STIG chemclim

EMISSION FROM INTERNATIONAL SEA TRANSPORTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTØyvind Endresen, Eirik Sørgård and Gjermund GravirDet Norske Veritas, Veritasveien 1, N-1322 Høvik, Norway. andStig B. Dalsøren, Jostein K. Sundet, Tore F. Berglen and Ivar S. A. IsaksenDepartment of Geophysics, University of Oslo, Norway: 

EMISSION FROM INTERNATIONAL SEA TRANSPORTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Øyvind Endresen, Eirik Sørgård and Gjermund Gravir Det Norske Veritas, Veritasveien 1, N-1322 Høvik, Norway. and Stig B. Dalsøren, Jostein K. Sundet, Tore F. Berglen and Ivar S. A. Isaksen Department of Geophysics, University of Oslo, Norway

Introduction: 

Introduction Not regulated by the Kyoto agreement (UNFCCC, 2001). Fuel: Main engines often use residual fuels, high content of sulphur, nitrogen and ash. 1,6 % global yearly increase in fuel consumption (this study). 5.4% per year growth in shipping trade in Asia 1988-95 (Streets et al. 2000) Regulated by ANNEX VI of MARPOL 73/78 (the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships) (IMO, 1998). Before possible (expensive) regulations are implemented. - reliable emission inventories (Veritas) - Quantification and evaluation of environmental impacts (UiO)

Emission model: 

Emission model Distribution of the world fleet of ships (1) Lloyd’s World fleet statistics 1996 and 2000 (2) OECD 1997 (Push-towed vessels not included) (3) Adcock 1995 and ENCYCLOPÆDIA BRITANNICA 1998 (4) Includes 759 submarines (5) Includes 523 submarines

Slide4: 

Modelled cargo and passenger fleet fuel consumption and emissions in 1996 and 2000 from the main engine(S) (ME) and auxiliary engines (AUX) 1) Bulk dry and Bulk dry/oil vessels 2) Including Passenger/General Cargo vessels 3) Including Passenger/RO-RO vessels

GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMISSIONS: 

Alternative methods for distribution of the emissions are used COADS: Based on 6,931 ships reporting of routine meteorological observations, ideally at 6-hours intervals according to procedures by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The data for 1996 is statistically summarised on a monthly basis with a 1°x1° spatial resolution. Purple Finder: Communicate with each vessel's Inmarsat-C terminal and automatically reports position. PF has supported us with a fleet map on 1°x1° for year 2000 that contains vessel observations for 1863 ocean going cargo vessels. AMVER (Automated Mutual-assistance Vessel Rescue system) : 12,550 ships that represent very well the international merchant fleet. Advantage ship type and size can be identified. The spatial resolution of the data is 1°x1°. GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMISSIONS

VOC from crude oil carriers: 

VOC from crude oil carriers

Environmental impact: 

Environmental impact Perturbations of the global distribution of ozone, methane, sulfate and nitrogen compounds were estimated using the global 3-D OSLO CTM2 (tropospheric version) with interactive ozone and sulfate chemistry. T42 40 layers ECMWF meteorological fields for 1997 Online chemistry - 51 components - 102 chemical reactions Emissions - Edgar v2.0 (1995->1997) for anthropogenic - Mostly Muller for natural (agreed in POET) - Ship Veritas Simulations - Basis without ship emissions - Ship emis. Of CO, NOx and SO2 included, using 3 difffernt distributions (Coads, PF, AMVER, new results adding together PF, AMVER. - VOC emissions from ships also included.

Slide10: 

Relative increase (given in ‰) in yearly average wet deposition of SO42- due to ship emissions (AMVER  No ship).

Slide11: 

Relative changes of global yearly averaged OH concentrations and methane lifetime compared to a simulation without ship emissions

Slide12: 

Calculations, global average change in concentrations and RF due to ship emissions * 1 DU= 1 Dobson Unit (2.7 x1016 molecules/cm2). The estimated ozone is from surface up to 323 hPa. ** The number has a feedback factor (impact of methane changes on its own lifetime) of 1.4 included.

Future plans/possible collaboration: 

Future plans/possible collaboration Simulations with new model version T42 (2.8x2.8), 40 layers Comparison with results using other ship emission inventories (Edgar, Corbett) Effects of reduced NOx emissions (30%). Effects of regulations of sulphur content in specific regions (Baltic Sea, North Sea) What would be the impact in 2020 assuming current increase and no regulations

Conclusions: 

Conclusions International fuel consumption by the cargo and passenger fleet is estimated to 132 Millions tonne (Mton) and 144 Mton for 1996 and 2000, respectively. Emissions estimated for seven exhaust gas compounds. Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitric oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOx) corresponds to about 2%, 10% and 4-5% of the global anthropogenic emissions, respectively. Alternative methods and data (COADS, AMVER and PF) for global distributions of emissions were discussed. The AMVER data set is found to best reflect the distributions of merchant ships in international trade, - indicates that 80 % of the traffic is in the Northern Hemisphere A separate model address VOC (Volatile Organic Compound) emissions from crude oil cargo tanks during transport and handling of 1300 Mton crude oil. The VOC emissions are estimated to close to 2 Mton, distributed on 85 defined ports and well defined ship routes.

Slide15: 

Ozone perturbations are highly non-linear, being most efficient in regions of low background pollution. Different data sets (e.g. AMVER, COADS) lead to highly different regional perturbations. Maximum perturbations of approximately 12 ppb is obtained in the North Atlantic and in the North Pacific during summer months. Global average sulfate loading increases with 2.9 %, while the increase is significantly larger over parts of Western Europe (up to 8 %). Increase in acidification is 3 and 10% in certain coastal areas.In contrast to the AMVER data the COADS data gives particularly large enhancements over the North Atlantic. Ship emission reduce methane lifetime by approximately 5 %. CO2 and O3 give positive RF, and CH4 and sulfate give negative forcing. The total RF is small (0.01 - 0.02 W/m2) connected with large uncertainties.