THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: AN ASSAULT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENVIRONMENT, PUBLIC SAFETY, SCIENCE, AND HUMAN CIVILIZATION ITSELF: THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: AN ASSAULT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENVIRONMENT, PUBLIC SAFETY, SCIENCE, AND HUMAN CIVILIZATION ITSELF A. Illarionov
Adviser to the President of Russia
National Press Club, Washington, DC,
October 1, 2004
© Institute of Economic Analysis
www.iea.ru
The Kyoto Protocol is supported by a minority of countries. The world majority (177 countries out of 210, or 85%) did not adopt Kyoto Protocol limits on CO2 emissions. Share of the UNFCCC Annex B countries in the world aggregates: The Kyoto Protocol is supported by a minority of countries. The world majority (177 countries out of 210, or 85%) did not adopt Kyoto Protocol limits on CO2 emissions. Share of the UNFCCC Annex B countries in the world aggregates Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, IMF.
CONCLUSION 1: The Kyoto Protocol is still far from universal. It is still supported by the world’s minority.: CONCLUSION 1: The Kyoto Protocol is still far from universal. It is still supported by the world’s minority. WHY? Because of its: - damage to prosperity, - damage to environment, - damage to public safety, - lack of scientific rationale, - lack of rationale for human civilization itself.
Kyoto’s economic rationale – or the lack thereof. : Kyoto’s economic rationale – or the lack thereof.
CO2 emissions are the result of energy consumption. Energy consumption and СО2 emissions in 124 countries, 1992-1999: CO2 emissions are the result of energy consumption. Energy consumption and СО2 emissions in 124 countries, 1992-1999 Source: World Resources Institute, International Energy Agency.
Energy consumption is basis for economic growth. Energy consumption and GDP growth in 124 countries, 1992-1999: Energy consumption is basis for economic growth. Energy consumption and GDP growth in 124 countries, 1992-1999 Source: World Resources Institute, IMF.
CO2 emissions are inalienable product of economic growth. GDP growth and СО2 emissions in 124 countries, 1992-1999: CO2 emissions are inalienable product of economic growth. GDP growth and СО2 emissions in 124 countries, 1992-1999 Source: International Energy Agency, IMF.
Therefore, mandatory limitations in CO2 emissions are incompatible with economic growth. CO2 emissions and GDP growth in 44 middle-income countries, 1991-2000: Therefore, mandatory limitations in CO2 emissions are incompatible with economic growth. CO2 emissions and GDP growth in 44 middle-income countries, 1991-2000 Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, IMF.
CONCLUSION 2: The Kyoto Protocol is harmful for economic growth. It is incompatible with sustainable development.: CONCLUSION 2: The Kyoto Protocol is harmful for economic growth. It is incompatible with sustainable development.
Theoretical Kuznets curve. Non-linearity of relation between level of economic development and carbon emissions.: Theoretical Kuznets curve. Non-linearity of relation between level of economic development and carbon emissions.
Actual Kuznets curve. Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions are particularly discriminatory against low- and middle-income economies.: Actual Kuznets curve. Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions are particularly discriminatory against low- and middle-income economies. Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, IMF.
Whereas high-income countries reduce their CO2 intensity of GDP as they grow, low- and middle-income countries first have to increase CO2 intensity of GDP as their GDP rises. CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in low-, middle- and high-income countries by decades, 1950-2000: Whereas high-income countries reduce their CO2 intensity of GDP as they grow, low- and middle-income countries first have to increase CO2 intensity of GDP as their GDP rises. CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in low-, middle- and high-income countries by decades, 1950-2000 Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, IMF.
CONCLUSION 3: The Kyoto Protocol is particularly discriminatory against low- and middle-income economies. It hinders fight against poverty.: CONCLUSION 3: The Kyoto Protocol is particularly discriminatory against low- and middle-income economies. It hinders fight against poverty.
Mandatory limitations in CO2 emissions are incompatible with GDP growth and wealth accumulation in developed economies, too. СО2 emission and GDP growth in 39 high-income countries, 1991-2000: Mandatory limitations in CO2 emissions are incompatible with GDP growth and wealth accumulation in developed economies, too. СО2 emission and GDP growth in 39 high-income countries, 1991-2000 Source: International Energy Agency, IMF.
Slide15: Impact of the Kyoto protocol on EU GDP in 2010 Source: Canes, E., Michael, 2002 (Oct). Economic Modeling of Climate Change Policy. www.iccfglobal.org
Limitations in CO2 emissions in developed economies are already associated with slow rise in emissions, but also with slow GDP growth and slow reduction of CO2 intensity of GDP.: Limitations in CO2 emissions in developed economies are already associated with slow rise in emissions, but also with slow GDP growth and slow reduction of CO2 intensity of GDP. Source: International Energy Agency, IMF.
CONCLUSION 4: The Kyoto Protocol in particular penalizes fast-growing economies. CONCLUSION 5: The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve higher economic efficiency as measured by a reduction in CO2 intensity of GDP.: CONCLUSION 4: The Kyoto Protocol in particular penalizes fast-growing economies. CONCLUSION 5: The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve higher economic efficiency as measured by a reduction in CO2 intensity of GDP.
Russia’s СО2 emission will exceed the 1990 level in 2007-2012. CO2 emissions (1990=100%): actual in 1990-2003 and forecasts for 2004-2020: Russia’s СО2 emission will exceed the 1990 level in 2007-2012. CO2 emissions (1990=100%): actual in 1990-2003 and forecasts for 2004-2020
Russia's Kyoto Cross. Under the Kyoto Protocol and government’s scenario of growth, after 2010 Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of CO2 quotas. Russia’s actual CO2 and forecasted emissions, and Kyoto limits for Russia (1st and next phases): Russia's Kyoto Cross. Under the Kyoto Protocol and government’s scenario of growth, after 2010 Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of CO2 quotas. Russia’s actual CO2 and forecasted emissions, and Kyoto limits for Russia (1st and next phases)
CONCLUSION 6: Under Kyoto, Russia will not be able to sell quotas on CO2 emissions.: CONCLUSION 6: Under Kyoto, Russia will not be able to sell quotas on CO2 emissions. CONCLUSION 7: Under Kyoto, doubling Russia’s GDP within 10 years is unattainable.
Worldwide, it’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbons to another energy base in a short period of time. World energy consumption by source of origin, 2000: Worldwide, it’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbons to another energy base in a short period of time. World energy consumption by source of origin, 2000 Source: World Resources Institute.
CONCLUSION 8: The Kyoto Protocol is based on technological illusions.: CONCLUSION 8: The Kyoto Protocol is based on technological illusions.
Slide23: According to the Kyoto Protocol, national and supranational bureaucratic monsters must be created.
They will ration emissions and therefore economic activity worldwide.
The fate of countries, industries, companies, and ultimately individuals around the world will depend on them.
CONCLUSION 9: From an economic point of view, the Kyoto system of mandatory restrictions and penalties is an Orwellian nightmare.: CONCLUSION 9: From an economic point of view, the Kyoto system of mandatory restrictions and penalties is an Orwellian nightmare.
Kyoto’s damage to the environment, biodiversity, public health, and fight against world hunger.: Kyoto’s damage to the environment, biodiversity, public health, and fight against world hunger.
Greenhouse gases are not toxic substances. Carbon dioxide is tasteless, scentless and invisible (unlike smoke from pipes on some TV screens).: Greenhouse gases are not toxic substances. Carbon dioxide is tasteless, scentless and invisible (unlike smoke from pipes on some TV screens).
Greenhouse gases (Annex A):
Carbon dioxide CO2
Methane CH4
Nitrous oxide N2O
Hydrofluorocarbons HFCs
Perfluorocarbons PFCs
Sulphur hexafluoride SF6
Toxic substances:
Benzapiren
Formaldehyde
Benzol
Hydrogen sulphide SH
Mercaptan
Lead Pb
Nitric oxide NO
Nitrogen dioxide NO2
Carbon oxide СO
= ?
СО2 emissions and air pollutant emissions are moving in different directions in Russia. CО2 and air pollutant emissions in 1990-2003 as % of CO2 emissions index (1990 = 100%) in Russia, 1990-2003: СО2 emissions and air pollutant emissions are moving in different directions in Russia. CО2 and air pollutant emissions in 1990-2003 as % of CO2 emissions index (1990 = 100%) in Russia, 1990-2003 Source: Russia’s Federal Statistics Service.
СО2 emissions and air pollutant emissions are moving in different directions in the USA, too. CО2 and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), 1971-2001: СО2 emissions and air pollutant emissions are moving in different directions in the USA, too. CО2 and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), 1971-2001 Source: Statistical Abstract of the USA 2003.
CONCLUSION 10: Mandatory limitations on CO2 emissions do not make environment better. On the contrary, they distract public attention and divert limited resources from addressing real problems of environment pollution.: CONCLUSION 10: Mandatory limitations on CO2 emissions do not make environment better. On the contrary, they distract public attention and divert limited resources from addressing real problems of environment pollution.
Rise in СО2 concentration in atmosphere does not lead to increase in number of respiratory diseases. СО2 concentration in atmosphere and number of fatalities from respiratory diseases in Russia, 1959-2003: Rise in СО2 concentration in atmosphere does not lead to increase in number of respiratory diseases. СО2 concentration in atmosphere and number of fatalities from respiratory diseases in Russia, 1959-2003 Источники: CDIAC, ФСС РФ.
Rise in temperature does not lead to increase in number of respiratory diseases, too. Air temperature and number of fatalities from respiratory diseases in Russia, 1959-2003: Rise in temperature does not lead to increase in number of respiratory diseases, too. Air temperature and number of fatalities from respiratory diseases in Russia, 1959-2003 Source: Russia’s meteorological centre, FSS RF.
CONCLUSION 11: CO2 emissions and temperature are negatively correlated with fatalities from respiratory diseases. Therefore, mandatory limitations on CO2 emissions and fight against “global warming” can not improve state of health. Moreover, they distract public attention and divert limited resources from addressing real problems of health care.: CONCLUSION 11: CO2 emissions and temperature are negatively correlated with fatalities from respiratory diseases. Therefore, mandatory limitations on CO2 emissions and fight against “global warming” can not improve state of health. Moreover, they distract public attention and divert limited resources from addressing real problems of health care.
Higher СО2 concentration in atmosphere does not make biodiversity poorer. CO2 emissions per square km and number of threatened birds as % of known species in 1990s (125 countries): Higher СО2 concentration in atmosphere does not make biodiversity poorer. CO2 emissions per square km and number of threatened birds as % of known species in 1990s (125 countries) Source: World Resources 2002-2004. World Resources Institute; International Energy Agency.
CONCLUSION 12: CO2 does not destroy biodiversity, and the Kyoto protocol does not defend it.: CONCLUSION 12: CO2 does not destroy biodiversity, and the Kyoto protocol does not defend it.
Slide35: Источник: Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Arthur B. Robinson, Sallie L. Baliunas, Willie Soon, and Zachary W. Robinson, 1998; http://www.oism.org/ Moreover, higher СО2 concentration leads to higher productivity of plants. Plants productivity under different levels of СО2 concentration
CONCLUSION 13: CO2 emissions and rise in temperature make plants and animals more productive and the whole fauna more diverse. The Kyoto Protocol limits plants productivity and biodiversity, and therefore it is impediment in solving the problem of world hunger. : CONCLUSION 13: CO2 emissions and rise in temperature make plants and animals more productive and the whole fauna more diverse. The Kyoto Protocol limits plants productivity and biodiversity, and therefore it is impediment in solving the problem of world hunger.
Kyoto’s detriment to fight natural hazards.: Kyoto’s detriment to fight natural hazards.
The most effective defense against natural hazards in the USA is growth of prosperity. GDP per capita and fatalities from natural hazards in the USA, 1940-2003: The most effective defense against natural hazards in the USA is growth of prosperity. GDP per capita and fatalities from natural hazards in the USA, 1940-2003 Source: US National Statistics.
Prosperity growth is also the most effective defense against natural hazards worldwide, especially in poor countries. GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries, 1985-1996: Prosperity growth is also the most effective defense against natural hazards worldwide, especially in poor countries. GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries, 1985-1996 Source: United Nations.
CONCLUSION 14: The Kyoto Protocol limits growth of prosperity, the ultimate weaponry to effectively battle the consequences of natural hazards. : CONCLUSION 14: The Kyoto Protocol limits growth of prosperity, the ultimate weaponry to effectively battle the consequences of natural hazards.
Rationale for human civilization of fight against the “global warming” – or the lack thereof. : Rationale for human civilization of fight against the “global warming” – or the lack thereof.
Mortality in many countries is sensitive to cold air temperature. Russia’s mortality seasonal deviations, 1997-2003 : Mortality in many countries is sensitive to cold air temperature. Russia’s mortality seasonal deviations, 1997-2003 Calculations based on data from Russia’s Federal Statistical Service.
Slide43: Human civilization emerged only during
the last 12,000 year-long global warming
which followed 107,000 year-long ice age.
Temperature variability over last 415 000 years. Source: Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis M., Delague G., Delmotte M., Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.Ya., Lorius C., Pepin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, vol. 399, N 6735, 3 June 1999, pp. 429-436.
CONCLUSION 15: For thousands of years, warm climate has been and still is a crucial factor of the progress of human civilization. : CONCLUSION 15: For thousands of years, warm climate has been and still is a crucial factor of the progress of human civilization.
Slide45: For 14% of the last 415 thousand years global temperature was above its current level.
For the 86% of the last 415 thousand years global temperature was lower than its current level.
Global temperature last peaked 9,000 years ago,
and then embarked on a long-term downward trend.
Slide46: FINAL CONCLUSION:
Kyoto-ism is the most broad-based, the most
intrusive and the most aggressive assault on
economic growth, fight against poverty, health,
environment, biodiversity, public safety, science,
and one of the key pillars of origin and progress
of the human civilization itself.