Presentation Transcript
Geelong: Taking a world view: Geelong: Taking a world view
International business outlook
Terry McCrann
CEDA/ City of Geelong/ Committee for Geelong
It’s the 21st century - stupid: It’s the 21st century - stupid Understand today – look forward
State of play
How we got ‘here’
Where we are headed
Secular and ‘cyclical
It’s the 21st century - stupid : It’s the 21st century - stupid It’s 16 years since Tiananmen square
Communist China into Consumer China
China in the 21st century
It’s 14 years since the ‘recession we had….’
It’s even nine years since god Paul ‘died’
It’s all about change: It’s all about change The original 9/11
Globalisation
Technology
Communication
24/7 real-time world
Relentless cost pressure
Everyone has competitors
Everyone is a competitor
The ‘small’ change-9/11s: The ‘small’ change-9/11s China
US FTA
Domestic
Reform agenda
Red tape
Governance/stakeholders
The non-9/11: The non-9/11 Why 12/26 is
no 9/11…
The impacts of 9/11, 12/26: The impacts of 9/11, 12/26 September 11
10% of 30% of 100%
$5b annual insurance
$US50 oil
$US600b/$500b deficits
1% interest rates
Huge damage/costs
Global boom
December 26
10% of 1% of 100%
Zero
Zero
Zero
Zero
Huge (local) damage
Global compassion boom
The mother of all free lunches : The mother of all free lunches
Huge damage/costs + global boom: Huge damage/costs + global boom Global boom
– China makes/ US buys/ Asia finances
Global capital flows/ liquidity
Asset/commodity prices
Currency pressures
- China-US-Yen-Euro-everyone else
The ‘former’ mother of all…… : The ‘former’ mother of all……
Virtuous(?) circle around property: Virtuous(?) circle around property
Borrow and spend: Borrow and spend Housing credit
June 1999 $258b
August 2004 $600b
Growth and consumer spending : Growth and consumer spending
As the ‘mother’ departs…… : As the ‘mother’ departs……
It’s all about China (and the US): It’s all about China (and the US)
The international outlook: The international outlook US dollar down because of deficit….
….but steadies because of rates
China booms because of currency
Aussie dollar up because of US $….
….but down because of deficit…
….but steadies because of resources
Good news?: Good news?
No, it’s really all about oil Global demand/supply (millions of barrels a day): No, it’s really all about oil Global demand/supply (millions of barrels a day) ?
‘Cyclical’ + secular: ‘Cyclical’ + secular ‘Cyclical
Post 9/11 US monetary policy pumping in cash
China demand + production
Now being withdrawn
Secular
China (+India) demand + production
Globalisation/ communications/ computers
Galloping on
The lucky country: The lucky country Australia China America
The perfect triangulation : The perfect triangulation FTA locks us into the world’s biggest and best, cutting edge high-tech economy
We ride the resources supply boom
Then shift up the value chain
China gives us cheap consumer goods