The energy challenges of the 21st century Mastering Technology Enterprise Thun 28 september 2006: The energy challenges of the 21st century Mastering Technology Enterprise Thun 28 september 2006 Hans B. (Teddy) Püttgen
Professeur - Chaire, Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques
Directeur - Centre Interdisciplinaire de l’Energie
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - EPFL
et
Past-President, IEEE Power Engineering Society
Background: Background The industrial revolution started during the 19th century with the advent of the steam engine burning coal.
The advent of electricity enabled and fueled the economic development during the 20th century.
The information and communications revolution happened during the second half of the 20th century with the broad deployment of the semiconductors.
The transportation revolution also happened during the 20th century enabled by the high energy density of petroleum.
The world has truly become a village - we can communicate enormous amounts of information quasi-instantly and we can travel to all corners of the world within a few hours.
21st R & D drivers: 21st R & D drivers By the year 2050, the world’s population will have increased to 9.1 billion an increase of 2.6 billion from the 2005 situation. United Nations – 2004 data.
Not only will the population grow dramatically, but its geographical distribution will also evolve:
Europe’s population will decrease to 650 from 730 million at present.
Africa’s population will explode to 1,940 million from 910 at present.
Asia’s population will grow to 5.2 billion from 3.9 billion at present.
By 2050 India is expected to have a population of 1.6 billion surpassing that of China at 1.4 billion.
21st R & D drivers - 2: 21st R & D drivers - 2 The end of the petroleum era of man’s presence on earth will come during the 21st century.
While we can not predict the exact date, there is broad agreement that the peak production of petroleum will occur some time during the 21st century.
At $60-$70 per barrel, the cost of petroleum is close to being the highest it has ever been and will encourage the deployment the more expensive extraction technologies.
The recent discovery of the «Jack» oil field in the Gulf of Mexico will increase the US reserves by 50%.
The era of inexpensive petroleum is definitely behind us. Indeed, future price structures will be cost driven as opposed to market driven.
Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century: Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century Availability and broad access of reliable and affordable health services world-wide.
While developed countries are rapidly running into a major crisis in terms of the cost of health services, developing countries are struggling to gain access to health services to address immediate and very large scale health crisis.
The canyon between the “have” and “have-nots” is widened by the fact that most preventative medical services, including medicines, are brought to market by corporations from developed countries and at costs which are often beyond the means of developing countries.
Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 2: Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 2 Production and distribution of food world-wide.
At present, developed countries are generally the largest food producers in the world.
Increasing standards of living in developed countries, coupled with intensifying competition on the world market, which drives prices down, result in heavy government subsidies provided by developed countries to their farmers.
The latest round of WTO negotiations, failed due to significant tensions between poor countries which are demanding that rich countries stop subsidizing their farmers in an effort to “level the playing field”.
Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 3: Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 3 3. Production, transport and delivery of energy.
This is probably the one area where humanity will have to consent to the heaviest investments during the second part of this century.
Slide8:
Key statistics
Key statistics - 1: Key statistics - 1 Total Primary Energy Supply – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
1973 2003 Δ %
Oil 31.6*103 42.3*103 34
Coal 17.4*103 30.0*103 72
Natural Gas 11.4*103 26.1*103 129
Hydro 1.3*103 2.7*103 114
Nuclear 0.6*103 8.0*103 1’166
Comb. Renew & Waste 7.9*103 13.3*103 69
Other (wind, solar, geothermal,..) 0.07*103 0.6*103 777
Total 70*103 123*103 75
Key statistics - 2: Key statistics - 2 Total Primary Energy Supply – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
1973 2003 Δ %
OECD 43.8*103 62.6*103 43
Non-OECD Europe 1.1*103 1.2*103 10
Former USSR 10.1*103 11.2*103 11
Asia 4.3*103 14.3*103 233
China 5.1*103 16.6*103 229
Latin America 2.6*103 5.4*103 108
Africa 2.5*103 6.5*103 165
Middle East 0.8*103 5.3*103 569
Total 70*103 123*103 75
Key statistics - 3: Key statistics - 3 Total Energy Consumption – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
1973 2003 Δ %
Oil 24.9*103 36.1*103 45
Coal 7.2*103 6.3*103 -13
Natural Gas 7.8*103 13.9*103 78
Comb. Renew & Waste 7.7*103 11.9*103 55
Electricity 5.1*103 13.6*103 168
Other (wind, solar, geothermal,..) 0.9*103 3.0*103 226
Total 53*103 85*103 58
Key statistics - 4: Key statistics - 4 Total Energy Consumption – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
1973 2003 Δ %
OECD 33.1*103 43.6*103 32
Non-OECD Europe 0.8*103 0.7*103 -5
Former USSR 6.9*103 7.2*103 5
Asia 3.8*103 10.3*103 170
China 4.3*103 10.4*103 143
Latin America 2.0*103 4.2*103 108
Africa 2.3*103 4.8*103 115
Middle East 0.5*103 3.4*103 603
Total 53*103 85*103 58
Key statistics - 5: Key statistics - 5 Per Capita world-wide energy consumption – million of BTU
1982 2002 Δ %
North America 264.9 278.5 5.1
Latin America 37.9 48.8 28.8
Western Europe 127.9 149.0 16.5
Eastern Europe & former USSR 173.1 134.6 -22.2
Middle East 65.1 105.8 62.5
Africa 15.4 15.3 0.0
Asia & Oceania 19.9 33.3 67.3
Total 61.7 65.9
Switzerland key statistics - 1: Switzerland key statistics - 1 Total energy utilization in 2002: 323 TWh
Petroleum 45.6%
Gross hydro 14.1%
Nuclear fuel 24.1%
Natural gas 9.0%
Other 7.2%
End-use consumption in 2002: 273 TWh
Fuel 32.7%
Combustibles 25.5%
Electricity 22.8%
Natural gas 11.4%
Other 7.6%
Switzerland key statistics - 2: Switzerland key statistics - 2 End-use distribution in 2002
Transportation 33.9%
Households 27.7%
Industry 19.7%
Services 17.1%
Agriculture & other 1.6%
Electric power production in 2002
Nuclear 39.5%
Hydro - storage 29.1%
Hydro – run of the river 27.1%
Thermal and other 4.3%
Slide16:
Energy production
Present generation mix: Present generation mix To-day, the primary generation technologies are:
Hydro, either run-of-the-river facilities or various types of dams.
Thermal, using either coal, oil or gas.
Nuclear.
The present generation mix already is:
Distributed.
Significantly renewable.
Hydro: Hydro China:
Three Grorges: 19GW
New plant under construction: 40GW
Africa – Congo river
Planned - Grand Inga: 40GW
Hydro: Hydro Installed capacity
United States
Canada
Brazil
China
Japan
Russia
Percentage of production
Norway 98%
Brazil 84%
Venezuela 66%
Canada 58%
Russia 17%
China 15% Largest producers
Canada
Brazil
United States
China
Russia
Norway
Japan
India
France
Venezuela
Hydro: Hydro Fully renewable and low ecological impact.
In industrialized countries, almost all feasible sites have been developed – the potential incremental capacity is very low.
The only potential incremental energy capacity is by way of conversion of existing storage facilities to pumped-storage.
Hydro: Hydro
Very significant incremental capacities are available in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Development will come at heavy ecological and societal impacts. Some of the ecological impact will go beyond regional to become world-wide.
ISSUE: World-wide environmental and ecological public policy – major research needed.
Fossil fuels - coal: Fossil fuels - coal Largest exporters
Australia
Indonesia
China
South Africa
Russia
Columbia
Largest importers
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
Germany
UK
India Largest producers
China
United States
India
Australia
South Africa
Russia
Indonesia
Poland
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Fossil Fuel - Coal: Fossil Fuel - Coal Heavy environmental impact.
Technologies are available to significantly mitigate the environmental impact; they are also very expensive to implement & operate.
The large scale deployment of CO2 sequestration and utilization technologies are starting to become feasible
ISSUES: Can industrialized countries impose such technologies on emerging countries?
Potential of
Coal liquefaction - gazeification
Combined energy use
Fossil fuels - petroleum: Fossil fuels - petroleum Largest exporters
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Norway
Iran
Nigeria
Venezuela
Largest importers
United States
Japan
Korea
Germany
Italy
Chine Largest producers
Saudi Arabia
Russia
United States
Iran
Mexico
Chine
Venezuela
Norway
Canada
Nigeria
Fossil Fuel - Oil: Fossil Fuel - Oil The “lust” of industrialized countries for oil is the major reason for the increasing tensions world wide.
There is broad agreement that the production of oil will peak sometime during the 21st century.
ISSUES: When do we start focusing on the use of carbon as a material as opposed to as fuel?
What new extraction technologies become feasible as the price per barrel increases?
Additional reserves available using Ehanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques – using CO2 well injections?
What is the potential of oil-shales?
Fossil fuels – natural gas: Fossil fuels – natural gas Largest exporters
Russia
Canada
Norway
Algeria
Netherlands
Turkmenistan
Largest importers
United States
Germany
Japan
Italy
Ukraine
France Largest Producers
Russia
United States
Canada
UK
Algeria
Netherlands
Norway
Iran
Indonasia
Saudi Arabia
Fossil fuels – natural gas: Fossil fuels – natural gas Environmentally more friendly.
Transportation is technologically “cumbersome” and requires heavy infrastructures.
Heavy investments in distribution infrastructures are under way in Switzerland.
ISSUE: Will we be able to continue to build liquid gas harbor sites close to heavy consumption centers?
Political impact of the new producers on the international scene?
Nuclear: Nuclear 441 power plants are under operation in 31 countries
136 in Western Europe – 59 in France
128 in North America – 104 in the United States
89 in Asia
70 in the former USSR and Eastern Europe
16 in India and Pakistan
2 in Africa
16% of the world-wide electricity production
80% in France
28% in Germany
20% in the United States
Less than 5% in China
Nuclear: Nuclear Heavy legacy impact.
Public policies in industrialized countries have rendered construction of new facilities unrealistic.
The pebble bed technology could provide a solution to build highly modular plants.
Countries with emerging economies want to construct nuclear power plants using existing technologies.
ISSUE: How can industrialized countries “monitor” suc developments?
When and where will the next nuclear power plant be built in the United States, in Switzerland, in Germany, …..
Hydro, Fossil & Nuclear: Hydro, Fossil & Nuclear How do we site the new facilities?
What organization makes the decision and then assumes it?
The financing of large generation facilities have reached a scale often beyond the capabilities of the private sector.
The construction and operation of the required transmission systems are increasingly in “limbo”.
China is adding 60 000 MW per year of new electric power generation capacity.
Some forecasts state that in 20 years we will go from 3 700 GW to 6 000 GW of installed electricity generation capacity.
Bio-Fuel: Bio-Fuel Bio-fuels have an enormous potential world-wide. Brazil is the leading implementation country.
Regions with strong agriculture and emerging economies can potentially leverage their position by exporting finished product.
The transportation industry must embrace bio-fuels.
The base crop used must be adapted to regional conditions.
Competition with food production must be avoided.
Industrialized countries must settle their national subsidy policies as well as their import regulations.
Bio-Fuel: Bio-Fuel A labeling-certification process, taking ecological, fair trade issues, labor conditions, and grey energy contents into account, must be broadly agreed upon and implemented before significant market penetration will occur.
Alternative Generation Technologies: Alternative Generation Technologies Renewable
Solar, photovoltaic or thermal
Wind
Geothermal
Ocean
Non-renewable
Internal combustion engine, ICE
Combined cycle
Combustion turbine
Micro-turbines
Fuel cell
Renewables - Photovoltaïc: Renewables - Photovoltaïc Photovoltaic installation – 350 kW
Renewables - Photovoltaïc: Renewables - Photovoltaïc Environmentally very friendly.
Installed capacities remain limited but growth is strong: 1 GW per year or 30-50% per year.
Capacity costs will remain high.
$5,000 / installed kW
The most appropriate short-term application might be in conjunction with other technologies such as Fuel Cells.
Photovoltaics does not have the potential to displace the need for installed capacity – it may only displace energy production thereby rendering existing fossil-fueled plants more expensive to operate.
Renewables - Wind: Renewables - Wind
Renewables - Wind: Renewables - Wind Very rapid market penetration during past years – 10GW growth per year / 10-30% per year.
59,000 MW of installed capacity world-wide.
18,500 MW in Germany
10,000 MW in Spain
9,000 MW in the United States
Large manufacturers, such as Siemens and GE are heavy market participants.
Renewables - Wind: Renewables - Wind Perceived as environmentally very friendly.
Significant noise pollution: 60 dB @ 30 m.
The installed capacity per machine is increasing – 3MW.
The capacity cost is attractive – under $2,000/kW
Installation of large wind farms is attractive but technically not easy.
Wind power does not have the potential to displace the need for installed capacity – it may only displace energy production thereby rendering existing fossil-fueled plants more expensive to operate.
Should be implemented in conjunction with large storage systems – pumped hydro?
Renewables - Geothermal: Renewables - Geothermal The geothermal energy resources are virtually limitless.
It is environmentally friendly.
Geothermal energy can be readily controlled as required for deployment within an integrated energy supply chain.
It can be installed for residential, commercial and industrial facilities.
Currently, a large demonstration site is under construction in Basel – drillling t0 5 000 m is under way under the Rhine.
Large-scale electricity production has been on-going for decades in the Geysers area in California, for example.
Renewables - Geothermal: Renewables - Geothermal
Alternative sources – Fuel cells : Alternative sources – Fuel cells 200 kW fuel cell from United Technologies for the combined production of electricity and heat.
Alternative sources – Fuel cells : Alternative sources – Fuel cells Perceived as environmentally very friendly.
Requires local hydrogen storage or reformer installation.
The installed capacities range from a few tens of kW to a few tens of MW.
The capacity costs are already compatible with large scale deployment: $1,000 - $5,000 per kW.
Fuel cells can and will contribute to the installed capacity mix.
ISSUE: Viability of the Hydrogen economy – large scale implementation without nuclear questionable.
Alternative sources – Microturbines : Alternative sources – Microturbines 30 kW Microturbine
Alternative sources – Microturbines : Alternative sources – Microturbines Not yet on the radar screen as far as public perception is concerned.
Installed capacities range from 1 few tens of kW to a few MW. Individual units can be combined together to create larger capacities.
Small physical size provides for convenient installation within buildings.
Capital costs: $300 – $1,400 per kW.
Micro Turbines can and will contribute to the installed capacity mix – on a localized basis.
Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century: Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century Dream of generating energy from Deuterium (omnipresent in water) and Tritium (from Lithium – tens of thousands of years of reserves).
Tokamak TCV at
CRPP - EPFL
Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century: Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century Several major R&D efforts are on-going:
ITER at Cadarache iun France
Broader approach, in Japan
University centers
EPFL at Centre de Recherch pour la Physique des Plasma
TU Münich at Garching
Joint European Torus – JET, in the UK
Many difficult hurdles must still be overcome before broad commercial deployment will be possible.
Very high temperatures required: 100 M 0C
Materials resistance over longer time: radiation and temperature.
Plasma heating and containment technologies
Slide47:
End use
Swiss vision on the end-use side : Swiss vision on the end-use side 2 000 Watt society.
2 000 Watt society : 2 000 Watt society Three cities are participating in pilot programs:
Basel
Zürich
Lucern
The main R&D focus is on:
Building technologies, including natural light utilization for lighting purposes.
Transportation technologies
Water management, especially within commercial and retail facilities.
Pro-active implementation of new codes and public policies
Evolution of the 2 000 Watt society : Evolution of the 2 000 Watt society
Hybrid vehicles : Hybrid vehicles Combination of internal combustion engine with an on-board electric energy generation and storage.
Consumptions of 3 liter/km are possible using present diesel technologies.
Gasoline or diesel engines can be used.
Two main architectures:
Series
Parallel
Major market players:
Toyota Honda
Ford Peugeot
Hybrid vehicles - series : Hybrid vehicles - series Engine never idles
Engine drives the on-board generator and can operate at maximum efficiency.
Many practical implementation options
Hybrid vehicles - parallel : Hybrid vehicles - parallel Smaller engines can be used.
The internalé combustion engine and the electric motor share the propulsion duties for the vehicle.
Complex transmission systems are required
Power can be directed to the wheels.
A generator may not
be required
Slide54:
System integration
System Integration : System Integration Most of the emerging distributed generation technologies will be implemented at the distribution level.
R & D: Evolution of the distribution system from a feeder/radial configuration to a network configuration – this evolution will also be driven by the need for “premium power”.
R & D: Who will the distribution system operators be as the system complexity increases?
R & D: Need for ultra-fast switching.
Need for very high current interruption.
System Integration Technical “opportunities” : System Integration Technical “opportunities” Power quality
Impact of various power electronic interface devices.
System Integration Technical “opportunities” : System Integration Technical “opportunities” Power quality
Reactive power coordination and voltage support.
System Integration Technical “opportunities” : System Integration Technical “opportunities” Power quality
Reactive power coordination and voltage support.
Reliability
Reserve margin: not all technologies will contribute to the installed capacity
Redundancy
System Integration Technical “opportunities” : System Integration Technical “opportunities” Power quality
Reactive power coordination and voltage support.
Reliability
Reserve margin: not all technologies will contribute to the installed capacity
Redundancy
Safety
Bi-directional energy flow on distribution systems
System Integration Technical “opportunities” : System Integration Technical “opportunities” Power quality
Reactive power coordination and voltage support.
Reliability
Reserve margin: not all technologies will contribute to the installed capacity
Redundancy
Safety
Security
Protection of the T & D infrastructure against outside threats.
Construction of “self-healing” systems.
System Integration Control systems: System Integration Control systems Need for integrated controls.
As the penetration of alternative generation reaches levels where its installed capacity and/or energy production becomes significant, the need for integrated controls becomes paramount.
Need for ubiquitous and bi-directional communications
Integration of “off the shelve” IT technologies.
This is perhaps THE biggest challenge faced by all manufacturers.
Security and resiliency against external threats.
System Integration System concerns : System Integration System concerns Asset Management
Maximize utilization of existing assets
Cost avoidance
Cost delays
Diagnostics
Non-intrusive and reliable diagnostics
Data collection, storage and sorting
System Integration Materials : System Integration Materials Superconductivity
After superconducting magnet and energy storage applications, which are already being commercially deployed, which application will first see a breakthrough: fault current limiters?
Insulation
Underground cable systems
Fast - solid state switching
Conductors
Intelligent - variable resistance
Slide64:
Public Policy and Economics
Public Policy : Public Policy
“It’s the economy, stupid”
Bill Clinton’s campaign staff overall strategy call
Public Policy : Public Policy
“It’s public policy, stupid”
Public policy will dictate the level, the type, the spectrum and the eventual success of alternative generation.
Public Policy : Public Policy
Public policy will dictate the level, the type, the spectrum and the eventual success of alternative generation.
A successful energy public policy must be:
Global in scope and coordination.
Regional in actual formulation and implementation.
R & D: Need to create systematic approach to measure the financial and societal impacts of Public Polic proposals.
Slide68:
Conclusions
Conclusions - 1 : Conclusions - 1 Modern energy systems require very heavy investments and are highly complex to design and operate.
They are crucial infrastructures for the economic development of countries and the well-being of populations all over the world.
One of the major challenges of this century will be the development of energy production and distribution systems which are reliable, affordable and sustainable - electricity is already at the core of these issues and will so remain.
Conclusions - 2 : Conclusions - 2 Significant challenges remain to be resolved
Integration of new energy sources.
Design of transport and distribution systems which are resilient against external threats and economical to operate.
Implementation of energy end-use techologies which have acceptable environmental impact levels and which are affordable for the population at large.
World-wide cooperation will be essential.
The world is interconnected by way of the environment.
More than ever, we need well-educated and highly motivated young professionals to address and resolve the energy challenges of the future.
The energy challenges of the 21st century Mastering Technology Enterprise Thun 28 september 2006: The energy challenges of the 21st century Mastering Technology Enterprise Thun 28 september 2006 Hans B. (Teddy) Püttgen
Professeur - Chaire, Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques
Directeur - Centre Interdisciplinaire de l’Energie
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - EPFL
et
Past-President, IEEE Power Engineering Society