could technology exist without fossil fuels Will it continue when fossil fuels are gone? There are high energy and low energy technologies Cars, planes, power plants Bypass surgery, most drugs, better golf clubs We have yet to consider a high tech – low energy world Recent energy technology breakthroughs are not impressive

Comparison to Past Projects: 

Comparison to Past Projects Popular mantra for Peak Oil – We need a …. (Manhattan, Apollo, Marshall Plan) Project Time lines Manhattan Project – 12 years Apollo Project – 9 Years Marshall Plan - 11 years Recent uncompleted energy projects Hydrogen Economy – 33 years Fuel cell discovered in 1843 Nuclear Fusion – 40 plus years in development

Two Examples – One Old, One New : 

Two Examples – One Old, One New Hyper car – H2, fuel cell 30 years of overstatement Always fundamentally flawed Takes more energy to make H2 than it creates – ignored Popular with Plan B advocates CO2 (Carbon) Sequestration (aka CCS) Gives us “Clean” Coal Dirt (toxins) legacy to our children Popular with Plan A advocates (And Al Gore)

“Green” Solution – H2/Fuel Cell Facts: 

“Green” Solution – H2/Fuel Cell Facts 1843 – Fuel cell invented 1904 – Wind power generates hydrogen 1965 – Fuel cell built in Space program 1973 – Nixon Project Independence (H2) 1993 – Ballard makes first FC bus ($800 M) 2002 – Two FC cars arrive in California 2006 – A few hundred vehicles out of 750,000,000 Price is around $1,000,000 Still don’t know where the hydrogen will come from Wind/H2 1904

1999 Technology Projections: 

1999 Technology Projections Daimler Chrysler – pledged 100,000 FC vehicles/yr by 2005 Invested $350 million in Ballard Power Systems Ford – Invested $420 million in Ballard Toyota committed to fuel cell “well before 2002” GM – promised fuel cell cars in 2004 All hype – Nothing has come of it except prototypes From Amory Lovins’ Natural Capitalism (1999)

New Option – “Clean” Fossil Fuels: 

New Option – “Clean” Fossil Fuels CO2 Sequestration – A potential holocaust for all life Remember nuclear waste ocean dumping? Nuclear waste still around – and increasing in volume

The Sequestration Challenge: 

The Sequestration Challenge Bury 1–2 trillion pounds of CO2 annually Put in earth and oceans Contain it for 1000s of years Tests have placed trivial amounts Canada land site, Norway sea site CO2 has stayed for 10 years Government and corporations unlikely to wait for proof Future Gen project test – 2012 at earliest Like nuclear industry, private industry will not be liable Repeating the nuclear experience – but more dangerous “Bequestration” better name than “sequestration” Legacy for our children – an uninhabitalbe planet

Major Corporate Backing: 

Major Corporate Backing Princeton University's Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) $20-million dollar from British Petroleum and Ford MIT Carbon Initiative funded by energy and car corporations: American Electric Power, American Petroleum Institute, Aramco Services, Chevron, Electricité de France (EDF), EPRI, ExxonMobil, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Marathon Oil, Peabody Energy (Coal) Public excluded Dear Mr. Murphy, Thank you for your interest in the MIT Carbon Sequestration Initiative.  At this time, the prospectus is only available for our corporate sponsors or potential corporate sponsors.  -- Mary

Plans A & B Lead to Plan D – Dieoff: 

Plans A & B Lead to Plan D – Dieoff Based on legitimate despair Lack of confidence in leadership Political Corporate Scientific See little hope for people actions Advocates are not naive Jay Hanson

Bartlett at ASPO-USA: November 2005: 

Bartlett at ASPO-USA: November 2005 "How dumb could a civilization be that had a finite resource of really high quality energy and burned it all up in such a short time, leaving essentially nothing behind?" “In the 5000 years of recorded history, 250 to 300 years and the age of oil is all over. What kind of world will we leave our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren? What will they say of us? Will our great grand children say, "What kind of monsters must they have been?” *Representative Roscoe Bartlett at ASPO-USA: November 2005

Results Aren’t So Good: 

Results Aren’t So Good High crime rates Murders, rapes, assaults Record high incarceration Environmental degradation Soil disappearing Growing inequity 2005 highest in U.S. recorded history Deteriorating health Loss of civic engagement Lack of involvement Loss of community Need something better

Plan C – Conserving in Community: 

Plan C – Conserving in Community A view of only using enough Conserving, Sharing & Saving vs. Competing, Hoarding & Consuming Means Curtailment – Cutting back Not “token” conservation Sharing resources now and with people in the future Needs “Community” Context for a new “Way of Life” Cooperation Principle

Conserving Different from Efficiency : 

Conserving Different from Efficiency Efficiency increases consumption – at least for our culture! Jevons Paradox – more efficiency means more consumption Conservation (curtailment) – deliberate attempt to use less A context where efficiency is not a basis for more consumption

Plan C – Underway Since 1970s : 

Plan C – Underway Since 1970s There are several Plan C schools Agrarians Intentional Communities CSAs Sustainability Movements Small Towns Voluntary Simplicity Groups Permaculture Organic local farmers Appropriate and Intermediate Technology Groups Response when these groups hear of Peak Oil & Climate Change “I wondered what would trigger the crisis!” Share similar values And the values determine the technologies and tactics

Plan C Technology – Intermediate: 

Plan C Technology – Intermediate We need technology – but not the high-energy kind Easy to determine Plan C technology Visit other countries – 5, 10 or 20 BOE yearly vs. U.S. 57 History’s junk yards – re-implement discarded technologies Locate, and use, latest intermediate technologies E.F. Schumacher Society (England), Univ. of Illinois Intermediate technology Does not imply “going back” to outdated methods A forward movement into new territories “The achievement of science does not lie mainly in the apparatus and machinery that have been developed from it” E. F. Schumacher – Small is Beautiful

Plan C Example – Cuba: 

Plan C Example – Cuba Experienced unexpected Peak Oil with USSR 1990 collapse Implemented “Plan C” 2004 – same life span/infant mortality as U.S. Uses 1/8 oil U.S. per capita Just declared 2006 as The Year of the Energy Revolution Cutting energy 50% more See “The Power of Community – How Cuba Survived Peak Oil”

Community or Personal Change?: 

Community or Personal Change? Two schools of thought – change policy or change self Obviously both – but the order is important Decentralization, localization, relocalization Do we study Yellow Springs 20 vehicles and 5 buildings? Or villagers’ 2,000 vehicles and 1,500 homes? Personal experience needed to make community change May require a conserver mind set to even analyze options Most people still believe in Plan A or B – want alternatives There are technical skills lacking – EROEI, Live Cycle Costs Successes to date are arguable – passing resolutions

Context – U.S. Personal Consumption: 

Context – U.S. Personal Consumption Food. Cars, Houses (BOE Equivalent); about half total Each of these greater than total consumption of ROW Focus on these three personal consumption – ignore rest

Family Farm or Corporate Farm: 

Family Farm or Corporate Farm 10 calories of fossil fuels consumed per calorie of food energy produced Destroying life-giving soil Using fossil fuel water Exploitation of migrant workers Short life span Suffering of farm animals Increasing levels of obesity and diabetes in population Destroyed livelihoods

Plan C Food Tactics: 

Plan C Food Tactics Eat less – from 3,800 to 2,500 Calories per day (1/3 reduction) Fight obesity and medical costs Change your diet Avoid beverage and snack food industry Avoid manufactured foods – don’t support the enemy Don’t eat industrial manufactured meat (16 to 1 fuel ratio) Eat locally grown meats or don’t eat meat Prepare and store your own food – avoid freezers Create a garden – use the energy intensive lawn Raising food teaches something school can’t

Big Car or Frugal Car (or no car): 

Big Car or Frugal Car (or no car) The values of style and image Its not about transport Rest of world is frugal U.S. 21 mpg Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg GM Hummer vs. Honda Insight Example GM Hummer (10 mpg) 2005 sales – 61,000 units Honda Insight (60 mpg) 2005 sales – 700 units In September 2006, Honda took Insight off the market Government will not pass C.A.F.E. Standards Did so in 1975; Cut speed limits in 1974

Plan C Transportation Tactic: 

Plan C Transportation Tactic Replace your car with a more efficient one – new or used Don’t wait to buy a hybrid Buy foreign cars when possible Force U.S. manufacturers to change U.S. companies make small cars overseas It’s greed for SUV profits Share rides everywhere Set a high goal e.g. drive alone 50% less

Small Is Beautiful: 

Small Is Beautiful McMansion vs. Simple Homes Habitat for Humanity/Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL–BTC) Successful building of very low energy small houses U.S. houses twice the size of European houses (like cars) 2000 vs. 1000 sq. ft.

Plan C Home Tactics: 

Plan C Home Tactics Live in a smaller space. Retrofit the home you have (60 year average life) Focus on building envelope – floors, walls, ceilings/roofs May have to build inner walls Upgrade windows Build window covers if you can’t replace windows Evaluate and upgrade (or eliminate) appliances (10-year life) On-demand water heater may help Fluorescents or LED lights replace incandescents Get Sunfrost refrigerator or equivilent Remodel for multiple tenants

Seem Too Simple?: 

Seem Too Simple? Huge change of perspective Wait until a Hummer gets on the tail of your small car Will your friends visit you in a lesser home? Can you eat healthy? There are many new physical skills required And new analytical skills to be learned It will take years – and you will be a different person Better option that gathering more data about technology This is a radical change for America – and a needed one

Community Solutions Plan C Projects: 

Community Solutions Plan C Projects Agraria – small community in Yellow Springs, Ohio The basis for repopulation of the rural areas Houses using 1/4th energy of conventional houses Multi-use – farming, workshops, clustered housing Land located – dependent on funds Smart Jitney – ride sharing system to share cars Specifications at communitysolution.org Reduce national energy use by 75% Reduce accidents Rebuild community Common principle – cut energy (and CO2) by 75%

Community Solutions Plan C Studies: 

Community Solutions Plan C Studies Retrofit and Reclaim Refurbish 110 million U. S. residences – average life: 60 years Problem is to retrofit – not do new “green” or “eco” building When crisis approaches, there will be little new building Consumer Energy Data Book Budgeting for energy not money Consumer is ignorant of energy Confused by concept and measures (gal, Cu Ft, kWh) Doesn’t understand energy/money relationship

Wendell Berry’s Reminder: 

Wendell Berry’s Reminder You must depend upon affection, reading, knowledge, skill – more of each than you have – imagination, work, growing older, patience, for patience joins time to eternity A new vision! Less is More!

Slide43: 

Plan C The Conserver Option Curtailment, Cooperation, Community

1948 Policy Planning Study 23 George Kennan – State Department Planning: 

1948 Policy Planning Study 23 George Kennan – State Department Planning We have 50% of the world's wealth, but only 6% of its population. We are the object of envy and resentment. Our future task in the coming period is to devise relationships to maintain this position of disparity Must dispense with all sentimentality Concentrate everywhere on our national objectives We should forget about human rights, the raising of the living standards, and democratization. We are going to have to deal in straight power concepts We cannot be hampered by idealistic slogans

1948 Policy Planning Study 23 George Kennan – State Department Planning: 

1948 Policy Planning Study 23 George Kennan – State Department Planning We have 50% of the world's wealth, but only 6% of its population In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity To do so, we will have to dispense with all sentimentality and day-dreaming; and our attention will have to be concentrated everywhere on our immediate national objectives We should cease to talk about vague and...unreal objectives such as human rights, the raising of the living standards, and democratization. The day is not far off when we are going to have to deal in straight power concepts. The less we are then hampered by idealistic slogans, the better.”

E.F. Schumacher – The Last Energy Crisis: 

E.F. Schumacher – The Last Energy Crisis Intermediate technology does not imply “going back” to outdated methods. The achievement of science does not lie mainly in the apparatus and machinery that have been developed from it. A rejection of the apparatus and machinery is not tantamount to a rejection of science. The real achievement lines in accumulating precise knowledge which can be applied in many ways; the current application is only one. The development of intermediate technologies means a genuine forward movement into new territory. Need technology appropriate for labor surplus societies

U.S. Personal Consumption Food – Cars – Houses (BOE Equivalent): 

U.S. Personal Consumption Food – Cars – Houses (BOE Equivalent) Third world per capita 7.3 boe equivalent We use more just to run homes And more for cars Proposed sustainability definition Consume at 3rd world level This is about half consumption 57 boe is total – personal plus corporate Work on this – not new cars

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